Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for NORA-21
in Mexico

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NORA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS
Glide number: TC-2021-000122-MEX
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population 1.4 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 139 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.7 m (01 Sep 13:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)
Landfall between
31 Aug 2021 18:00 - 01 Sep 2021 18:00

in Mexico

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 139 km/h 0.7 m n.a. 1.5
GDACS Overall 139 km/h 0.7 m n.a. 1.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

139 km/h Current Max.

Up to 590000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm or higher
Population in
Cat 1. or higher
Countries
Green 1 25 Aug 2021 21:00 139 620 thousand No people Mexico
Green 2 26 Aug 2021 03:00 130 900 thousand No people Mexico
Green 3 26 Aug 2021 09:00 130 1.9 million No people Mexico
Green 4 26 Aug 2021 15:00 139 3.9 million No people Mexico
Orange 5 26 Aug 2021 21:00 139 4 million 640 thousand Mexico
Orange 6 27 Aug 2021 03:00 139 2.9 million 510 thousand Mexico
Orange 7 27 Aug 2021 09:00 148 3.1 million 260 thousand Mexico
Green 8 27 Aug 2021 15:00 139 7.6 million 8 thousand Mexico
Green 9 27 Aug 2021 21:00 148 4.7 million 40 thousand Mexico
Orange 10 28 Aug 2021 03:00 130 9.2 million 160 thousand Mexico
Orange 11 28 Aug 2021 09:00 130 6 million 180 thousand Mexico
Green 12 28 Aug 2021 15:00 148 8.3 million 20 thousand Mexico
Orange 13 28 Aug 2021 21:00 139 14.2 million 600 thousand Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 25 Aug 2021 21:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 11.7, -99.4
GREEN
2 26 Aug 2021 03:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 11.9, -100.1
GREEN
3 26 Aug 2021 09:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 12, -100.6
GREEN
4 26 Aug 2021 15:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 12.5, -100.8
GREEN
5 26 Aug 2021 21:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 13.4, -101.7
GREEN
6 27 Aug 2021 03:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 14.1, -102.6
GREEN
7 27 Aug 2021 09:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 14.6, -103.5
GREEN
8 27 Aug 2021 15:00 Tropical storm 83 600000 people no people 15.4, -104.3
GREEN
9 27 Aug 2021 21:00 Tropical storm 102 1.2 million people no people 15.5, -104.9
GREEN
10 28 Aug 2021 03:00 Tropical storm 102 2.2 million people no people 16.3, -105.1
GREEN
11 28 Aug 2021 09:00 Category 1 120 1.9 million people no people 17.1, -105.2
GREEN
12 28 Aug 2021 15:00 Category 1 130 2.8 million people 13000 people 18.4, -105.4
ORANGE
13 28 Aug 2021 21:00 Category 1 139 8.6 million people 470000 people 19.7, -105.4 Mexico
GREEN
13 29 Aug 2021 06:00 Category 1 139 2.1 million people <1000 people 21.5, -105.9
GREEN
13 29 Aug 2021 18:00 Category 1 139 970000 people no people 22.9, -106.7
GREEN
13 30 Aug 2021 06:00 Category 1 139 1.7 million people no people 23.5, -107.4
GREEN
13 30 Aug 2021 18:00 Category 1 139 2 million people no people 24.2, -108.1
GREEN
13 31 Aug 2021 06:00 Category 1 130 1.1 million people 6300 people 24.8, -108.9
ORANGE
13 31 Aug 2021 18:00 Category 1 130 1.6 million people 120000 people 25.6, -109.5
GREEN
13 01 Sep 2021 18:00 Tropical storm 102 1.5 million people no people 27.6, -110.4 Mexico
GREEN
13 02 Sep 2021 18:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 29.4, -110.6 Mexico
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
Download:



Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Mexico

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Jalisco Mexico 5.7 million people
Nayarit Mexico 890000 people
Sinaloa Mexico 2.3 million people
Sonora Mexico 1.9 million people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population
Puerto Vallarta Jalisco Mexico City 180000 people
Punta Mita Nayarit Mexico City -
Yaqui Sonora Mexico City 14000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
La Gloria 34 0
Lic Gustavo Diaz Ordaz International PVR 6 Civ. Paved Yes 10100

Ports

Name LOCODE Country
El Tabaco Mexico
Chamela Mexico
Ipala Mexico
Puerto Vallarta MXPVR Mexico

Dams

Reservoir Dam Name River Year
Cajon de Peda Tomatlan 1976

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.7 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.7m in Santa Cruz, Mexico. This height is estimated for 29 Aug 2021 07:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (51 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 18 of 30 Aug 2021 03:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
29 Aug 2021 07:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.7
29 Aug 2021 08:00 Cuamecate Mexico  0.7
29 Aug 2021 07:00 El Nuevo Mexico  0.6
29 Aug 2021 06:00 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.6
29 Aug 2021 12:00 Caimanero Mexico  0.6
29 Aug 2021 04:00 San Blas Mexico  0.6
30 Aug 2021 01:00 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.6
29 Aug 2021 18:00 Perihuete Mexico  0.5
29 Aug 2021 11:00 Jarilla Mexico  0.5
29 Aug 2021 16:00 Marmol Mexico  0.5
29 Aug 2021 13:00 La Palmita Mexico  0.5
29 Aug 2021 15:00 Mazatlan Mexico  0.5
29 Aug 2021 18:00 Dimas Mexico  0.4
29 Aug 2021 11:00 La Puerta Mexico  0.4
29 Aug 2021 21:00 La Boca Mexico  0.4
29 Aug 2021 09:00 Cuantla Mexico  0.4
29 Aug 2021 10:00 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.4
29 Aug 2021 14:00 Barron Mexico  0.4
29 Aug 2021 09:00 Novillero Mexico  0.4
29 Aug 2021 15:00 Florida Mexico  0.4
30 Aug 2021 01:00 El Castillo Mexico  0.4
29 Aug 2021 01:00 Cruz de Juanacaxtle Mexico  0.4
28 Aug 2021 21:00 Chola Mexico  0.4
29 Aug 2021 01:00 Punta Mita Mexico  0.3
29 Aug 2021 04:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.3
29 Aug 2021 02:00 San Francisco Mexico  0.3
29 Aug 2021 02:00 Monteon Mexico  0.3
28 Aug 2021 23:00 Ipala Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 20:00 Chamela Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 23:00 Aquiles Serdan Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 00:00 Corrales Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 12:00 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 13:00 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 02:00 Altata Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 19:00 Cuitzmala Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 19:00 La Manzanilla Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 00:00 Pizota Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 01:00 Puerto Vallarta Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 17:00 Estrecho Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 18:00 Barra de Navidad Mexico  0.1
26 Aug 2021 23:00 Cachimba Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 16:00 El Ciruelo Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 17:00 Manzanillo Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 17:00 Santiago Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 03:00 La Lima Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 04:00 Las Bocas Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 04:00 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 16:00 Cuyutlan Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 16:00 El Real Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 16:00 Chupadero Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 19:00 Cachoana Mexico  0.1