Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for NORA-21
in Mexico
30 Aug 2021 09 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
  • GDACS NOAA
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone NORA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Glide number: TC-2021-000122-MEX
    Exposed countries Mexico
    Exposed population 1.4 million in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 139 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.7 m (29 Aug 07:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)
    Landfall between
    29 Aug 2021 03:00 - 29 Aug 2021 09:00
    in Mexico

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 46 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 0.5
    Overall 139 km/h 0.7 m n.a. 1.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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    Wind

      46 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 11.7 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 25 Aug 2021 21:00 139 620 thousand No people Mexico
        Green 2 26 Aug 2021 03:00 130 900 thousand No people Mexico
        Green 3 26 Aug 2021 09:00 130 1.9 million No people Mexico
        Green 4 26 Aug 2021 15:00 139 3.9 million No people Mexico
        Orange 5 26 Aug 2021 21:00 139 4 million 640 thousand Mexico
        Orange 6 27 Aug 2021 03:00 139 2.9 million 510 thousand Mexico
        Orange 7 27 Aug 2021 09:00 148 3.1 million 260 thousand Mexico
        Green 8 27 Aug 2021 15:00 139 7.6 million 8 thousand Mexico
        Green 9 27 Aug 2021 21:00 148 4.7 million 40 thousand Mexico
        Orange 10 28 Aug 2021 03:00 130 9.2 million 160 thousand Mexico
        Orange 11 28 Aug 2021 09:00 130 6 million 180 thousand Mexico
        Green 12 28 Aug 2021 15:00 148 8.3 million 20 thousand Mexico
        Orange 13 28 Aug 2021 21:00 139 14.2 million 600 thousand Mexico
        Orange 14 29 Aug 2021 03:00 120 14.4 million 1.1 million Mexico
        Orange 15 29 Aug 2021 09:00 120 14.5 million 1.4 million Mexico
        Orange 16 29 Aug 2021 15:00 120 14.6 million 1.3 million Mexico
        Green 17 29 Aug 2021 21:00 93 13.5 million 1.4 million Mexico
        Green 18 30 Aug 2021 03:00 65 12.5 million 1.4 million Mexico
        Green 19 30 Aug 2021 09:00 46 11.7 million 1.4 million Mexico

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 25 Aug 2021 21:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 11.7, -99.4
          GREEN
          		 2 26 Aug 2021 03:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 11.9, -100.1
          GREEN
          		 3 26 Aug 2021 09:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 12, -100.6
          GREEN
          		 4 26 Aug 2021 15:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 12.5, -100.8
          GREEN
          		 5 26 Aug 2021 21:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 13.4, -101.7
          GREEN
          		 6 27 Aug 2021 03:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 14.1, -102.6
          GREEN
          		 7 27 Aug 2021 09:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 14.6, -103.5
          GREEN
          		 8 27 Aug 2021 15:00 Tropical storm 83 no people 610000 people 15.4, -104.3
          GREEN
          		 9 27 Aug 2021 21:00 Tropical storm 102 no people 1.2 million people 15.5, -104.9
          GREEN
          		 10 28 Aug 2021 03:00 Tropical storm 102 no people 2.2 million people 16.3, -105.1
          GREEN
          		 11 28 Aug 2021 09:00 Category 1 120 no people 1.9 million people 17.1, -105.2
          GREEN
          		 12 28 Aug 2021 15:00 Category 1 130 14000 people 2.8 million people 18.4, -105.4
          ORANGE
          		 13 28 Aug 2021 21:00 Category 1 139 470000 people 8.7 million people 19.7, -105.4 Mexico
          GREEN
          		 14 29 Aug 2021 03:00 Category 1 120 73000 people 2.4 million people 21.3, -105.5
          ORANGE
          		 15 29 Aug 2021 09:00 Category 1 120 640000 people 2.8 million people 22.5, -105.9 Mexico
          ORANGE
          		 16 29 Aug 2021 15:00 Category 1 120 590000 people 2 million people 23.3, -106.4 Mexico
          GREEN
          		 17 29 Aug 2021 21:00 Tropical storm 93 no people 1.7 million people 24.3, -107.5 Mexico
          GREEN
          		 18 30 Aug 2021 03:00 Tropical storm 65 no people 1.3 million people 24.8, -107.9 Mexico
          GREEN
          		 19 30 Aug 2021 09:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 25.3, -108.1 Mexico
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country
          Mexico

          Provinces

          Region Province Country
          Sinaloa Mexico
          Durango Mexico
          Nayarit Mexico
          Zacatecas Mexico
          Jalisco Mexico
          Colima Mexico
          Michoacan Mexico
          Guerrero Mexico

          Populated places

          Name Region Province Country City class Population
          Guamúchil Sinaloa Mexico City 57000 people
          Culiacán Sinaloa Mexico Major city 540000 people
          El Dorado Sinaloa Mexico City -
          Mazatlan Sinaloa Mexico Major city 330000 people
          Villa Unión Sinaloa Mexico City 13000 people
          Escuinapa Sinaloa Mexico City 28000 people
          Acaponeta Nayarit Mexico City 18000 people
          Tecuala Nayarit Mexico City 15000 people
          Tuxpan Nayarit Mexico City 23000 people
          Santiago Ixcuintla Nayarit Mexico City -
          Tepic Nayarit Mexico Major city 280000 people
          Compostela Nayarit Mexico City 16000 people
          Punta Mita Nayarit Mexico City -
          Puerto Vallarta Jalisco Mexico City 190000 people
          San Martín de Bolaños Nayarit Mexico City -
          Ahuacatlán Nayarit Mexico City 6300 people
          Ixtlán del Río Nayarit Mexico City 21000 people
          Talpa de Allende Jalisco Mexico City -
          Etzatlán Jalisco Mexico City 13000 people
          Ahulalulco de Mercado Jalisco Mexico City -
          Amatitán Jalisco Mexico City 9400 people
          Ameca Jalisco Mexico City 35000 people
          Cocula Jalisco Mexico City 14000 people
          Guadalajara Jalisco Mexico Major city 1.6 million people
          Autlán Jalisco Mexico City 40000 people
          Zacoalco de Torres Jalisco Mexico City -
          Chapala Jalisco Mexico City 20000 people
          Atoyac Jalisco Mexico City 5300 people
          Sayula Jalisco Mexico City 25000 people
          Ciudad Guzmán Jalisco Mexico City -
          Manzanillo Colima Mexico City 110000 people
          Tamazula de Gordiano Jalisco Mexico City -
          Colima Colima Mexico Major city 130000 people
          Tecalitlán Jalisco Mexico City 13000 people
          Armería Colima Mexico City 16000 people
          Tecomán Colima Mexico City 75000 people
          Coalcomán Michoacán de Ocampo Mexico City 10000 people
          Apatzingan Michoacán de Ocampo Mexico City 94000 people
          Petatlán Guerrero Mexico City 20000 people

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          Guamuchil 24 0
          Fedl de Bachigualato CUL 33 Civ. Paved Yes 7500
          Campo Gobierno 13 0
          Cosala 76 0
          General Rafael Buelna International MZT 10 Civ. Paved Yes 8800
          Rancho los Cabras 3 0
          Teacapan 6 0
          Acaponeta 84 0
          Isla Maria Madre 5 0
          La Candelaria del Alto 1940 0
          San Blas 3 0
          Tepic TPQ 960 Civ. Paved Yes 7500
          El Llano 12 0
          Lic Gustavo Diaz Ordaz International PVR 6 Civ. Paved Yes 10100
          La Gloria 34 0
          Zapopan ZAP 1625 0
          Miguel Hidal GDL 1528 Civ. Paved Yes 13100
          Autlan 884 0
          Playa de Oro International ZLO 8 Civ. Paved Yes 7200
          Ciudad Guzman 1520 0
          Tuxpan 1225 Mil. Paved No 6700
          Colima CLQ 723 Civ. Paved Yes 7500
          Coahuayana 61 0
          Pablo L Sidar AZG 315 0
          El Infiernillo 511 0
          Lazaro Cardenas LZC 12 Civ. Paved No 4900
          Ixtapa Zihuatanejo International ZIH 6 Civ. Paved Yes 8200

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Altata Mexico
          Mazatlan MXMZT Mexico
          San Blas MXSBS Mexico
          Puerto Vallarta MXPVR Mexico
          Ipala Mexico
          El Tabaco Mexico
          Chamela Mexico
          Manzanillo MXZLO Mexico
          Lazaro Cardenas MXLZC Mexico

          Dams

          Reservoir Dam Name River Year
          Eustaquio Mocorito 1972
          Presidente Adolfo Lopez Mateos Humaya 1964
          Sinaloa Tamazula 1948
          Presa Juan Guerrero Juan Guerrero El Bledal 1994
          Presidente Jose L. Portillo San Lorenzo 1981
          El Salto Elota 1985
          Agua Milpa Agua Milpa Santiago 1994
          Corrinchis Mascota 1977
          Cajon de Peda Tomatlan 1976
          La Vega Teuchitlan 1956
          Tacotan Amuquila 1958
          Trigomil Ayuquila 1993
          Basilio Vadillo Basilio Vadillo San Migue 1973
          Trojes Coahuayana 1994
          Chilatan Tepalcatepec 1986
          Inhernillo El Infiernillo Balsas 1963
          Jose M. Morelos Balsas 1968
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          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

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          StormSurge

          0.7 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.7m in Santa Cruz, Mexico. This height is estimated for 29 Aug 2021 07:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (51 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 18 of 30 Aug 2021 03:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          29 Aug 2021 07:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.7
          29 Aug 2021 08:00 Cuamecate Mexico  0.7
          29 Aug 2021 07:00 El Nuevo Mexico  0.6
          29 Aug 2021 06:00 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.6
          29 Aug 2021 12:00 Caimanero Mexico  0.6
          29 Aug 2021 04:00 San Blas Mexico  0.6
          30 Aug 2021 01:00 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.6
          29 Aug 2021 18:00 Perihuete Mexico  0.5
          29 Aug 2021 11:00 Jarilla Mexico  0.5
          29 Aug 2021 16:00 Marmol Mexico  0.5
          29 Aug 2021 13:00 La Palmita Mexico  0.5
          29 Aug 2021 15:00 Mazatlan Mexico  0.5
          29 Aug 2021 18:00 Dimas Mexico  0.4
          29 Aug 2021 11:00 La Puerta Mexico  0.4
          29 Aug 2021 21:00 La Boca Mexico  0.4
          29 Aug 2021 09:00 Cuantla Mexico  0.4
          29 Aug 2021 10:00 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.4
          29 Aug 2021 14:00 Barron Mexico  0.4
          29 Aug 2021 09:00 Novillero Mexico  0.4
          29 Aug 2021 15:00 Florida Mexico  0.4
          30 Aug 2021 01:00 El Castillo Mexico  0.4
          29 Aug 2021 01:00 Cruz de Juanacaxtle Mexico  0.4
          28 Aug 2021 21:00 Chola Mexico  0.4
          29 Aug 2021 01:00 Punta Mita Mexico  0.3
          29 Aug 2021 04:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.3
          29 Aug 2021 02:00 San Francisco Mexico  0.3
          29 Aug 2021 02:00 Monteon Mexico  0.3
          28 Aug 2021 23:00 Ipala Mexico  0.2
          28 Aug 2021 20:00 Chamela Mexico  0.2
          28 Aug 2021 23:00 Aquiles Serdan Mexico  0.2
          29 Aug 2021 00:00 Corrales Mexico  0.2
          30 Aug 2021 12:00 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.2
          30 Aug 2021 13:00 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.2
          30 Aug 2021 02:00 Altata Mexico  0.2
          28 Aug 2021 19:00 Cuitzmala Mexico  0.2
          28 Aug 2021 19:00 La Manzanilla Mexico  0.1
          29 Aug 2021 00:00 Pizota Mexico  0.1
          29 Aug 2021 01:00 Puerto Vallarta Mexico  0.1
          28 Aug 2021 17:00 Estrecho Mexico  0.1
          28 Aug 2021 18:00 Barra de Navidad Mexico  0.1
          26 Aug 2021 23:00 Cachimba Mexico  0.1
          28 Aug 2021 16:00 El Ciruelo Mexico  0.1
          28 Aug 2021 17:00 Manzanillo Mexico  0.1
          28 Aug 2021 17:00 Santiago Mexico  0.1
          29 Aug 2021 03:00 La Lima Mexico  0.1
          31 Aug 2021 04:00 Las Bocas Mexico  0.1
          31 Aug 2021 04:00 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.1
          28 Aug 2021 16:00 Cuyutlan Mexico  0.1
          28 Aug 2021 16:00 El Real Mexico  0.1
          28 Aug 2021 16:00 Chupadero Mexico  0.1
          30 Aug 2021 19:00 Cachoana Mexico  0.1