Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for LORENA-19
in Mexico
17 Sep 2019 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
  • GDACS JTWC
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone LORENA-19 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Exposed countries Mexico
    Exposed population 370 thousand in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 157 km/h
    Maximum storm surge n.a.
    Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 102 km/h n.a. n.a. 0.5
    Overall 157 km/h 0.0 m n.a. 0.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

    TOP

    Wind

      102 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 1.2 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 17 Sep 2019 12:00 102 290 thousand No people Mexico
        Green 2 17 Sep 2019 18:00 102 1.2 million No people Mexico

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 17 Sep 2019 12:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 13.3, -99.6
          GREEN
          		 2 17 Sep 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 14.1, -100.8
          GREEN
          		 2 18 Sep 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 93 no people 12000 people 15.7, -102.3 Mexico
          GREEN
          		 2 18 Sep 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 102 no people 860000 people 17.3, -103.3 Mexico
          GREEN
          		 2 19 Sep 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 102 no people 1 million people 18.5, -104.1 Mexico
          GREEN
          		 2 19 Sep 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 102 no people 490000 people 19.2, -104.8 Mexico
          GREEN
          		 2 20 Sep 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 74 no people <1000 people 20.5, -106.5 Mexico
          GREEN
          		 2 21 Sep 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people 120000 people 22, -109.5 Mexico
          GREEN
          		 2 22 Sep 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 23.5, -112 Mexico
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country
          Mexico

          Provinces

          Region Province Country
          Michoacan Mexico
          Jalisco Mexico
          Colima Mexico
          Nayarit Mexico
          Baja California Sur Mexico

          Populated places

          Name Region Province Country City class Population
          Coalcomán Michoacán de Ocampo Mexico City 10000 people
          Tecomán Colima Mexico City 75000 people
          Armería Colima Mexico City 16000 people
          Colima Colima Mexico Major city 130000 people
          Manzanillo Colima Mexico City 110000 people
          Autlán Jalisco Mexico City 40000 people

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          Coahuayana 61 0
          Colima CLQ 723 Civ. Paved Yes 7500
          Playa de Oro International ZLO 8 Civ. Paved Yes 7200
          Autlan 884 0
          La Gloria 34 0
          Cabo San Lucas 139 0

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Manzanillo MXZLO Mexico
          Chamela Mexico
          El Tabaco Mexico
          Ipala Mexico
          Puerto Vallarta MXPVR Mexico
          San Lucas Mexico

          Dams

          Reservoir Dam Name River Year
          Trojes Coahuayana 1994
          Cajon de Peda Tomatlan 1976
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          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

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          StormSurge

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.