Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for DESMOND-19
in Mozambique, Malawi, Madagascar
20 Jan 2019 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
  • GDACS JTWC
Impact Single TC
  • GFS
  • HWRF
  • ECMWF
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone DESMOND-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Exposed countries Mozambique, Malawi, Madagascar
    Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 102 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.7 m (21 Jan 17:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 93 km/h 0.7 m n.a. 0.5
    Overall 102 km/h 0.7 m n.a. 0.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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    Wind

      93 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 10.3 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 20 Jan 2019 00:00 102 7.5 million No people Mozambique, Malawi
        Green 2 20 Jan 2019 06:00 93 5.6 million No people Mozambique, Malawi
        Green 3 20 Jan 2019 12:00 93 10.3 million No people Mozambique, Madagascar, Malawi

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 20 Jan 2019 00:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -23.7, 38.4
          GREEN
          		 2 20 Jan 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people 880000 people -22.9, 38.8 Mozambique
          GREEN
          		 3 20 Jan 2019 12:00 Tropical storm 74 no people 3.6 million people -22.2, 38.9 Mozambique
          GREEN
          		 3 21 Jan 2019 00:00 Tropical storm 93 no people 5.2 million people -20.5, 38.6 Mozambique
          GREEN
          		 3 21 Jan 2019 12:00 Tropical storm 93 no people 5.8 million people -19, 37.9 Mozambique
          GREEN
          		 3 22 Jan 2019 00:00 Tropical storm 74 no people 7.2 million people -18.1, 37.2 Mozambique
          GREEN
          		 3 22 Jan 2019 12:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -17.1, 36.7 Mozambique
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country
          Mozambique
          Madagascar
          Malawi

          Provinces

          Region Province Country
          Inhambane Mozambique
          Sofala Mozambique
          Toliara Madagascar
          Zambezia Mozambique
          Manica Mozambique
          Nampula Mozambique
          Tete Mozambique
          Southern Malawi
          Niassa Mozambique

          Populated places

          Name Region Province Country City class Population
          Maxixe Mozambique City 120000 people
          Morombe Toliara Madagascar City -
          Ambohibe Toliara Madagascar City -
          Beira Sofala Mozambique Major city 520000 people
          Tulear Toliara Madagascar Major city -
          Quelimane Zambezia Mozambique City 190000 people

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          Vilanculos VNX 14 Civ. Paved Yes 4800
          Inhambane INH 9 Civ. Paved Yes 4900
          Vila Franca Do Save 30 0
          Morombe MXM 5 Civ. Paved No 4200
          Chinde INE unknown 0
          Beira BEW 10 Civ. Paved Yes 7800
          Luabo LBM unknown 0
          Tanandava TDV 27 Civ. Unpaved No 4500
          Toliara TLE 8 Civ. Paved No 6500
          Quelimane UEL 11 Civ. Paved Yes 5900
          Pebane PEB unknown 0
          Bajone BJN unknown 0
          Inhaminga IMG unknown 0
          Moma MMW unknown 0
          Mutarara 48 0
          Nsanje 61 Civ. Unpaved No 3200
          Alto Molocue AME unknown 0
          Gurue VJQ unknown 0

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Bazaruto Island Mozambique
          Vilanculas Mozambique
          Inhambane MZINH Mozambique
          Bartolomeo Diaz Mozambique
          Nova Mambone Mozambique
          Morombe MGMXM Madagascar
          Chinde MZINE Mozambique
          Manombo MGMOB Madagascar
          Vila Do Chinde Mozambique
          Beira MZBEW Mozambique
          Toliara MGTLE Madagascar
          Antongo Madagascar
          Porto de Quelimane MZUEL Mozambique
          Porto Belo MZPBE Mozambique
          Pebane MZPEB Mozambique
          Rio Moebase Mozambique
          Moma MZMMW Mozambique

          Dams

          Reservoir Dam Name River Year
          Bue Maria Pungoe n/a
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          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

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          StormSurge

          0.7 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.7m in Maconharumo, Mozambique. This height is estimated for 21 Jan 2019 17:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (97 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 3 of 20 Jan 2019 12:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          21 Jan 2019 17:00 Maconharumo Mozambique  0.7
          21 Jan 2019 17:00 Amado Mozambique  0.7
          21 Jan 2019 23:00 Mulia Mozambique  0.7
          22 Jan 2019 01:00 Ocone Mozambique  0.7
          21 Jan 2019 22:00 Chamba Mozambique  0.7
          21 Jan 2019 22:00 Beira Mozambique  0.7
          21 Jan 2019 22:00 Damiao Mozambique  0.7
          21 Jan 2019 22:00 Nhangau Mozambique  0.7
          22 Jan 2019 00:00 Barra Mozambique  0.6
          22 Jan 2019 03:00 Quelimane do Sal Mozambique  0.6
          22 Jan 2019 03:00 Inhangulue Mozambique  0.6
          22 Jan 2019 03:00 Mendozo Mozambique  0.6
          22 Jan 2019 03:00 Magromane Mozambique  0.6
          21 Jan 2019 23:00 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.6
          21 Jan 2019 23:00 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.6
          21 Jan 2019 18:00 Chimuaza Mozambique  0.5
          22 Jan 2019 00:00 Manica Mozambique  0.5
          21 Jan 2019 22:00 Chofandicho Mozambique  0.5
          21 Jan 2019 22:00 Panaca Mozambique  0.5
          21 Jan 2019 21:00 Tama Mozambique  0.5
          21 Jan 2019 21:00 Jonja Mozambique  0.5
          21 Jan 2019 20:00 Machesse Mozambique  0.5
          22 Jan 2019 00:00 Nova Sofala Mozambique  0.4
          21 Jan 2019 21:00 Bingue Mozambique  0.4
          21 Jan 2019 21:00 Rupia Mozambique  0.4
          20 Jan 2019 19:00 Ingale Mozambique  0.3
          22 Jan 2019 02:00 Chiloane Mozambique  0.3
          20 Jan 2019 10:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 14:00 Manometimay Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 17:00 Antserananbondro Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 13:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 13:00 Kivalo Est Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 17:00 Ankevo Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 14:00 Morondava Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 14:00 Antsamaka Madagascar  0.2
          22 Jan 2019 00:00 Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 18:00 Ampanihy Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 14:00 Belo-sur-Mer Madagascar  0.2
          22 Jan 2019 06:00 Tomodo Mozambique  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 19:00 Reharaka Madagascar  0.2
          22 Jan 2019 00:00 Jo Mozambique  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 19:00 Maintirano Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 19:00 Manomba Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 05:00 Morombe Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 19:00 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 19:00 Manampea Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 12:00 Andopitaly Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 19:00 Belailay Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 14:00 Ankiliabo Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2019 12:00 Ambozaka Madagascar  0.2
          21 Jan 2019 23:00 Metapa Mozambique  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 23:00 Morrua Mozambique  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 18:00 Andemba Madagascar  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 12:00 Antanambao Samaka Madagascar  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 12:00 Antohgo Madagascar  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 17:00 Afo Mozambique  0.1
          22 Jan 2019 01:00 Dinguiduane Mozambique  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 19:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 18:00 Tambohorano Madagascar  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 19:00 Ambatomilahy Madagascar  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 18:00 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 18:00 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 05:00 Induna Mozambique  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 15:00 Siane Mozambique  0.1
          22 Jan 2019 00:00 Caulino Mozambique  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 20:00 Carramali Mozambique  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 20:00 Bajone Mozambique  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 20:00 Pebane Mozambique  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 13:00 Caliua Mozambique  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 13:00 Raraga Mozambique  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 13:00 Ankoakala Madagascar  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 13:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.1
          22 Jan 2019 00:00 Natalia Mozambique  0.1
          22 Jan 2019 00:00 Inhassoro Mozambique  0.1
          22 Jan 2019 00:00 Afonso Mozambique  0.1
          22 Jan 2019 00:00 Catine Mozambique  0.1
          22 Jan 2019 00:00 Castigo Mozambique  0.1
          22 Jan 2019 00:00 Mariano Mozambique  0.1
          22 Jan 2019 00:00 Asneira Mozambique  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 21:00 Mutiba Mozambique  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 01:00 Guiducua Mozambique  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 01:00 Marivate Mozambique  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 02:00 Gafaria Mozambique  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 02:00 Nangalete Mozambique  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 05:00 Mahupe Mozambique  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 19:00 Antsafy Madagascar  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 11:00 Ankoba Madagascar  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 11:00 Antseranandaka Madagascar  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 11:00 Mite Madagascar  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 11:00 Manahy Madagascar  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 11:00 Ankelifolo Madagascar  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 03:00 Linchica Mozambique  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 18:00 Chululu Mozambique  0.1
          22 Jan 2019 00:00 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 12:00 Soahanina Madagascar  0.1
          21 Jan 2019 04:00 Mabsil Mozambique  0.1
          20 Jan 2019 04:00 Moravano Madagascar  0.1