Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for HAGIBIS-19
in Japan, Northern Mariana Islands, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Guam

Impact

Tropical Cyclone HAGIBIS-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (JTWC)
Exposed countries Japan, Northern Mariana Islands, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Guam
Exposed population 54.8 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 278 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.1 m (07 Oct 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Northern Mariana Is.)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 241 km/h 0.1 m n.a. 0.5
GDACS Overall 278 km/h 0.1 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

241 km/h Current

Up to no people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat. 1 or higher
Countries
Green 1 05 Oct 2019 06:00 241 50 thousand No people Northern Mariana Islands
Green 2 05 Oct 2019 12:00 241 200 thousand No people Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Green 3 05 Oct 2019 18:00 241 50 thousand No people Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Green 4 06 Oct 2019 00:00 241 140 thousand No people Northern Mariana Islands, Guam

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 05 Oct 2019 06:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 15.3, 161.1
GREEN
2 05 Oct 2019 12:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 15.1, 159.2
GREEN
3 05 Oct 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 15.3, 157.8
GREEN
4 06 Oct 2019 00:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 14.9, 155.8
GREEN
4 06 Oct 2019 12:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 15.3, 152.5
GREEN
4 07 Oct 2019 00:00 Category 1 130 68000 people no people 15.7, 149.2 Guam
GREEN
4 07 Oct 2019 12:00 Category 1 148 140000 people no people 16.3, 146.1 Guam
GREEN
4 08 Oct 2019 00:00 Category 2 176 50000 people no people 17, 143.4 Northern Mariana Islands
GREEN
4 09 Oct 2019 00:00 Category 4 222 no people no people 18.9, 139.2
GREEN
4 10 Oct 2019 00:00 Category 4 241 2000 people no people 21.1, 135.9
GREEN
4 11 Oct 2019 00:00 Category 4 241 no people no people 23.5, 133.3
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Ports

Name LOCODE Country Distance
Farallon de Medinilla Northern Mariana Islands 1050 km

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.1m in Garapan, Northern Mariana Islands. This height is estimated for 07 Oct 2019 12:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (12 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 4 of 06 Oct 2019 00:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 6 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
07 Oct 2019 12:00 Garapan Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
07 Oct 2019 12:00 Mutcho Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
07 Oct 2019 12:00 Tanapag Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
07 Oct 2019 12:00 San Roque Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
07 Oct 2019 13:00 Afetna Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
07 Oct 2019 13:00 Susupi Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
07 Oct 2019 13:00 Laolao Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
07 Oct 2019 13:00 Chalan Kanoa Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
07 Oct 2019 13:00 Aslito Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
07 Oct 2019 13:00 Saipan Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
07 Oct 2019 13:00 Kagman Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
07 Oct 2019 13:00 Sunharon Roads Northern Mariana Islands  0.1