Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for WILLA-18 in Mexico from 20 Oct 2018 09:00 UTC to 24 Oct 2018 12:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for WILLA-18

in Mexico

24 Oct 2018 12 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone WILLA-18 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Glide number:	TC-2018-000168-MEX
Exposed countries	Mexico
Exposed population	190 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	250 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.9 m (24 Oct 01:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	37 km/h	0.9 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	250 km/h	0.9 m	n.a.	2.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

37 km/h Current Max.

Up to 3.2 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert	N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
	18	24 Oct 2018 12:00	37	3.2 million	190 thousand	Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	20 Oct 2018 06:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	15.1, -104.5
2	20 Oct 2018 12:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	14.7, -105.4
3	20 Oct 2018 18:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	15.1, -105.5
4	21 Oct 2018 00:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	15.5, -105.9
5	21 Oct 2018 06:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	16, -106.3
6	21 Oct 2018 12:00	Category 1	148	no people	no people	16.4, -106.6
7	21 Oct 2018 18:00	Category 2	176	no people	no people	16.8, -106.9
8	22 Oct 2018 00:00	Category 4	222	no people	no people	17.5, -107.1
9	22 Oct 2018 06:00	Category 4	250	no people	no people	17.9, -107.1
10	22 Oct 2018 12:00	Category 5	259	no people	11000 people	18.7, -107.2	Mexico
11	22 Oct 2018 18:00	Category 5	259	no people	460000 people	19.4, -107.2	Mexico
12	23 Oct 2018 00:00	Category 4	241	6300 people	1.3 million people	20.2, -107.3	Mexico
13	23 Oct 2018 06:00	Category 4	222	6300 people	1.9 million people	20.6, -107.3	Mexico
14	23 Oct 2018 12:00	Category 3	204	140000 people	2 million people	21.1, -107.1	Mexico
15	23 Oct 2018 18:00	Category 3	194	180000 people	2.5 million people	21.7, -106.7	Mexico
16	24 Oct 2018 00:00	Category 3	194	880000 people	2.7 million people	22.6, -106	Mexico
17	24 Oct 2018 06:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	6.4 million people	23.8, -104.6	Mexico
18	24 Oct 2018 12:00	Tropical depression	37	no people	no people	25, -102.7	Mexico
18	25 Oct 2018 00:00	Tropical depression	37	no people	no people	27.6, -98.4	United States

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Mexico

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Durango	Mexico
Coahuila	Mexico
Zacatecas	Mexico
Jalisco	Mexico
Nayarit	Mexico
Sinaloa	Mexico

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Juan Aldama	Zacatecas	Mexico	City	14000 people
Miguel Auza	Durango	Mexico	City	13000 people
Sombrerete	Zacatecas	Mexico	City	19000 people
Ialchihuites	Zacatecas	Mexico	City	-
Durango	Durango	Mexico	Major city	450000 people
Acaponeta	Nayarit	Mexico	City	18000 people
Tecuala	Nayarit	Mexico	City	15000 people
Escuinapa	Sinaloa	Mexico	City	28000 people
Villa Unión	Sinaloa	Mexico	City	13000 people
Mazatlan	Sinaloa	Mexico	Major city	330000 people
Tuxpan	Nayarit	Mexico	City	23000 people
Santiago Ixcuintla	Nayarit	Mexico	City	-
Tepic	Nayarit	Mexico	Major city	280000 people
Compostela	Nayarit	Mexico	City	16000 people
Punta Mita	Nayarit	Mexico	City	-
Puerto Vallarta	Jalisco	Mexico	City	190000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Sombrerete		2345				0
Guadalupe Victoria	DGO	1857	Civ.	Paved	Yes	9500
Rancho El Durangueno		2500				0
La Candelaria del Alto		1940				0
Acaponeta		84				0
Rancho los Cabras		3				0
Teacapan		6				0
General Rafael Buelna International	MZT	10	Civ.	Paved	Yes	8800
Tepic	TPQ	960	Civ.	Paved	Yes	7500
San Blas		3				0
El Llano		12				0
Isla Maria Madre		5				0
Lic Gustavo Diaz Ordaz International	PVR	6	Civ.	Paved	Yes	10100
La Gloria		34				0

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Mazatlan	MXMZT	Mexico
San Blas	MXSBS	Mexico
Puerto Vallarta	MXPVR	Mexico
Ipala		Mexico

Dams

Reservoir	Dam Name	River	Year
	G. Franci	Poanas	1968
	Presa Pena del Aguila	LaSauceda	1955
	Presa Guadalupe Victoria	Tunal	1962
Agua Milpa	Agua Milpa	Santiago	1994
	El Salto	Elota	1985

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.9 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.9m in Isla de Palmito del Verde, Mexico. This height is estimated for 24 Oct 2018 01:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (14 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 17 of 24 Oct 2018 06:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	24 Oct 2018 01:00	Isla de Palmito del Verde	Mexico	0.9
	24 Oct 2018 01:00	Novillero	Mexico	0.8
	24 Oct 2018 01:00	Cuantla	Mexico	0.8
	24 Oct 2018 01:00	La Puerta	Mexico	0.7
	24 Oct 2018 00:00	Cuamecate	Mexico	0.7
	23 Oct 2018 23:00	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.5
	24 Oct 2018 01:00	Jarilla	Mexico	0.5
	23 Oct 2018 23:00	El Nuevo	Mexico	0.5
	23 Oct 2018 23:00	Toro Mocho	Mexico	0.4
	24 Oct 2018 01:00	Caimanero	Mexico	0.3
	23 Oct 2018 23:00	San Blas	Mexico	0.2
	24 Oct 2018 01:00	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	24 Oct 2018 01:00	La Palmita	Mexico	0.1
	24 Oct 2018 02:00	Barron	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.