Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for DESMOND-19
in Mozambique, Malawi, Madagascar
GDACS
Impact Single TC
HWRF
ECMWF
GFS
Impact all weather systems in the area
.

Impact

Tropical Cyclone DESMOND-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (JTWC)
Exposed countries Mozambique, Malawi, Madagascar
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 102 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.7 m (21 Jan 17:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 93 km/h 0.7 m n.a. 0.5
GDACS Overall 102 km/h 0.7 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

93 km/h Current

Up to 10.3 million people in Tropical storm (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat. 1 or higher
Countries
Green 1 20 Jan 2019 00:00 102 7.5 million No people Mozambique, Malawi
Green 2 20 Jan 2019 06:00 93 5.6 million No people Mozambique, Malawi
Green 3 20 Jan 2019 12:00 93 10.3 million No people Mozambique, Madagascar, Malawi

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 20 Jan 2019 00:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -23.7, 38.4
GREEN
2 20 Jan 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 74 880000 people no people -22.9, 38.8 Mozambique
GREEN
3 20 Jan 2019 12:00 Tropical storm 74 3.5 million people no people -22.2, 38.9 Mozambique
GREEN
3 21 Jan 2019 00:00 Tropical storm 93 5.2 million people no people -20.5, 38.6 Mozambique
GREEN
3 21 Jan 2019 12:00 Tropical storm 93 5.7 million people no people -19, 37.9 Mozambique
GREEN
3 22 Jan 2019 00:00 Tropical storm 74 7.1 million people no people -18.1, 37.2 Mozambique
GREEN
3 22 Jan 2019 12:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -17.1, 36.7 Mozambique
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Countries

No content available ..

Provinces

No content available

Populated places

No content available

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

No content available

Ports

No content available

Dams

No content available

Nuclear plants

No content available

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.7 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.7m in Maconharumo, Mozambique. This height is estimated for 21 Jan 2019 17:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (97 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 3 of 20 Jan 2019 12:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
21 Jan 2019 17:00 Maconharumo Mozambique  0.7
21 Jan 2019 17:00 Amado Mozambique  0.7
21 Jan 2019 23:00 Mulia Mozambique  0.7
22 Jan 2019 01:00 Ocone Mozambique  0.7
21 Jan 2019 22:00 Chamba Mozambique  0.7
21 Jan 2019 22:00 Beira Mozambique  0.7
21 Jan 2019 22:00 Damiao Mozambique  0.7
21 Jan 2019 22:00 Nhangau Mozambique  0.7
22 Jan 2019 00:00 Barra Mozambique  0.6
22 Jan 2019 03:00 Quelimane do Sal Mozambique  0.6
22 Jan 2019 03:00 Inhangulue Mozambique  0.6
22 Jan 2019 03:00 Mendozo Mozambique  0.6
22 Jan 2019 03:00 Magromane Mozambique  0.6
21 Jan 2019 23:00 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.6
21 Jan 2019 23:00 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.6
21 Jan 2019 18:00 Chimuaza Mozambique  0.5
22 Jan 2019 00:00 Manica Mozambique  0.5
21 Jan 2019 22:00 Chofandicho Mozambique  0.5
21 Jan 2019 22:00 Panaca Mozambique  0.5
21 Jan 2019 21:00 Tama Mozambique  0.5
21 Jan 2019 21:00 Jonja Mozambique  0.5
21 Jan 2019 20:00 Machesse Mozambique  0.5
22 Jan 2019 00:00 Nova Sofala Mozambique  0.4
21 Jan 2019 21:00 Bingue Mozambique  0.4
21 Jan 2019 21:00 Rupia Mozambique  0.4
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Ingale Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2019 02:00 Chiloane Mozambique  0.3
20 Jan 2019 10:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 14:00 Manometimay Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 17:00 Antserananbondro Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 13:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 13:00 Kivalo Est Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 17:00 Ankevo Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 14:00 Morondava Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 14:00 Antsamaka Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2019 00:00 Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.2
20 Jan 2019 18:00 Ampanihy Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 14:00 Belo-sur-Mer Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2019 06:00 Tomodo Mozambique  0.2
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Reharaka Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2019 00:00 Jo Mozambique  0.2
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Maintirano Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Manomba Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 05:00 Morombe Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Manampea Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 12:00 Andopitaly Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Belailay Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 14:00 Ankiliabo Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 12:00 Ambozaka Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2019 23:00 Metapa Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2019 23:00 Morrua Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2019 18:00 Andemba Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2019 12:00 Antanambao Samaka Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2019 12:00 Antohgo Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 17:00 Afo Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2019 01:00 Dinguiduane Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2019 18:00 Tambohorano Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Ambatomilahy Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2019 18:00 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2019 18:00 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2019 05:00 Induna Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2019 15:00 Siane Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2019 00:00 Caulino Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2019 20:00 Carramali Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2019 20:00 Bajone Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2019 20:00 Pebane Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2019 13:00 Caliua Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2019 13:00 Raraga Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2019 13:00 Ankoakala Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2019 13:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2019 00:00 Natalia Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2019 00:00 Inhassoro Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2019 00:00 Afonso Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2019 00:00 Catine Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2019 00:00 Castigo Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2019 00:00 Mariano Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2019 00:00 Asneira Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2019 21:00 Mutiba Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2019 01:00 Guiducua Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2019 01:00 Marivate Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2019 02:00 Gafaria Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2019 02:00 Nangalete Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2019 05:00 Mahupe Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Antsafy Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2019 11:00 Ankoba Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2019 11:00 Antseranandaka Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2019 11:00 Mite Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2019 11:00 Manahy Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2019 11:00 Ankelifolo Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2019 03:00 Linchica Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2019 18:00 Chululu Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2019 00:00 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2019 12:00 Soahanina Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 04:00 Mabsil Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2019 04:00 Moravano Madagascar  0.1