Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for HAGIBIS-19
in Japan, Northern Mariana Islands, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Guam
06 Oct 2019 12 UTC
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  • GDACS JTWC
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone HAGIBIS-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Exposed countries Japan, Northern Mariana Islands, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Guam
    Exposed population 54.8 million in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 278 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (07 Oct 14:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability Medium (Northern Mariana Is.)

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 148 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 1.5
    Overall 278 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 1.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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    Wind

      148 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 50000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 05 Oct 2019 06:00 241 50 thousand No people Northern Mariana Islands
        Green 2 05 Oct 2019 12:00 241 200 thousand No people Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
        Green 3 05 Oct 2019 18:00 241 50 thousand No people Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
        Green 4 06 Oct 2019 00:00 241 140 thousand No people Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
        Orange 5 06 Oct 2019 06:00 148 220 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
        Orange 6 06 Oct 2019 12:00 148 1.6 million 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 05 Oct 2019 06:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 15.3, 161.1
          GREEN
          		 2 05 Oct 2019 12:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 15.1, 159.2
          GREEN
          		 3 05 Oct 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 15.3, 157.8
          GREEN
          		 4 06 Oct 2019 00:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 14.9, 155.8
          GREEN
          		 5 06 Oct 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 14.2, 154.1
          GREEN
          		 6 06 Oct 2019 12:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 14.5, 152.4
          GREEN
          		 6 07 Oct 2019 00:00 Category 1 120 220000 people <1000 people 14.9, 149.5 Northern Mariana Islands
          ORANGE
          		 6 07 Oct 2019 12:00 Category 1 148 220000 people 48000 people 15.6, 146.4 Northern Mariana Islands
          GREEN
          		 6 08 Oct 2019 00:00 Category 2 176 220000 people no people 16.7, 143.6 Guam
          GREEN
          		 6 08 Oct 2019 12:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 17.8, 141.1
          GREEN
          		 6 09 Oct 2019 12:00 Category 4 231 no people no people 20.1, 138
          GREEN
          		 6 10 Oct 2019 12:00 Category 4 241 1.4 million people 2100 people 22.8, 135.4 Japan
          GREEN
          		 6 11 Oct 2019 12:00 Category 4 241 no people no people 26.3, 132.8
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country
          Northern Mariana Is.

          Provinces

          Region Province Country Population
          Northern Mariana Is. Northern Mariana Islands 61000 people

          Populated places

          Name Region Province Country City class Population
          Saipan Northern Mariana Islands Capital 62000 people

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          Nikko 18 0
          Saipan International SPN 66 Civ. Paved Yes 8700
          Commonwealth Health Center 5 0
          Kitadaito KTD 24 Civ. Paved Yes 4900
          Minami Daito MMD 4 Civ. Paved Yes 4900

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Farallon de Medinilla Northern Mariana Islands
          Saipan MPSPN Northern Mariana Islands
          Kita Japan
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          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

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          StormSurge

          0.2 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Garapan, Northern Mariana Islands. This height is estimated for 07 Oct 2019 14:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (12 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 6 of 06 Oct 2019 12:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 6 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          07 Oct 2019 14:00 Garapan Northern Mariana Islands  0.2
          07 Oct 2019 14:00 Mutcho Northern Mariana Islands  0.2
          07 Oct 2019 14:00 Tanapag Northern Mariana Islands  0.2
          07 Oct 2019 14:00 San Roque Northern Mariana Islands  0.2
          07 Oct 2019 14:00 Susupi Northern Mariana Islands  0.2
          07 Oct 2019 14:00 Laolao Northern Mariana Islands  0.2
          07 Oct 2019 14:00 Chalan Kanoa Northern Mariana Islands  0.2
          07 Oct 2019 14:00 Aslito Northern Mariana Islands  0.2
          07 Oct 2019 14:00 Saipan Northern Mariana Islands  0.2
          07 Oct 2019 14:00 Kagman Northern Mariana Islands  0.2
          07 Oct 2019 14:00 Afetna Northern Mariana Islands  0.2
          07 Oct 2019 15:00 Sunharon Roads Northern Mariana Islands  0.1