Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for PENNY-18
in Australia, Papua New Guinea
01 Jan 2019 06 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
  • GDACS JTWC
Impact Single TC
  • GFS
  • HWRF
  • ECMWF
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone PENNY-18 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Exposed countries Australia, Papua New Guinea
    Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 120 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 1.6 m (01 Jan 01:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability High (Papua New Guinea)

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 120 km/h 1.1 m n.a. 0.5
    Overall 120 km/h 1.6 m n.a. 0.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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    Wind

      120 km/h Current Max.

      Up to no people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 31 Dec 2018 00:00 102 330 thousand No people Australia, Papua New Guinea
        Green 2 31 Dec 2018 06:00 102 250 thousand No people Australia, Papua New Guinea
        Green 3 31 Dec 2018 12:00 102 320 thousand No people Australia, Papua New Guinea
        Green 4 31 Dec 2018 18:00 111 440 thousand No people Australia, Papua New Guinea
        Green 5 01 Jan 2019 00:00 111 70 thousand No people Australia, Papua New Guinea
        Green 6 01 Jan 2019 06:00 120 650 thousand No people Australia, Papua New Guinea

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 31 Dec 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 65 no people 18000 people -12.8, 139.6 Australia
          GREEN
          		 2 31 Dec 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 65 no people 7400 people -12.5, 139.3 Australia
          GREEN
          		 3 31 Dec 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 65 no people 18000 people -12.5, 140.2 Australia
          GREEN
          		 4 31 Dec 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people 19000 people -12.7, 140.6 Australia
          GREEN
          		 5 01 Jan 2019 00:00 Tropical storm 74 no people 19000 people -12.6, 141.2 Australia
          GREEN
          		 6 01 Jan 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people 14000 people -12.6, 142.3 Australia
          GREEN
          		 6 01 Jan 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 83 no people 470000 people -12.5, 144.3 Papua New Guinea
          GREEN
          		 6 02 Jan 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 93 no people 590000 people -12.9, 146.9 Papua New Guinea
          GREEN
          		 6 02 Jan 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 102 no people 150000 people -13.5, 150 Papua New Guinea
          GREEN
          		 6 03 Jan 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 111 no people 29000 people -14.2, 153.2 Papua New Guinea
          GREEN
          		 6 04 Jan 2019 06:00 Category 1 120 no people no people -16, 156.8
          GREEN
          		 6 05 Jan 2019 06:00 Category 1 120 no people no people -17.1, 156.2
          GREEN
          		 6 06 Jan 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people -18.7, 154.2
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

          TOP

          StormSurge

          1.6 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  1.6m in Tamarike, Indonesia. This height is estimated for 01 Jan 2019 01:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (238 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 6 of 01 Jan 2019 06:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          01 Jan 2019 01:00 Tamarike Indonesia  1.6
          01 Jan 2019 01:00 Sarire Indonesia  1.6
          01 Jan 2019 00:00 Kumbe Indonesia  1.5
          01 Jan 2019 01:00 Urum Indonesia  1.5
          01 Jan 2019 01:00 Merauke Indonesia  1.5
          01 Jan 2019 00:00 Anansai Indonesia  1.5
          01 Jan 2019 00:00 Wendu Indonesia  1.4
          01 Jan 2019 00:00 Matara Indonesia  1.4
          01 Jan 2019 00:00 Onggalie Indonesia  1.4
          01 Jan 2019 00:00 Kotad Indonesia  1.4
          01 Jan 2019 00:00 Dumande Indonesia  1.4
          01 Jan 2019 00:00 Alatepi Indonesia  1.3
          01 Jan 2019 04:00 Mapoon Australia  1.1
          31 Dec 2018 07:00 Taroea Anim Indonesia  1.1
          01 Jan 2019 07:00 Port Kennedy Australia  1.1
          01 Jan 2019 07:00 Hammond I Australia  1.1
          01 Jan 2019 06:00 Seisia Australia  1.1
          31 Dec 2018 23:00 Welab Indonesia  1.1
          01 Jan 2019 00:00 Alakoe Indonesia  1.1
          31 Dec 2018 23:00 Papisote Indonesia  1.0
          01 Jan 2019 06:00 Cowel Creek Australia  1.0
          01 Jan 2019 00:00 Moegaigare Indonesia  1.0
          01 Jan 2019 04:00 Jara Papua New Guinea  1.0
          01 Jan 2019 05:00 Bula Papua New Guinea  1.0
          01 Jan 2019 08:00 Badu Australia  1.0
          01 Jan 2019 07:00 Cape York Australia  1.0
          31 Dec 2018 11:00 Birab Indonesia  1.0
          01 Jan 2019 00:00 Okaba Indonesia  1.0
          31 Dec 2018 11:00 Otsjanep Indonesia  0.9
          31 Dec 2018 23:00 Gelib Indonesia  0.9
          01 Jan 2019 01:00 Kobiem Indonesia  0.9
          31 Dec 2018 11:00 Jow Indonesia  0.9
          31 Dec 2018 11:00 Biwarlaut Indonesia  0.9
          31 Dec 2018 11:00 Per Indonesia  0.9
          31 Dec 2018 11:00 Agats Indonesia  0.9
          31 Dec 2018 11:00 Amborip Indonesia  0.9
          31 Dec 2018 23:00 Wamal Indonesia  0.9
          31 Dec 2018 16:00 Kladar Indonesia  0.9
          31 Dec 2018 16:00 Sabon Indonesia  0.9
          31 Dec 2018 16:00 Tor Indonesia  0.9
          31 Dec 2018 10:00 Jofar Indonesia  0.9
          02 Jan 2019 00:00 Sidabadu Papua New Guinea  0.9
          31 Dec 2018 13:00 Dolatanden Indonesia  0.8
          31 Dec 2018 21:00 Komoran Indonesia  0.8
          01 Jan 2019 01:00 Alyangula Australia  0.7
          02 Jan 2019 00:00 Saibai Australia  0.7
          02 Jan 2019 00:00 Waidoro Papua New Guinea  0.7
          31 Dec 2018 21:00 Pasirputih Indonesia  0.7
          31 Dec 2018 20:00 Wan Indonesia  0.7
          31 Dec 2018 20:00 Konerau Indonesia  0.7
          31 Dec 2018 20:00 Selemit Indonesia  0.6
          01 Jan 2019 01:00 Numbulwar Australia  0.6
          01 Jan 2019 04:00 Weipa Australia  0.6
          01 Jan 2019 04:00 Weipa South Australia  0.6
          31 Dec 2018 10:00 Amamapare Indonesia  0.5
          31 Dec 2018 11:00 Ndapurutiri Indonesia  0.5
          31 Dec 2018 06:00 Sanindara Indonesia  0.4
          31 Dec 2018 09:00 Timuka Indonesia  0.4
          01 Jan 2019 02:00 Caburinga Village Australia  0.4
          31 Dec 2018 10:00 Keawkwa Indonesia  0.4
          31 Dec 2018 18:00 Running Creek Australia  0.4
          31 Dec 2018 10:00 Mimako Indonesia  0.4
          31 Dec 2018 06:00 Agatebi Indonesia  0.4
          31 Dec 2018 06:00 Sakaoeni Indonesia  0.4
          31 Dec 2018 10:00 Ipirawea Indonesia  0.4
          31 Dec 2018 06:00 Naoer Indonesia  0.4
          31 Dec 2018 06:00 Sajengga Indonesia  0.4
          31 Dec 2018 16:00 Basada Indonesia  0.4
          31 Dec 2018 16:00 Kobroor Indonesia  0.4
          31 Dec 2018 16:00 Masian Indonesia  0.4
          31 Dec 2018 16:00 Pono Indonesia  0.4
          31 Dec 2018 06:00 Moegoetira Indonesia  0.4
          31 Dec 2018 10:00 Amar Indonesia  0.4
          31 Dec 2018 08:00 Tanam Indonesia  0.3
          31 Dec 2018 10:00 Uta Indonesia  0.3
          31 Dec 2018 17:00 Aloszville Australia  0.3
          31 Dec 2018 06:00 Kamboeriami Indonesia  0.3
          31 Dec 2018 06:00 Aoem Indonesia  0.3
          31 Dec 2018 06:00 Tambani Indonesia  0.3
          01 Jan 2019 07:00 Nhulunbuy Australia  0.3
          31 Dec 2018 11:00 Wakia Indonesia  0.3
          31 Dec 2018 17:00 Longar Indonesia  0.3
          31 Dec 2018 17:00 Baimoeh Indonesia  0.3
          31 Dec 2018 06:00 Kinara Indonesia  0.3
          31 Dec 2018 16:00 Djoering Indonesia  0.3
          31 Dec 2018 17:00 Kobadangar Indonesia  0.3
          31 Dec 2018 11:00 Umuk Indonesia  0.3
          31 Dec 2018 17:00 Gomo Gomo Indonesia  0.3
          01 Jan 2019 04:00 Gove Australia  0.3
          01 Jan 2019 04:00 Yirrkala Mission Australia  0.3
          01 Jan 2019 04:00 Yirrkala Australia  0.3
          31 Dec 2018 16:00 Krai Indonesia  0.3
          01 Jan 2019 01:00 Ok Village Australia  0.3
          31 Dec 2018 11:00 Paraoka Indonesia  0.3
          31 Dec 2018 11:00 Kipia Maparpa Indonesia  0.3
          03 Jan 2019 06:00 Pantava Papua New Guinea  0.3
          01 Jan 2019 10:00 Doka Indonesia  0.2
          31 Dec 2018 16:00 Oud Krai Indonesia  0.2
          31 Dec 2018 16:00 Krei-lama Indonesia  0.2
          03 Jan 2019 08:00 Rewe Papua New Guinea  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 08:00 Kedjabi Indonesia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 18:00 Sege Indonesia  0.2
          03 Jan 2019 09:00 Tagula Papua New Guinea  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 08:00 Rabal Indonesia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 08:00 Kangoerma Indonesia  0.2
          31 Dec 2018 07:00 Kaisweri Indonesia  0.2
          03 Jan 2019 08:00 Madaua Papua New Guinea  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 11:00 Kulinchin Australia  0.2
          02 Jan 2019 08:00 Ture Ture Papua New Guinea  0.2
          31 Dec 2018 06:00 Saga Indonesia  0.2
          31 Dec 2018 07:00 Inanwatatan Indonesia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 08:00 Djamboeai Indonesia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 08:00 Barakan Indonesia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 01:00 Lower Tully Australia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 01:00 South Mission Beach Australia  0.2
          31 Dec 2018 15:00 Umari Indonesia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 09:00 Diommon Indonesia  0.2
          31 Dec 2018 15:00 Aiduna Indonesia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 11:00 Bendjoering Indonesia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 03:00 Coolbie Australia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 03:00 Halifax Australia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 03:00 Mutarnee Australia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 03:00 Cassady Australia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 03:00 Lucinda Australia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 03:00 Moongobulla Australia  0.2
          31 Dec 2018 16:00 Wadjin Indonesia  0.2
          03 Jan 2019 08:00 Griffin Point Papua New Guinea  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 01:00 Cooktown Australia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 11:00 Goemsei Indonesia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 11:00 Komfane Indonesia  0.2
          02 Jan 2019 01:00 Elim Australia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 11:00 Mohitien Indonesia  0.2
          31 Dec 2018 16:00 Potawai Indonesia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 21:00 Aibinio Papua New Guinea  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 02:00 Mossman Australia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 02:00 Miallo Australia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 02:00 Wonga Australia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 02:00 Port Douglas Australia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 02:00 Hockley Australia  0.2
          03 Jan 2019 09:00 Hekampan Papua New Guinea  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 11:00 Karaum Indonesia  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 06:00 Hamlet of Togo Papua New Guinea  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 06:00 Mabaduan Papua New Guinea  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 08:00 Kadawa Papua New Guinea  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 21:00 Keakalo Papua New Guinea  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 21:00 Gogsiba Papua New Guinea  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 21:00 Gadaisu Papua New Guinea  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 21:00 Bona Bona I Papua New Guinea  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 21:00 Auneri Papua New Guinea  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 21:00 Silo Silo Papua New Guinea  0.1
          01 Jan 2019 12:00 Alardjir Indonesia  0.1
          01 Jan 2019 11:00 Marlasi Indonesia  0.1
          01 Jan 2019 11:00 Masidan Indonesia  0.1
          01 Jan 2019 22:00 Ayton Australia  0.1
          01 Jan 2019 04:00 Rollingstone Australia  0.1
          01 Jan 2019 04:00 Kinduro Australia  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 04:00 Kamma Australia  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 04:00 Yarrabah Aboriginal Community Australia  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 07:00 Deeral Australia  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 07:00 Bellenden Ker Australia  0.1
          01 Jan 2019 10:00 Ngaibor Indonesia  0.1
          31 Dec 2018 17:00 Loetoer Indonesia  0.1
          01 Jan 2019 11:00 Sewer Indonesia  0.1
          01 Jan 2019 11:00 Karwai Indonesia  0.1
          01 Jan 2019 11:00 Keojabi Indonesia  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 16:00 Apeawa Papua New Guinea  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 16:00 Babai Papua New Guinea  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 16:00 Avioua Papua New Guinea  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 16:00 Veraibari Papua New Guinea  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 16:00 Tovai Papua New Guinea  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 16:00 Mirimairau Papua New Guinea  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 16:00 Uramu I Papua New Guinea  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 16:00 Kaivu Papua New Guinea  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 16:00 Mairipepea Papua New Guinea  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 16:00 Moravamu Papua New Guinea  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 16:00 Kamaua Papua New Guinea  0.1
          01 Jan 2019 11:00 Moha Indonesia  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 12:00 Iuku Papua New Guinea  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 12:00 Herekera Papua New Guinea  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 12:00 Haiara Papua New Guinea  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 12:00 Ihu Papua New Guinea  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 12:00 Vailala Hiloi Papua New Guinea  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 12:00 Iori Papua New Guinea  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 12:00 Vailala East Papua New Guinea  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 12:00 Karokaro Papua New Guinea  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 12:00 Opa Papua New Guinea  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 12:00 Belepa Papua New Guinea  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 04:00 Innisfail Australia  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 12:00 Kea Kea Papua New Guinea  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 12:00 Ovahuhu Papua New Guinea  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 12:00 Aivau Papua New Guinea  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 12:00 Kapide Papua New Guinea  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 12:00 Petoe Papua New Guinea  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 12:00 Murua Papua New Guinea  0.1
          05 Jan 2019 06:00 Te Kowai Australia  0.1
          05 Jan 2019 06:00 Rosella Australia  0.1
          05 Jan 2019 06:00 Chelona Australia  0.1
          05 Jan 2019 06:00 Glenella Australia  0.1
          05 Jan 2019 06:00 Bakers Creek Australia  0.1
          05 Jan 2019 06:00 North Mackay Australia  0.1
          05 Jan 2019 06:00 Mackay Australia  0.1
          05 Jan 2019 06:00 Cremorne Australia  0.1
          05 Jan 2019 06:00 Hay Point Australia  0.1
          05 Jan 2019 06:00 Taffy Islet Australia  0.1
          05 Jan 2019 06:00 Alligator Creek Australia  0.1
          31 Dec 2018 17:00 Rebi Indonesia  0.1
          01 Jan 2019 08:00 Kowanyama Australia  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 15:00 Boze Papua New Guinea  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 15:00 Ume Papua New Guinea  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 15:00 Daru Papua New Guinea  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 15:00 Dorogari Papua New Guinea  0.1
          01 Jan 2019 01:00 Trinity Beach Australia  0.1
          01 Jan 2019 12:00 Tarera Indonesia  0.1
          05 Jan 2019 06:00 Midgeton Australia  0.1
          05 Jan 2019 06:00 Etowri Australia  0.1
          05 Jan 2019 06:00 Nindaroo Australia  0.1
          05 Jan 2019 06:00 Bucasia Australia  0.1
          05 Jan 2019 06:00 Eimeo Australia  0.1
          05 Jan 2019 06:00 Andergrove Australia  0.1
          05 Jan 2019 06:00 Blacks Beach Australia  0.1
          05 Jan 2019 06:00 Slade Point Australia  0.1
          05 Jan 2019 06:00 Amhurst Australia  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 20:00 Kaduaga Papua New Guinea  0.1
          03 Jan 2019 01:00 Tegerauna Mission Papua New Guinea  0.1
          03 Jan 2019 01:00 Kasabanalua Papua New Guinea  0.1
          03 Jan 2019 01:00 Samarai Papua New Guinea  0.1
          03 Jan 2019 01:00 Sidudu Papua New Guinea  0.1
          03 Jan 2019 01:00 Magesina Papua New Guinea  0.1
          03 Jan 2019 01:00 Sideia I Papua New Guinea  0.1
          03 Jan 2019 08:00 Bwagimogimo Papua New Guinea  0.1
          03 Jan 2019 08:00 Rambuso Papua New Guinea  0.1
          01 Jan 2019 10:00 Fatural Indonesia  0.1
          01 Jan 2019 10:00 Jerdera Indonesia  0.1
          01 Jan 2019 10:00 Fekfekai Indonesia  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 12:00 Mamura Papua New Guinea  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 12:00 Kerema Papua New Guinea  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 12:00 Uamai No 1 Papua New Guinea  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 12:00 Elava Papua New Guinea  0.1