Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for HAGIBIS-19
in Japan, Northern Mariana Islands, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Guam

Impact

Tropical Cyclone HAGIBIS-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (JTWC)
Exposed countries Japan, Northern Mariana Islands, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Guam
Exposed population 54.8 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 278 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.1 m (11 Oct 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Northern Mariana Is.)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 204 km/h 0.1 m n.a. 1.5
GDACS Overall 278 km/h 0.1 m n.a. 1.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

204 km/h Current

Up to 8.9 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat. 1 or higher
Countries
Green 1 05 Oct 2019 06:00 241 50 thousand No people Northern Mariana Islands
Green 2 05 Oct 2019 12:00 241 200 thousand No people Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Green 3 05 Oct 2019 18:00 241 50 thousand No people Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Green 4 06 Oct 2019 00:00 241 140 thousand No people Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Orange 5 06 Oct 2019 06:00 148 220 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Orange 6 06 Oct 2019 12:00 148 1.6 million 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Green 7 06 Oct 2019 18:00 250 800 thousand No people Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Japan
Green 8 07 Oct 2019 00:00 259 6 million No people Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Japan
Green 9 07 Oct 2019 06:00 278 63.7 million 20 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Japan
Orange 10 07 Oct 2019 12:00 204 101 million 8.9 million Japan

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 05 Oct 2019 06:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 15.3, 161.1
GREEN
2 05 Oct 2019 12:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 15.1, 159.2
GREEN
3 05 Oct 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 15.3, 157.8
GREEN
4 06 Oct 2019 00:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 14.9, 155.8
GREEN
5 06 Oct 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 14.2, 154.1
GREEN
6 06 Oct 2019 12:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 14.5, 152.4
GREEN
7 06 Oct 2019 18:00 Category 1 120 53000 people no people 14.9, 151.1 Northern Mariana Islands
GREEN
8 07 Oct 2019 00:00 Category 3 185 210000 people no people 15.1, 149.5 Guam
GREEN
9 07 Oct 2019 06:00 Category 4 241 210000 people <1000 people 15.5, 148.2 Northern Mariana Islands
GREEN
10 07 Oct 2019 12:00 Category 5 259 210000 people no people 16.1, 146.7 Guam
GREEN
10 08 Oct 2019 00:00 Category 5 278 210000 people no people 17.2, 144 Guam
GREEN
10 08 Oct 2019 12:00 Category 5 269 no people no people 18.3, 141.8
GREEN
10 09 Oct 2019 00:00 Category 5 259 <1000 people no people 19.5, 140.2
GREEN
10 09 Oct 2019 12:00 Category 4 250 <1000 people no people 20.9, 139
GREEN
10 10 Oct 2019 12:00 Category 4 231 48000 people no people 24.1, 136.8 Japan
ORANGE
10 11 Oct 2019 12:00 Category 3 204 100.8 million people 8.9 million people 28.1, 135 Japan
GREEN
10 12 Oct 2019 12:00 Category 2 167 no people no people 33.7, 136.7 Japan
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Countries

Country
Japan

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Chubu Japan 5.1 million people
Kinki Japan 22.2 million people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population
Kushimoto Wakayama Japan City -
Shingu Wakayama Japan City 31000 people
Arai Shizuoka Japan City -
Tanabe Wakayama Japan City 69000 people
Toyohashi Aichi Japan City 370000 people
Ise Mie Japan City 96000 people
Toyokawa Aichi Japan City 110000 people
Toyohama Aichi Japan City -
Nishio Aichi Japan City 100000 people
Koyasan Wakayama Japan City -
Okazaki Aichi Japan City 340000 people
Handa Aichi Japan City 110000 people
Tsu Mie Japan Major city 160000 people
Tokoname Aichi Japan City 49000 people
Kariya Aichi Japan City 130000 people
Kainan Wakayama Japan City 43000 people
Sakurai Nara Japan City 62000 people
Nagano Nara Japan City -
Suzuka Mie Japan City 180000 people
Kashihara Nara Japan City 120000 people
Yokkaichi Mie Japan City 290000 people
Tondabayashi Osaka Japan City 130000 people
Ueno Mie Japan City 60000 people
Kokubu Nara Japan City -
Izumi Osaka Japan City 180000 people
Nara Nara Japan Major city 360000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
Kushimoto-Katsuura KUJ unknown 0
Nanki Shirahama SHM 105 Civ. Paved Yes 5900
6 0
Shinodayama 15 0
Yao 12 Civ. Paved Yes 4800

Ports

Name LOCODE Country
Farallon de Medinilla Northern Mariana Islands
Guguan Island Northern Mariana Islands
Kushimoto Japan
Uraga JPURG Japan
Shingu JPSHN Japan
Hamamatsu JPHMM Japan
Owase JPOWA Japan
Tanabe JPTAE Japan
Toba JPTOB Japan
Toyohashi JPTHS Japan
Ise JPISE Japan
Atsumi JPATM Japan
Gamagori JPGAM Japan
Matsuzaka Japan
Kinuura JPKNU Japan
Tsu JPTSU Japan
Kainan JPKAI Japan
Yokkaichi JPYKK Japan

Dams

Reservoir Dam Name River Year
Nanairochosuichi Nanairo Kitayamagawa 1965
Kamiji Kamiji Kamijigawa 1972
Ikeharako Ikehara Kitayamagawa 1964
Sakamotochosuichi Sakamoto Higashinogawa 1962
Hattachiike Hattachiike Toyokawa 1966
Kazeyachosuichi Kazeya Totsugawa 1960
Osugiko Miyagawa Miyagawa 1956
Okuiseko Misetani Miyagawa 1966
Gokatsuraike Gokatsuraike 1678
Asahichosuichi Asahi Asahigawa 1978
Komanbachoseichi Komanba Toyokawa 1968
Osakochosuichi Osako Kinokawa 1973
Nameriko Nameriko Nakamuragawa 1973
Futagawa Futagawa Aritagawa 1966
Tsuburoko Tsuburo Tsuburogawa 1962
Kimigano Kimigano Hatsutematagawa 1971
Maeyamaike Maeyama Maeyamakawa 1990
Katada Katada Naganogawa 1929
1998
Shorenjiko Shorenji Shorenjigawa 1970
Murooko Murou Udagawa 1973
Souriike Souri Shinanogawa 1965
Shakujoko Ano Anogawa 1990
Takihata Takihata Ishikawa 1981
Kasatochoseichi Kasatochoseichi Shiyamagawa 1983
Horigo Horigo Horigogawa 1969
Midoroike Midoro Hinogkawa 1970
Tashiroko Tashiroike Takikawa 1895
Komyoike Komyoike Makiogawa 1936
Sayamaike Sayamaike Nishiyokegawa 2001
Tsukigaseko Takayama Nabarigawa 1968
Oharachosuichi Ohara Oharagawa 1960
Onoike Onoike Makiogawa 1940
Yasugawa Yasugawa 2009
Ozuchi Ozuchi Yasugawa 1987

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.1m in Kisaki, Japan. This height is estimated for 11 Oct 2019 12:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (77 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 10 of 07 Oct 2019 12:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Kisaki Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Tachibandori Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Oryuzako Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Haruguchi Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Kaminaka Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Sakai Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Takesaki Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Sumiyoshi Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Hirayama Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Hirota Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Hamada Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Osaki Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Aburatsu Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Hayama Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Takabo Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Miyazaki Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Niinauri Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Udo Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Meitsu Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Karijuku Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Takanabe Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Uwae Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Araki Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Uekatsu Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Akatsure Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Urabaru Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Aden Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Somachi Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Shitooke Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Shimonaka Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Mitariyama Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Miza Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Noma Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Fukagawa Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Hamatsuwaki Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Takenokawa Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Makigawa Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Takeyano Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Odaira Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Onasu Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Jusamban Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Nijuban Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Nakayama Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Jurokuban Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Kurazami Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Nishinoomote Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Masuda Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Kerisaki Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Komakino Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Osaki Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Yakenota Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Yokoyama Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Ikenohira Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Kunigami Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Kunikami Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Anjo Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Tachiyama Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Ono Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Yanagihara Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Azako Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Guniwa Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Anno Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Minato Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Iseki Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Shoiiura Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Shimama Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Ushino Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Shimo-Nishime Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Nishino Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Miyanoura Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Nakamura Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Shimo-Tashima Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Ambo Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Funayuki Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Higashi Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Igatan Japan  0.1
11 Oct 2019 12:00 Tomai Japan  0.1