Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for HAGIBIS-19
in Japan, Northern Mariana Islands, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Guam

Impact

Tropical Cyclone HAGIBIS-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (JTWC)
Exposed countries Japan, Northern Mariana Islands, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Guam
Exposed population 54.8 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 278 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.1 m (07 Oct 16:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Northern Mariana Is.)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 278 km/h 0.1 m n.a. 0.5
GDACS Overall 278 km/h 0.1 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

278 km/h Current

Up to 16000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat. 1 or higher
Countries
Green 1 05 Oct 2019 06:00 241 50 thousand No people Northern Mariana Islands
Green 2 05 Oct 2019 12:00 241 200 thousand No people Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Green 3 05 Oct 2019 18:00 241 50 thousand No people Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Green 4 06 Oct 2019 00:00 241 140 thousand No people Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Orange 5 06 Oct 2019 06:00 148 220 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Orange 6 06 Oct 2019 12:00 148 1.6 million 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Green 7 06 Oct 2019 18:00 250 800 thousand No people Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Japan
Green 8 07 Oct 2019 00:00 259 6 million No people Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Japan
Green 9 07 Oct 2019 06:00 278 63.7 million 20 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Japan

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 05 Oct 2019 06:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 15.3, 161.1
GREEN
2 05 Oct 2019 12:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 15.1, 159.2
GREEN
3 05 Oct 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 15.3, 157.8
GREEN
4 06 Oct 2019 00:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 14.9, 155.8
GREEN
5 06 Oct 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 14.2, 154.1
GREEN
6 06 Oct 2019 12:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 14.5, 152.4
GREEN
7 06 Oct 2019 18:00 Category 1 120 53000 people no people 14.9, 151.1 Northern Mariana Islands
GREEN
8 07 Oct 2019 00:00 Category 3 185 210000 people no people 15.1, 149.5 Guam
GREEN
9 07 Oct 2019 06:00 Category 4 241 210000 people <1000 people 15.5, 148.2 Northern Mariana Islands
GREEN
9 07 Oct 2019 18:00 Category 5 269 210000 people no people 16.4, 145.4 Guam
GREEN
9 08 Oct 2019 06:00 Category 5 278 53000 people no people 17.5, 142.8 Northern Mariana Islands
GREEN
9 08 Oct 2019 18:00 Category 5 269 no people no people 18.6, 140.8
GREEN
9 09 Oct 2019 06:00 Category 5 259 <1000 people no people 20, 139.4
GREEN
9 10 Oct 2019 06:00 Category 4 250 2600 people no people 23, 137.2
GREEN
9 11 Oct 2019 06:00 Category 4 222 63.4 million people 15000 people 26.8, 135.1 Japan
GREEN
9 12 Oct 2019 06:00 Category 3 194 no people no people 31.9, 134.9
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Countries

Country
Northern Mariana Is.
Japan

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Northern Mariana Is. Northern Mariana Islands 60000 people
Shikoku Japan 4.3 million people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft) Distance
Nikko 18 0 261 km

Ports

Name LOCODE Country Distance
Farallon de Medinilla Northern Mariana Islands 234 km
Guguan Island Northern Mariana Islands 321 km
Muroto Japan 2423 km
Sakihama Japan 2434 km

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.1m in Garapan, Northern Mariana Islands. This height is estimated for 07 Oct 2019 16:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (4 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 9 of 07 Oct 2019 06:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
07 Oct 2019 16:00 Garapan Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
07 Oct 2019 16:00 Mutcho Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
07 Oct 2019 16:00 Tanapag Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
07 Oct 2019 16:00 San Roque Northern Mariana Islands  0.1