Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for CHALANE-20
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Botswana
25 Dec 2020 06 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
  • GDACS JTWC
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone CHALANE-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Exposed countries Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Botswana
    Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 111 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (27 Dec 03:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability High (Madagascar)
    Landfall between
    26 Dec 2020 18:00 - 27 Dec 2020 06:00
    in Madagascar

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 83 km/h 0.3 m n.a. 0.5
    Overall 111 km/h 0.3 m n.a. 0.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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    Wind

      83 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 3.6 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 24 Dec 2020 18:00 93 9.3 million No people Madagascar
        Green 2 25 Dec 2020 06:00 83 3.6 million No people Madagascar

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 24 Dec 2020 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -15.8, 57.4
          GREEN
          		 2 25 Dec 2020 06:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -15.9, 55.6
          GREEN
          		 2 25 Dec 2020 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -15.9, 53.9
          GREEN
          		 2 26 Dec 2020 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people 590000 people -15.8, 52.4
          GREEN
          		 2 26 Dec 2020 18:00 Tropical storm 83 no people 2.2 million people -15.9, 51
          GREEN
          		 2 27 Dec 2020 06:00 Tropical storm 83 no people 3.4 million people -16.3, 49.5 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 2 28 Dec 2020 06:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people -17.3, 46.6 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 2 29 Dec 2020 06:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -19, 43.7
          GREEN
          		 2 30 Dec 2020 06:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people -19, 38.5
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country
          Madagascar

          Provinces

          Region Province Country
          Antsiranana Madagascar
          Toamasina Madagascar
          Mahajanga Madagascar
          Antananarivo Madagascar

          Populated places

          Name Region Province Country City class Population
          Antalaha Antsiranana Madagascar City 34000 people
          Mananara Toamasina Madagascar City 41000 people
          Maroantsetra Toamasina Madagascar City 24000 people
          Fenerive Toamasina Madagascar City -
          Mandritsara Mahajanga Madagascar City -
          Ambato Boeni Mahajanga Madagascar City -

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          Antalaha Antsirabato ANM 6 Civ. Paved No 3900
          Mananara Nord WMR 3 Civ. Paved No 4100
          Sainte Marie SMS 2 Civ. Paved No 3300
          Maroantsetra WMN 4 Civ. Paved No 4200
          Mandritsara WMA 307 Civ. Unpaved No 3700
          Befandriana WBD 250 Civ. Unpaved No 4100
          Ambatondrazaka WAM 766 Civ. Unpaved No 4200
          Tsaratanana TTS 327 Civ. Unpaved No 4300
          Andriamena WAD unknown 0
          Madirovalo WMV unknown 0

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Antataha MGANM Madagascar
          Saint Mary Island Madagascar
          Mananara MGWMR Madagascar
          Port Sainte Marie Madagascar
          Maroantsetra MGWMN Madagascar
          Foulpointe Madagascar
          Fenerive Madagascar

          Dams

          Reservoir Dam Name River Year
          Sahamaloto Sahamaloto 1958
          Amboromalandy 1934
          TOP

          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

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          StormSurge

          0.3 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Seranambe, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 27 Dec 2020 03:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (122 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 2 of 25 Dec 2020 06:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          27 Dec 2020 03:00 Seranambe Madagascar  0.3
          26 Dec 2020 12:00 Ilomotro Madagascar  0.3
          26 Dec 2020 12:00 Andohonko Madagascar  0.3
          26 Dec 2020 12:00 Antsisikala Madagascar  0.3
          27 Dec 2020 06:00 Fadrina Madagascar  0.3
          25 Dec 2020 14:00 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.3
          25 Dec 2020 14:00 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.3
          25 Dec 2020 14:00 Mahalevona Madagascar  0.3
          27 Dec 2020 00:00 Fampotabe Madagascar  0.3
          27 Dec 2020 03:00 Manompana Madagascar  0.3
          27 Dec 2020 03:00 Ivontaka Madagascar  0.3
          27 Dec 2020 03:00 Antanambe Madagascar  0.3
          27 Dec 2020 03:00 Soanierana Ivongo Madagascar  0.2
          27 Dec 2020 03:00 Andrangazaha Madagascar  0.2
          27 Dec 2020 02:00 Andilamboahangy Madagascar  0.2
          27 Dec 2020 02:00 Ambatofitarafana Madagascar  0.2
          27 Dec 2020 07:00 Bobasakoa Madagascar  0.2
          26 Dec 2020 23:00 Ambanizana Madagascar  0.2
          26 Dec 2020 23:00 Benjana Madagascar  0.2
          27 Dec 2020 07:00 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.2
          27 Dec 2020 07:00 Tanambao Madagascar  0.2
          27 Dec 2020 07:00 Anjabe Madagascar  0.2
          27 Dec 2020 07:00 Andranomena Madagascar  0.2
          27 Dec 2020 00:00 Rantranavona Madagascar  0.2
          27 Dec 2020 03:00 Ambodimanga Madagascar  0.2
          27 Dec 2020 03:00 Manambato Madagascar  0.2
          27 Dec 2020 07:00 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.2
          25 Dec 2020 14:00 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.2
          27 Dec 2020 08:00 Antanimandry Madagascar  0.2
          27 Dec 2020 00:00 Tampolo Madagascar  0.2
          27 Dec 2020 00:00 Antalavia Madagascar  0.2
          27 Dec 2020 04:00 Fandrarazana Madagascar  0.2
          27 Dec 2020 03:00 Vatobe Madagascar  0.2
          27 Dec 2020 03:00 Antanetilava Madagascar  0.2
          26 Dec 2020 10:00 Ankazomalemy Madagascar  0.2
          27 Dec 2020 05:00 Ampasina Madagascar  0.2
          27 Dec 2020 04:00 Manakalana Madagascar  0.2
          25 Dec 2020 14:00 Manambia Madagascar  0.2
          27 Dec 2020 09:00 Manehoko Madagascar  0.2
          27 Dec 2020 07:00 Mahavanona Madagascar  0.2
          27 Dec 2020 05:00 Antakobola Madagascar  0.2
          27 Dec 2020 05:00 Analanampotsy Madagascar  0.2
          27 Dec 2020 04:00 Ampasimbe Madagascar  0.2
          27 Dec 2020 06:00 Ambatobe Madagascar  0.2
          26 Dec 2020 18:00 Voloina Madagascar  0.2
          27 Dec 2020 03:00 Mananara Madagascar  0.2
          26 Dec 2020 10:00 Ambanisanjo Madagascar  0.2
          26 Dec 2020 23:00 Rantabe Madagascar  0.2
          27 Dec 2020 00:00 Maintimbato Madagascar  0.2
          27 Dec 2020 01:00 Anoromby Madagascar  0.2
          27 Dec 2020 00:00 Fananehana Madagascar  0.2
          26 Dec 2020 23:00 Ambatoharana Madagascar  0.2
          27 Dec 2020 07:00 Fenerive Madagascar  0.2
          26 Dec 2020 09:00 Anjiamalandy Madagascar  0.2
          26 Dec 2020 09:00 Ambariomena Madagascar  0.2
          26 Dec 2020 09:00 Antsahabe Madagascar  0.2
          26 Dec 2020 09:00 Ambodizaotra Madagascar  0.2
          27 Dec 2020 08:00 Andanivato Madagascar  0.2
          27 Dec 2020 08:00 Ambatojoby Madagascar  0.2
          27 Dec 2020 08:00 Andramy Madagascar  0.2
          27 Dec 2020 08:00 Marotaola Madagascar  0.2
          26 Dec 2020 09:00 Antananabe Madagascar  0.2
          27 Dec 2020 07:00 Marokitrana Madagascar  0.2
          26 Dec 2020 09:00 Ampiambesa Madagascar  0.2
          27 Dec 2020 07:00 Bevoay Madagascar  0.2
          26 Dec 2020 09:00 Antetezampolaka Madagascar  0.2
          27 Dec 2020 01:00 Manambolosy Madagascar  0.2
          27 Dec 2020 01:00 Fahambahy Madagascar  0.2
          27 Dec 2020 03:00 Lonkintsy Madagascar  0.2
          27 Dec 2020 03:00 Lokintsy Madagascar  0.2
          27 Dec 2020 03:00 Tanambe Madagascar  0.2
          26 Dec 2020 09:00 Anorotsangana Madagascar  0.2
          27 Dec 2020 07:00 Antsikafoka Madagascar  0.2
          27 Dec 2020 07:00 Madirotelo Madagascar  0.2
          27 Dec 2020 14:00 Antanamazava Madagascar  0.2
          27 Dec 2020 14:00 Ambatomainty Madagascar  0.2
          27 Dec 2020 01:00 Tampolo Madagascar  0.2
          27 Dec 2020 05:00 Vohilava Madagascar  0.2
          27 Dec 2020 03:00 Lohatrozona Madagascar  0.2
          27 Dec 2020 02:00 Ambodiatafa Madagascar  0.2
          29 Dec 2020 02:00 Soahanina Madagascar  0.2
          27 Dec 2020 06:00 Maromokotra Madagascar  0.2
          27 Dec 2020 16:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.1
          27 Dec 2020 04:00 Ambodifototra Madagascar  0.1
          26 Dec 2020 23:00 Vinanivao Madagascar  0.1
          26 Dec 2020 21:00 Anaovandrano Madagascar  0.1
          27 Dec 2020 06:00 Antanifatsy Madagascar  0.1
          27 Dec 2020 07:00 Mahambo Madagascar  0.1
          27 Dec 2020 11:00 Ananalava Madagascar  0.1
          27 Dec 2020 07:00 Anjiabe Madagascar  0.1
          29 Dec 2020 06:00 Baly Madagascar  0.1
          29 Dec 2020 02:00 Reharaka Madagascar  0.1
          27 Dec 2020 07:00 Namahoaka Madagascar  0.1
          26 Dec 2020 14:00 Mahatsaborimaika Madagascar  0.1
          27 Dec 2020 07:00 Mahatsara Madagascar  0.1
          26 Dec 2020 11:00 Ampanakana Madagascar  0.1
          27 Dec 2020 06:00 Antsorokaka Madagascar  0.1
          26 Dec 2020 21:00 Maniroka Madagascar  0.1
          27 Dec 2020 07:00 Ampandrano Madagascar  0.1
          27 Dec 2020 07:00 Mandrony Madagascar  0.1
          27 Dec 2020 07:00 Marovato Madagascar  0.1
          27 Dec 2020 10:00 Analalava Madagascar  0.1
          27 Dec 2020 07:00 Ampasimpilily Madagascar  0.1
          27 Dec 2020 12:00 Mailakapasy Madagascar  0.1
          27 Dec 2020 06:00 Fararano Madagascar  0.1
          26 Dec 2020 21:00 Anjanozana Madagascar  0.1
          26 Dec 2020 21:00 Ampanavoana Madagascar  0.1
          27 Dec 2020 07:00 Andrafialava Madagascar  0.1
          27 Dec 2020 07:00 Ampasibe Madagascar  0.1
          29 Dec 2020 04:00 Tamotamo Madagascar  0.1
          27 Dec 2020 07:00 Foulpointe Madagascar  0.1
          27 Dec 2020 10:00 Antsahampano Madagascar  0.1
          27 Dec 2020 14:00 Ambatoxavavy Madagascar  0.1
          27 Dec 2020 14:00 Andrafia Madagascar  0.1
          27 Dec 2020 15:00 Nosy Faly Madagascar  0.1
          27 Dec 2020 07:00 Ambaramidada Madagascar  0.1
          26 Dec 2020 21:00 Antanjokatafana Madagascar  0.1
          26 Dec 2020 22:00 Ratsianarana Madagascar  0.1
          26 Dec 2020 22:00 Ambodivato Madagascar  0.1
          27 Dec 2020 07:00 Bejongoro Madagascar  0.1
          29 Dec 2020 06:00 Tsilambana Madagascar  0.1
          27 Dec 2020 06:00 Ampombilava Madagascar  0.1