Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for BELNA-19
in Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
11 Dec 2019 06 UTC
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  • GDACS JTWC
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone BELNA-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Exposed countries Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
    Exposed population 50 thousand in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 185 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.8 m (09 Dec 16:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 56 km/h 0.1 m n.a. 0.5
    Overall 185 km/h 0.8 m n.a. 0.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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    Wind

      56 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 1.3 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 04 Dec 2019 18:00 130 490 thousand No people Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
        Green 2 05 Dec 2019 06:00 130 670 thousand Few people Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
        Green 3 05 Dec 2019 18:00 157 850 thousand 50 thousand Madagascar
        Green 4 06 Dec 2019 06:00 167 1.2 million 90 thousand Madagascar
        Green 5 06 Dec 2019 18:00 176 1.2 million 20 thousand Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar
        Red 6 07 Dec 2019 06:00 204 3 million 260 thousand Madagascar
        Orange 7 07 Dec 2019 18:00 120 1.5 million 120 thousand Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar
        Orange 8 08 Dec 2019 06:00 185 1.7 million 70 thousand Madagascar
        Green 9 08 Dec 2019 18:00 167 290 thousand 50 thousand Madagascar
        Green 10 09 Dec 2019 06:00 148 730 thousand 40 thousand Madagascar
        Green 11 09 Dec 2019 18:00 139 1.2 million 60 thousand Madagascar
        Green 12 10 Dec 2019 06:00 111 1.5 million 50 thousand Madagascar
        Green 13 10 Dec 2019 18:00 83 1.7 million 50 thousand Madagascar
        Green 14 11 Dec 2019 06:00 56 1.3 million 50 thousand Madagascar

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 04 Dec 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -6.7, 51.6
          GREEN
          		 2 05 Dec 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -6.7, 50.9
          GREEN
          		 3 05 Dec 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people -7.1, 49.9
          GREEN
          		 4 06 Dec 2019 06:00 Category 1 120 no people no people -7.9, 48.7
          GREEN
          		 5 06 Dec 2019 18:00 Category 1 120 <1000 people <1000 people -9.2, 48.4
          GREEN
          		 6 07 Dec 2019 06:00 Category 2 157 no people <1000 people -9.6, 47.4 Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
          GREEN
          		 7 07 Dec 2019 18:00 Category 3 185 no people <1000 people -10.9, 47.2 Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
          GREEN
          		 8 08 Dec 2019 06:00 Category 2 167 no people no people -12, 46.6 Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
          GREEN
          		 9 08 Dec 2019 18:00 Category 2 167 no people no people -12.9, 46.3
          GREEN
          		 10 09 Dec 2019 06:00 Category 1 148 18000 people 140000 people -14.6, 45.6 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 11 09 Dec 2019 18:00 Category 1 139 49000 people 350000 people -16.5, 44.8 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 12 10 Dec 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 111 no people 570000 people -18.3, 44.8 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 13 10 Dec 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 83 no people 470000 people -19.8, 45.1 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 14 11 Dec 2019 06:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -21, 45.1 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 14 11 Dec 2019 18:00 Tropical depression 37 no people no people -22.3, 46.3 Madagascar
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country
          Madagascar
          Mayotte
          Glorioso Is.
          Seychelles

          Provinces

          Region Province Country
          Toliara Madagascar
          Fianarantsoa Madagascar
          Antananarivo Madagascar
          Mahajanga Madagascar
          Mayotte Mayotte
          Glorioso Is. Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
          Seychelles Seychelles

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          Mandabe WMD 290 Civ. Unpaved No 3500
          Malaimbandy WML 182 Civ. Unpaved No 3900
          Ambatolahy AHY unknown 0
          Belo Sur Tsiribihina BMD 47 Civ. Paved No 4400
          Miandrivazo ZVA 62 Civ. Paved No 3600
          Ankavandra JVA 130 Civ. Unpaved No 3200
          Antsalova WAQ 168 Civ. Unpaved No 3000
          Maintirano MXT 30 Civ. Unpaved No 4200
          Morafenobe TVA unknown 0
          Ambatomainty AMY unknown 0
          Tambohorano WTA 7 Civ. Unpaved No 3200
          Besalampy BPY 38 Civ. Paved No 4900
          Soalala DWB 43 Civ. Paved No 4100
          Mahajanga Amborovy MJN 26 Civ. Paved Yes 7200
          Dzaoudzi Pamanzi DZA 8 Civ. Paved Yes 6000
          Assumption Island 3 Civ. Paved No 3900

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Maintirano MGMXT Madagascar
          Cape St. Andre Madagascar
          Soalala MGDWB Madagascar
          Bali Madagascar
          Majunga (Mahajanga) MGMJN Madagascar
          Astove Island Seychelles
          Assumption Island Seychelles
          Cosmoledo Island Seychelles
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          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

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          StormSurge

          0.8 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.8m in Tsilambana, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 09 Dec 2019 16:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (58 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 13 of 10 Dec 2019 18:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          09 Dec 2019 16:00 Tsilambana Madagascar  0.8
          09 Dec 2019 17:00 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.6
          09 Dec 2019 15:00 Andranovoribe Madagascar  0.6
          09 Dec 2019 14:00 Andanivato Madagascar  0.5
          09 Dec 2019 14:00 Ambatojoby Madagascar  0.5
          09 Dec 2019 14:00 Baly Madagascar  0.5
          09 Dec 2019 17:00 Ambalabao Madagascar  0.4
          09 Dec 2019 17:00 Bevatry Madagascar  0.4
          09 Dec 2019 20:00 Manampatra Madagascar  0.4
          09 Dec 2019 20:00 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.3
          09 Dec 2019 20:00 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.3
          09 Dec 2019 21:00 Voalavo Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 15:00 Tamotamo Madagascar  0.3
          09 Dec 2019 17:00 Andramy Madagascar  0.3
          09 Dec 2019 17:00 Marotaola Madagascar  0.3
          09 Dec 2019 13:00 Boanamary Madagascar  0.3
          09 Dec 2019 13:00 Ampapamena Madagascar  0.3
          09 Dec 2019 13:00 Masokoamena Madagascar  0.3
          09 Dec 2019 13:00 Katsepy Madagascar  0.3
          09 Dec 2019 22:00 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.3
          09 Dec 2019 22:00 Marofototra Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 13:00 Soahanina Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 15:00 Soahazo Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 16:00 Moravano Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 15:00 Ankoadavo Madagascar  0.2
          09 Dec 2019 13:00 Majunga Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 12:00 Reharaka Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 15:00 Appontement Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 17:00 Andramasay Madagascar  0.2
          09 Dec 2019 23:00 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 21:00 Ambozaka Madagascar  0.2
          09 Dec 2019 13:00 Ambondrombe Madagascar  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 01:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 11:00 Maintirano Madagascar  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 22:00 Antanambao Samaka Madagascar  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 12:00 Ampanihy Madagascar  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 23:00 Andopitaly Madagascar  0.1
          11 Dec 2019 01:00 Antohgo Madagascar  0.1
          09 Dec 2019 08:00 Ampasitsilavitra Madagascar  0.1
          09 Dec 2019 12:00 Amboaboaka Madagascar  0.1
          09 Dec 2019 12:00 Matahibory Madagascar  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 12:00 Andemba Madagascar  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 11:00 Manomba Madagascar  0.1
          09 Dec 2019 09:00 Ambalatsingy Madagascar  0.1
          09 Dec 2019 09:00 Ankinganomby Madagascar  0.1
          09 Dec 2019 12:00 Mahabo Madagascar  0.1
          09 Dec 2019 09:00 Antonibe Madagascar  0.1
          09 Dec 2019 13:00 Antsianitia Madagascar  0.1
          09 Dec 2019 13:00 Ampitilova Madagascar  0.1
          09 Dec 2019 09:00 Anjiajia Madagascar  0.1
          09 Dec 2019 09:00 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.1
          09 Dec 2019 09:00 Tsaratanana Madagascar  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 01:00 Ankoakala Madagascar  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 01:00 Marovazha Madagascar  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 12:00 Belailay Madagascar  0.1
          09 Dec 2019 09:00 Ampasindava Madagascar  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 12:00 Manampea Madagascar  0.1
          11 Dec 2019 06:00 Kivalo Est Madagascar  0.1