Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for NORA-21
in Mexico

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NORA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS
Glide number: TC-2021-000122-MEX
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population 1.4 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 139 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (31 Aug 21:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)
Landfall between
31 Aug 2021 18:00 - 01 Sep 2021 18:00

in Mexico

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
Current 148 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 0.5
Overall 139 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

Wind

148 km/h Current Max.

Up to 43000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm or higher
Population in
Cat 1. or higher
Countries
Green 1 25 Aug 2021 21:00 139 620 thousand No people Mexico
Green 2 26 Aug 2021 03:00 130 900 thousand No people Mexico
Green 3 26 Aug 2021 09:00 130 1.9 million No people Mexico
Green 4 26 Aug 2021 15:00 139 3.9 million No people Mexico
Orange 5 26 Aug 2021 21:00 139 4 million 640 thousand Mexico
Orange 6 27 Aug 2021 03:00 139 2.9 million 510 thousand Mexico
Orange 7 27 Aug 2021 09:00 148 3.1 million 260 thousand Mexico
Green 8 27 Aug 2021 15:00 139 7.6 million 8 thousand Mexico
Green 9 27 Aug 2021 21:00 148 4.7 million 40 thousand Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category
(SSHS)
Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
or higher
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 25 Aug 2021 21:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 11.7, -99.4
GREEN
2 26 Aug 2021 03:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 11.9, -100.1
GREEN
3 26 Aug 2021 09:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 12, -100.6
GREEN
4 26 Aug 2021 15:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 12.5, -100.8
GREEN
5 26 Aug 2021 21:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 13.4, -101.7
GREEN
6 27 Aug 2021 03:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 14.1, -102.6
GREEN
7 27 Aug 2021 09:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 14.6, -103.5
GREEN
8 27 Aug 2021 15:00 Tropical storm 83 610000 people no people 15.4, -104.3
GREEN
9 27 Aug 2021 21:00 Tropical storm 102 1.2 million people no people 15.5, -104.9
GREEN
9 28 Aug 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 111 340000 people no people 16.5, -105.6
GREEN
9 28 Aug 2021 18:00 Category 1 120 770000 people no people 18.3, -106.2
GREEN
9 29 Aug 2021 06:00 Category 1 130 550000 people no people 20.3, -107
GREEN
9 29 Aug 2021 18:00 Category 1 139 370000 people no people 21.9, -107.8
GREEN
9 30 Aug 2021 06:00 Category 1 148 590000 people 19000 people 22.9, -108.6
GREEN
9 30 Aug 2021 18:00 Category 1 148 1.3 million people 17000 people 23.9, -109.4
GREEN
9 31 Aug 2021 18:00 Category 1 130 1.8 million people 22000 people 25.9, -110.9
GREEN
9 01 Sep 2021 18:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 28.4, -111.8 Mexico
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
Download:



Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Mexico

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Baja California Sur Mexico 350000 people
Sonora Mexico 2 million people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
Punta Colorada PCO unknown 0
Punta Pescadero 7 0
Loreto LTO 3 Civ. Paved Yes 7200

Ports

Name LOCODE Country
Buenavista Mexico
Bahia Salinas Mexico
Loreto Mexico

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Topolobampo, Mexico. This height is estimated for 31 Aug 2021 21:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (50 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 9 of 27 Aug 2021 21:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
31 Aug 2021 21:00 Topolobampo Mexico  0.2
31 Aug 2021 02:00 La Paz Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 15:00 Los Frailes Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 16:00 Punta Arena Mexico  0.2
31 Aug 2021 15:00 Cachoana Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 15:00 Los Tesos Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 16:00 Punta Colorada Mexico  0.2
31 Aug 2021 00:00 Datilito Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 21:00 La Ventana Mexico  0.2
31 Aug 2021 18:00 Ligui Mexico  0.2
31 Aug 2021 16:00 San Cosme Mexico  0.2
31 Aug 2021 21:00 San Bruno Mexico  0.2
31 Aug 2021 21:00 Las Bocas Mexico  0.2
31 Aug 2021 16:00 El Guatamota Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 21:00 Ensenada de los Muertos Mexico  0.2
31 Aug 2021 00:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
31 Aug 2021 19:00 Loreto Mexico  0.2
31 Aug 2021 14:00 Santa Marta Mexico  0.2
27 Aug 2021 08:00 Huajapan Mexico  0.2
31 Aug 2021 13:00 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 17:00 El Castillo Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 17:00 La Ribera Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 01:00 Rosario Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 08:00 El Roble Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 20:00 La Trinadad Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 23:00 La Palmita Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 03:00 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 18:00 Altata Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 18:00 Las Palmas Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 17:00 Tripui Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 02:00 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 05:00 Novillero Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 05:00 Cuantla Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 10:00 Los Burros Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 14:00 Tambobiche Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 09:00 Cachimba Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 18:00 La Florida Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 18:00 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 02:00 Caimanero Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 02:00 Jarilla Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 02:00 La Puerta Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 14:00 La Boca Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 12:00 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 09:00 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 21:00 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 02:00 Cuamecate Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 19:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 19:00 El Nuevo Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 01:00 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 21:00 San Jose Mexico  0.1