Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELOISE-21
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELOISE-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS
Exposed countries Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
Exposed population 1 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 139 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.6 m (20 Jan 02:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)
Landfall between
19 Jan 2021 18:00 - 20 Jan 2021 06:00

in Madagascar

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
Current 111 km/h 0.6 m n.a. 0.5
Overall 139 km/h 0.6 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

Wind

111 km/h Current Max.

Up to 5.7 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm or higher
Population in
Cat 1. or higher
Countries
Green 1 17 Jan 2021 06:00 102 3.1 million No people Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
Green 2 17 Jan 2021 18:00 111 3.2 million No people Madagascar
Green 3 18 Jan 2021 06:00 111 5.7 million No people Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mozambique

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category
(SSHS)
Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
or higher
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 17 Jan 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -12.6, 62.1
GREEN
2 17 Jan 2021 18:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -13.2, 59.6
GREEN
3 18 Jan 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people -13.7, 56.6
GREEN
3 18 Jan 2021 18:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people -14.5, 54.3
GREEN
3 19 Jan 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 102 430000 people no people -15.1, 52.5
GREEN
3 19 Jan 2021 18:00 Tropical storm 111 1.6 million people no people -15.5, 51
GREEN
3 20 Jan 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 102 2.2 million people no people -15.8, 49 Madagascar
GREEN
3 21 Jan 2021 06:00 Tropical depression 56 210000 people no people -17, 45.1 Madagascar
GREEN
3 22 Jan 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 74 2.8 million people no people -18.9, 41.2
GREEN
3 23 Jan 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people -20.7, 37.6
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
Download:



Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Madagascar
Juan De Nova I.
Mozambique

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Antsiranana Madagascar 820000 people
Toamasina Madagascar 1.8 million people
Mahajanga Madagascar 1.4 million people
Juan De Nova I. Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands -
Zambezia Mozambique 3.4 million people
Sofala Mozambique 1.5 million people
Manica Mozambique 880000 people
Inhambane Mozambique 1.3 million people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population
Antalaha Antsiranana Madagascar City 34000 people
Andapa Antsiranana Madagascar City 20000 people
Maroantsetra Toamasina Madagascar City 24000 people
Mananara Toamasina Madagascar City 41000 people
Mandritsara Mahajanga Madagascar City -
Marovoay Mahajanga Madagascar City 31000 people
Ambato Boeni Mahajanga Madagascar City -
Quelimane Zambezia Mozambique City 190000 people
Beira Sofala Mozambique Major city 520000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
Antalaha Antsirabato ANM 6 Civ. Paved No 3900
Andapa ZWA 473 Civ. Paved No 4100
Maroantsetra WMN 4 Civ. Paved No 4200
Mananara Nord WMR 3 Civ. Paved No 4100
Mandritsara WMA 307 Civ. Unpaved No 3700
Befandriana WBD 250 Civ. Unpaved No 4100
Port Berge WPB 65 Civ. Unpaved No 4200
Tsaratanana TTS 327 Civ. Unpaved No 4300
Madirovalo WMV unknown 0
Morafenobe TVA unknown 0
Besalampy BPY 38 Civ. Paved No 4900
Tambohorano WTA 7 Civ. Unpaved No 3200
Maintirano MXT 30 Civ. Unpaved No 4200
Quelimane UEL 11 Civ. Paved Yes 5900
Chinde INE unknown 0
Luabo LBM unknown 0
Beira BEW 10 Civ. Paved Yes 7800
Vilanculos VNX 14 Civ. Paved Yes 4800
Vila Franca Do Save 30 0

Ports

Name LOCODE Country
Antataha MGANM Madagascar
Maroantsetra MGWMN Madagascar
Mananara MGWMR Madagascar
Saint Mary Island Madagascar
Maintirano MGMXT Madagascar
Porto Belo MZPBE Mozambique
Porto de Quelimane MZUEL Mozambique
Vila Do Chinde Mozambique
Chinde MZINE Mozambique
Bazaruto Island Mozambique
Beira MZBEW Mozambique
Bartolomeo Diaz Mozambique
Nova Mambone Mozambique
Vilanculas Mozambique

Dams

Reservoir Dam Name River Year
Ambilivily 1954
Amboromalandy 1934

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.6 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.6m in Rantabe, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 20 Jan 2021 02:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (170 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 3 of 18 Jan 2021 06:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
20 Jan 2021 02:00 Rantabe Madagascar  0.6
20 Jan 2021 00:00 Ambanizana Madagascar  0.6
20 Jan 2021 00:00 Benjana Madagascar  0.6
20 Jan 2021 00:00 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.6
20 Jan 2021 00:00 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.6
20 Jan 2021 00:00 Mahalevona Madagascar  0.5
20 Jan 2021 02:00 Maintimbato Madagascar  0.5
20 Jan 2021 00:00 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.5
20 Jan 2021 00:00 Tampolo Madagascar  0.5
20 Jan 2021 00:00 Manambia Madagascar  0.4
20 Jan 2021 00:00 Voloina Madagascar  0.4
20 Jan 2021 02:00 Fananehana Madagascar  0.4
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Baly Madagascar  0.4
20 Jan 2021 00:00 Antalavia Madagascar  0.4
20 Jan 2021 02:00 Anoromby Madagascar  0.4
20 Jan 2021 02:00 Manambolosy Madagascar  0.4
19 Jan 2021 22:00 Anjanozana Madagascar  0.4
20 Jan 2021 02:00 Tampolo Madagascar  0.4
20 Jan 2021 02:00 Mananara Madagascar  0.4
20 Jan 2021 02:00 Fahambahy Madagascar  0.4
19 Jan 2021 21:00 Maniroka Madagascar  0.4
19 Jan 2021 22:00 Anaovandrano Madagascar  0.3
19 Jan 2021 22:00 Ampanavoana Madagascar  0.3
19 Jan 2021 21:00 Antanjokatafana Madagascar  0.3
19 Jan 2021 21:00 Ratsianarana Madagascar  0.3
19 Jan 2021 21:00 Ambodivato Madagascar  0.3
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Boanamary Madagascar  0.3
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.3
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Maconharumo Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Amado Mozambique  0.3
19 Jan 2021 23:00 Rantranavona Madagascar  0.3
20 Jan 2021 02:00 Andilamboahangy Madagascar  0.3
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Mulia Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Nhangau Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Damiao Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Chamba Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Beira Mozambique  0.3
19 Jan 2021 23:00 Fampotabe Madagascar  0.3
19 Jan 2021 22:00 Vinanivao Madagascar  0.3
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Tsilambana Madagascar  0.3
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Chimuaza Mozambique  0.3
19 Jan 2021 23:00 Ambatoharana Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Ambalabao Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Bevatry Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Ocone Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Manampea Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Katsepy Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Majunga Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 02:00 Ivontaka Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Tama Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Jonja Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Machesse Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.2
20 Jan 2021 02:00 Ambodimanga Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Marovazha Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Onara Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Barra Mozambique  0.2
20 Jan 2021 02:00 Seranambe Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 02:00 Antanambe Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Quelimane do Sal Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Inhangulue Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Magromane Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Chofandicho Mozambique  0.2
20 Jan 2021 02:00 Ambatofitarafana Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Morrua Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Ampanihy Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 19:00 Ambohitralanana Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Ankoakala Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Panaca Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Rupia Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Reharaka Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 02:00 Manambato Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Ambatomilahy Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Tambohorano Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Manomba Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Bingue Mozambique  0.2
20 Jan 2021 03:00 Fandrarazana Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 03:00 Manompana Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Maintirano Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 14:00 Antsafy Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Belailay Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Andranovoribe Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Raraga Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Ampapamena Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Masokoamena Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Chululu Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Nosy Faly Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Manehoko Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 01:00 Soanierana Ivongo Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 01:00 Andrangazaha Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 03:00 Vatobe Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 03:00 Antanetilava Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 14:00 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Metapa Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Anjiabe Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Ambalatsingy Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Ankinganomby Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Anjiajia Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Ampombilava Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Andriana Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Antanamazava Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Marofototra Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Manampatra Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Voalavo Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Tsaratanana Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Ampasindava Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Moebase Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Namorre Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Antanimandry Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Tanambao Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Anjabe Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Andranomena Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Ambatomainty Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Mutiba Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Caliua Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Antaribao Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Ankinganifahatelo Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 07:00 Maromokotra Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Murrumuana Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Ampitilova Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Ambatoxavavy Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Andrafia Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Ambaramidada Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 03:00 Manakalana Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 03:00 Lokintsy Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 03:00 Ambodiatafa Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Andemba Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 04:00 Analanampotsy Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Mendozo Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Tomodo Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2021 04:00 Mahavanona Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 04:00 Ampasina Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 04:00 Antakobola Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Analalava Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 03:00 Ambodifototra Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 03:00 Lonkintsy Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 03:00 Tanambe Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 20:00 Antsirabato Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 20:00 Anjahamarina Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 03:00 Ampasimbe Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Napito Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Mutadua Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2021 01:00 Vohilava Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 03:00 Lohatrozona Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 21:00 Ambalabe Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Andanivato Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Ambatojoby Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Andramy Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Marotaola Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Manometimay Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Antsamaka Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Morondava Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Antserananbondro Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Kivalo Est Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 04:00 Fenerive Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Antsianitia Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Anjajavy Madagascar  0.1