Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for HAGIBIS-19
in Japan, Northern Mariana Islands, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Guam
06 Oct 2019 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS
Impact Single TC
HWRF
ECMWF
GFS
Impact all weather systems in the area
.

Impact

Tropical Cyclone HAGIBIS-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (JTWC)
Exposed countries Japan, Northern Mariana Islands, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Guam
Exposed population 54.8 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 278 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (07 Oct 14:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Northern Mariana Is.)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 148 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 1.5
GDACS Overall 278 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 1.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

148 km/h Current

Up to 49000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm 		Population in
Cat. 1 or higher		 Countries
Green 1 05 Oct 2019 06:00 241 50 thousand No people Northern Mariana Islands
Green 2 05 Oct 2019 12:00 241 200 thousand No people Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Green 3 05 Oct 2019 18:00 241 50 thousand No people Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Green 4 06 Oct 2019 00:00 241 140 thousand No people Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Orange 5 06 Oct 2019 06:00 148 220 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Orange 6 06 Oct 2019 12:00 148 1.6 million 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands

Bulletin Timeline

Alert N° Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)		 Population in
Tropical Storm		 Population in
Cat.1 or higher		 Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
 1 05 Oct 2019 06:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 15.3, 161.1
GREEN
 2 05 Oct 2019 12:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 15.1, 159.2
GREEN
 3 05 Oct 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 15.3, 157.8
GREEN
 4 06 Oct 2019 00:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 14.9, 155.8
GREEN
 5 06 Oct 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 14.2, 154.1
GREEN
 6 06 Oct 2019 12:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 14.5, 152.4
GREEN
 6 07 Oct 2019 00:00 Category 1 120 210000 people <1000 people 14.9, 149.5 Northern Mariana Islands
ORANGE
 6 07 Oct 2019 12:00 Category 1 148 210000 people 47000 people 15.6, 146.4 Northern Mariana Islands
GREEN
 6 08 Oct 2019 00:00 Category 2 176 210000 people no people 16.7, 143.6 Guam
GREEN
 6 08 Oct 2019 12:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 17.8, 141.1
GREEN
 6 09 Oct 2019 12:00 Category 4 231 no people no people 20.1, 138
GREEN
 6 10 Oct 2019 12:00 Category 4 241 1.4 million people 2000 people 22.8, 135.4 Japan
GREEN
 6 11 Oct 2019 12:00 Category 4 241 no people no people 26.3, 132.8
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Countries

Country
Northern Mariana Is.

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Northern Mariana Is. Northern Mariana Islands 60000 people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population Distance
Saipan Northern Mariana Islands Capital 62000 people 719 km

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft) Distance
Nikko 18 0 717 km
Saipan International SPN 66 Civ. Paved Yes 8700 721 km
Commonwealth Health Center 5 0 723 km
Kitadaito KTD 24 Civ. Paved Yes 4900 2535 km
Minami Daito MMD 4 Civ. Paved Yes 4900 2537 km

Ports

Name LOCODE Country Distance
Farallon de Medinilla Northern Mariana Islands 699 km
Saipan MPSPN Northern Mariana Islands 723 km
Kita Japan 2537 km
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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Garapan, Northern Mariana Islands. This height is estimated for 07 Oct 2019 14:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (12 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 6 of 06 Oct 2019 12:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 6 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
07 Oct 2019 14:00 Garapan Northern Mariana Islands  0.2
07 Oct 2019 14:00 Mutcho Northern Mariana Islands  0.2
07 Oct 2019 14:00 Tanapag Northern Mariana Islands  0.2
07 Oct 2019 14:00 San Roque Northern Mariana Islands  0.2
07 Oct 2019 14:00 Susupi Northern Mariana Islands  0.2
07 Oct 2019 14:00 Laolao Northern Mariana Islands  0.2
07 Oct 2019 14:00 Chalan Kanoa Northern Mariana Islands  0.2
07 Oct 2019 14:00 Aslito Northern Mariana Islands  0.2
07 Oct 2019 14:00 Saipan Northern Mariana Islands  0.2
07 Oct 2019 14:00 Kagman Northern Mariana Islands  0.2
07 Oct 2019 14:00 Afetna Northern Mariana Islands  0.2
07 Oct 2019 15:00 Sunharon Roads Northern Mariana Islands  0.1