Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for IDAI-19
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
GDACS
Impact Single TC
Impact all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IDAI-19 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS
Exposed countries Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
Exposed population 1.9 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 194 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.8 m (14 Mar 20:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 120 km/h 1.8 m n.a. 2.5
GDACS Overall 194 km/h 1.8 m n.a. 2.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

120 km/h Current Max.

Up to 1.9 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm or higher
Population in
Cat 1. or higher
Countries
Orange 1 09 Mar 2019 06:00 213 6.6 million 870 thousand Mozambique
Orange 2 09 Mar 2019 12:00 213 5.6 million 550 thousand Mozambique
Orange 3 09 Mar 2019 18:00 204 2.9 million 250 thousand Mozambique
Orange 4 10 Mar 2019 00:00 204 4.3 million 340 thousand Mozambique
Orange 5 10 Mar 2019 06:00 213 4.1 million 1.3 million Mozambique
Orange 6 10 Mar 2019 12:00 213 4.7 million 1.1 million Mozambique
Orange 7 10 Mar 2019 18:00 222 5.2 million 440 thousand Mozambique
Orange 8 11 Mar 2019 00:00 213 3 million 660 thousand Mozambique
Red 9 11 Mar 2019 06:00 213 8.1 million 580 thousand Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mozambique
Red 10 11 Mar 2019 12:00 194 5.3 million 1.1 million Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mozambique
Red 11 11 Mar 2019 18:00 194 5.9 million 960 thousand Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mozambique, Zimbabwe
Red 12 12 Mar 2019 00:00 213 6.9 million 1.9 million Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mozambique, Zimbabwe
Red 13 12 Mar 2019 06:00 185 6 million 1.3 million Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mozambique
Red 14 12 Mar 2019 12:00 194 5.8 million 1.1 million Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mozambique, Zimbabwe
Red 15 12 Mar 2019 18:00 222 6 million 2 million Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mozambique, Zimbabwe
Red 16 13 Mar 2019 00:00 185 5.9 million 2 million Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mozambique, Zimbabwe
Red 17 13 Mar 2019 06:00 185 5.1 million 1.5 million Mozambique, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
Red 18 13 Mar 2019 12:00 120 6.3 million 1.9 million Mozambique, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Zimbabwe

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 09 Mar 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 65 100000 people no people -17, 40.2 Mozambique
GREEN
2 09 Mar 2019 12:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -17, 41.3 Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
GREEN
3 09 Mar 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 65 1200 people no people -16.9, 42 Madagascar
GREEN
4 10 Mar 2019 00:00 Tropical storm 74 100000 people no people -17.2, 42.4 Madagascar
GREEN
5 10 Mar 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 93 69000 people no people -17.4, 42.6 Madagascar
GREEN
6 10 Mar 2019 12:00 Tropical storm 102 210000 people no people -17.2, 43 Madagascar
GREEN
7 10 Mar 2019 18:00 Category 1 130 310000 people no people -17.2, 43.2 Madagascar
GREEN
8 11 Mar 2019 00:00 Category 2 167 200000 people no people -17.3, 43.2 Madagascar
GREEN
9 11 Mar 2019 06:00 Category 3 185 170000 people no people -17.3, 43 Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
GREEN
10 11 Mar 2019 12:00 Category 3 194 100000 people no people -17.6, 42.6 Madagascar
GREEN
11 11 Mar 2019 18:00 Category 3 194 110000 people no people -17.7, 42.5 Madagascar
GREEN
12 12 Mar 2019 00:00 Category 3 185 48000 people no people -18, 42.2 Madagascar
GREEN
13 12 Mar 2019 06:00 Category 2 167 no people no people -18.3, 41.9 Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
GREEN
14 12 Mar 2019 12:00 Category 2 167 no people no people -18.7, 41.3
GREEN
15 12 Mar 2019 18:00 Category 3 185 no people no people -19.1, 40.7
GREEN
16 13 Mar 2019 00:00 Category 2 176 no people no people -19.3, 40.2
GREEN
17 13 Mar 2019 06:00 Category 2 176 no people no people -19.4, 39.5
GREEN
18 13 Mar 2019 12:00 Category 2 167 200000 people no people -19.5, 39 Mozambique
GREEN
18 14 Mar 2019 00:00 Category 2 167 2.2 million people no people -19.6, 37.7 Mozambique
ORANGE
18 14 Mar 2019 12:00 Category 2 157 4.2 million people 960000 people -19.6, 36.2 Mozambique
RED
18 15 Mar 2019 00:00 Category 1 120 4.5 million people 1.8 million people -19.4, 34.6 Mozambique
GREEN
18 15 Mar 2019 12:00 Tropical storm 74 3.1 million people no people -18.9, 33.2 Mozambique
GREEN
18 16 Mar 2019 12:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people -18, 32.4 Mozambique
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
Download:



Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Mozambique
Juan De Nova I.
Zimbabwe

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Sofala Mozambique 1.4 million people
Juan De Nova I. Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands -
Manica Mozambique 870000 people
Manicaland Zimbabwe 1.6 million people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population
Beira Sofala Mozambique Major city 520000 people
Chimoio Manica Mozambique City 250000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
Beira BEW 10 Civ. Paved Yes 7800
Chimoio VPY 686 Civ. Paved No 7800

Ports

Name LOCODE Country
Beira MZBEW Mozambique

Dams

Reservoir Dam Name River Year
Bue Maria Pungoe -99
Revue Chicamba Real Revue 1959

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

1.8 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  2.3m in Chofandicho, Mozambique. This height is estimated for 14 Mar 2019 21:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (147 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 24 of 15 Mar 2019 00:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

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