Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for LORENA-19 in Mexico from 17 Sep 2019 15:00 UTC to 20 Sep 2019 18:00 UTC

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone LORENA-19 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Mexico
Exposed population	370 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	157 km/h
Maximum storm surge	n.a.
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	139 km/h	n.a.	n.a.	0.5
Overall	157 km/h	0.0 m	n.a.	1.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

139 km/h Current Max.

Up to 210000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	17 Sep 2019 12:00	102	290 thousand	No people	Mexico
2	17 Sep 2019 18:00	102	1.2 million	No people	Mexico
3	18 Sep 2019 00:00	111	710 thousand	No people	Mexico
4	18 Sep 2019 06:00	120	740 thousand	No people	Mexico
5	18 Sep 2019 12:00	130	1.9 million	70 thousand	Mexico
6	18 Sep 2019 18:00	157	830 thousand	No people	Mexico
7	19 Sep 2019 00:00	148	1.6 million	20 thousand	Mexico
8	19 Sep 2019 06:00	120	2.5 million	120 thousand	Mexico
9	19 Sep 2019 12:00	148	2.5 million	120 thousand	Mexico
10	19 Sep 2019 18:00	130	2.5 million	240 thousand	Mexico
11	20 Sep 2019 00:00	120	2.5 million	340 thousand	Mexico
12	20 Sep 2019 06:00	130	2.1 million	120 thousand	Mexico
13	20 Sep 2019 12:00	130	2.1 million	220 thousand	Mexico
14	20 Sep 2019 18:00	139	2.5 million	210 thousand	Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	17 Sep 2019 12:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	13.3, -99.6
2	17 Sep 2019 18:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	14.1, -100.8
3	18 Sep 2019 00:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	14.7, -101.7
4	18 Sep 2019 06:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	15.7, -102.6
5	18 Sep 2019 12:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	890000 people	17, -103.2	Mexico
6	18 Sep 2019 18:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	590000 people	17.6, -104	Mexico
7	19 Sep 2019 00:00	Category 1	120	17000 people	1.3 million people	18.3, -104.4	Mexico
8	19 Sep 2019 06:00	Category 1	120	110000 people	1.6 million people	19.3, -104.8	Mexico
9	19 Sep 2019 12:00	Tropical storm	111	13000 people	760000 people	20.2, -105.5	Mexico
10	19 Sep 2019 18:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	6400 people	21.4, -106.7	Mexico
11	20 Sep 2019 00:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	6300 people	22, -107.3	Mexico
12	20 Sep 2019 06:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	280000 people	22.2, -108.2	Mexico
13	20 Sep 2019 12:00	Category 1	120	98000 people	310000 people	22.6, -108.9	Mexico
14	20 Sep 2019 18:00	Category 1	139	78000 people	570000 people	23, -109.3	Mexico
14	21 Sep 2019 06:00	Category 1	120	13000 people	410000 people	23.9, -110.5	Mexico
14	21 Sep 2019 18:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	120000 people	25.5, -111.5	Mexico
14	22 Sep 2019 06:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	39000 people	27, -112.3	Mexico
14	22 Sep 2019 18:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	28.5, -113.5	Mexico
14	23 Sep 2019 18:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	30, -115	Mexico

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Mexico

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Baja California Sur	Mexico
Jalisco	Mexico
Colima	Mexico

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Los Cabos International	SJD	109	Civ.	Paved	Yes	9800
La Gloria		34				0
Playa de Oro International	ZLO	8	Civ.	Paved	Yes	7200

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
San Juan de la Costa	MXSJC	Mexico
Ipala		Mexico
El Tabaco		Mexico
Chamela		Mexico

Dams

Reservoir	Dam Name	River	Year
	Cajon de Peda	Tomatlan	1976

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.