Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for NORA-21
in Mexico
29 Aug 2021 15 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
  • GDACS NOAA
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone NORA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Glide number: TC-2021-000122-MEX
    Exposed countries Mexico
    Exposed population 1.4 million in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 139 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.7 m (30 Aug 18:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)
    Landfall between
    01 Sep 2021 00:00 - 01 Sep 2021 12:00
    in Mexico

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 120 km/h 0.7 m n.a. 1.5
    Overall 139 km/h 0.7 m n.a. 1.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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    Wind

      120 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 1.3 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 25 Aug 2021 21:00 139 620 thousand No people Mexico
        Green 2 26 Aug 2021 03:00 130 900 thousand No people Mexico
        Green 3 26 Aug 2021 09:00 130 1.9 million No people Mexico
        Green 4 26 Aug 2021 15:00 139 3.9 million No people Mexico
        Orange 5 26 Aug 2021 21:00 139 4 million 640 thousand Mexico
        Orange 6 27 Aug 2021 03:00 139 2.9 million 510 thousand Mexico
        Orange 7 27 Aug 2021 09:00 148 3.1 million 260 thousand Mexico
        Green 8 27 Aug 2021 15:00 139 7.6 million 8 thousand Mexico
        Green 9 27 Aug 2021 21:00 148 4.7 million 40 thousand Mexico
        Orange 10 28 Aug 2021 03:00 130 9.2 million 160 thousand Mexico
        Orange 11 28 Aug 2021 09:00 130 6 million 180 thousand Mexico
        Green 12 28 Aug 2021 15:00 148 8.3 million 20 thousand Mexico
        Orange 13 28 Aug 2021 21:00 139 14.2 million 600 thousand Mexico
        Orange 14 29 Aug 2021 03:00 120 14.4 million 1.1 million Mexico
        Orange 15 29 Aug 2021 09:00 120 14.5 million 1.4 million Mexico
        Orange 16 29 Aug 2021 15:00 120 14.6 million 1.3 million Mexico

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 25 Aug 2021 21:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 11.7, -99.4
          GREEN
          		 2 26 Aug 2021 03:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 11.9, -100.1
          GREEN
          		 3 26 Aug 2021 09:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 12, -100.6
          GREEN
          		 4 26 Aug 2021 15:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 12.5, -100.8
          GREEN
          		 5 26 Aug 2021 21:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 13.4, -101.7
          GREEN
          		 6 27 Aug 2021 03:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 14.1, -102.6
          GREEN
          		 7 27 Aug 2021 09:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 14.6, -103.5
          GREEN
          		 8 27 Aug 2021 15:00 Tropical storm 83 no people 610000 people 15.4, -104.3
          GREEN
          		 9 27 Aug 2021 21:00 Tropical storm 102 no people 1.2 million people 15.5, -104.9
          GREEN
          		 10 28 Aug 2021 03:00 Tropical storm 102 no people 2.2 million people 16.3, -105.1
          GREEN
          		 11 28 Aug 2021 09:00 Category 1 120 no people 1.9 million people 17.1, -105.2
          GREEN
          		 12 28 Aug 2021 15:00 Category 1 130 14000 people 2.8 million people 18.4, -105.4
          ORANGE
          		 13 28 Aug 2021 21:00 Category 1 139 470000 people 8.7 million people 19.7, -105.4 Mexico
          GREEN
          		 14 29 Aug 2021 03:00 Category 1 120 73000 people 2.4 million people 21.3, -105.5
          ORANGE
          		 15 29 Aug 2021 09:00 Category 1 120 640000 people 2.8 million people 22.5, -105.9 Mexico
          ORANGE
          		 16 29 Aug 2021 15:00 Category 1 120 590000 people 2 million people 23.3, -106.4 Mexico
          GREEN
          		 16 30 Aug 2021 00:00 Tropical storm 111 no people 1.9 million people 23.8, -106.9 Mexico
          GREEN
          		 16 30 Aug 2021 12:00 Tropical storm 102 no people 2.1 million people 24.3, -107.5 Mexico
          GREEN
          		 16 31 Aug 2021 00:00 Tropical storm 102 no people 2.3 million people 24.9, -108.2 Mexico
          GREEN
          		 16 31 Aug 2021 12:00 Tropical storm 93 no people 1.5 million people 25.6, -109 Mexico
          GREEN
          		 16 01 Sep 2021 00:00 Tropical storm 93 no people 1.1 million people 26.5, -109.6
          GREEN
          		 16 01 Sep 2021 12:00 Tropical storm 74 no people 1.8 million people 27.5, -110 Mexico
          GREEN
          		 16 02 Sep 2021 12:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 29.5, -111.2 Mexico
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country
          Mexico

          Provinces

          Region Province Country
          Sinaloa Mexico
          Nayarit Mexico
          Jalisco Mexico

          Populated places

          Name Region Province Country City class Population
          Mazatlan Sinaloa Mexico Major city 330000 people
          Villa Unión Sinaloa Mexico City 13000 people
          Escuinapa Sinaloa Mexico City 28000 people
          Punta Mita Nayarit Mexico City -
          Puerto Vallarta Jalisco Mexico City 190000 people

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          General Rafael Buelna International MZT 10 Civ. Paved Yes 8800
          Rancho los Cabras 3 0
          Teacapan 6 0
          San Blas 3 0
          El Llano 12 0
          Lic Gustavo Diaz Ordaz International PVR 6 Civ. Paved Yes 10100
          La Gloria 34 0

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Mazatlan MXMZT Mexico
          San Blas MXSBS Mexico
          Puerto Vallarta MXPVR Mexico
          Ipala Mexico
          El Tabaco Mexico
          Chamela Mexico

          Dams

          Reservoir Dam Name River Year
          Cajon de Peda Tomatlan 1976
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          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

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          StormSurge

          0.7 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.7m in Las Arenitas, Mexico. This height is estimated for 30 Aug 2021 18:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (61 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 16 of 29 Aug 2021 15:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          30 Aug 2021 18:00 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.7
          29 Aug 2021 07:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.7
          29 Aug 2021 08:00 Cuamecate Mexico  0.7
          29 Aug 2021 07:00 El Nuevo Mexico  0.6
          29 Aug 2021 06:00 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.6
          29 Aug 2021 12:00 Caimanero Mexico  0.6
          29 Aug 2021 11:00 Jarilla Mexico  0.6
          29 Aug 2021 04:00 San Blas Mexico  0.6
          31 Aug 2021 13:00 Cachoana Mexico  0.5
          29 Aug 2021 11:00 La Puerta Mexico  0.5
          30 Aug 2021 18:00 El Castillo Mexico  0.5
          29 Aug 2021 13:00 La Palmita Mexico  0.5
          29 Aug 2021 15:00 Mazatlan Mexico  0.5
          29 Aug 2021 17:00 Florida Mexico  0.5
          31 Aug 2021 06:00 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.5
          29 Aug 2021 09:00 Cuantla Mexico  0.4
          29 Aug 2021 10:00 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.4
          29 Aug 2021 14:00 Barron Mexico  0.4
          29 Aug 2021 18:00 Marmol Mexico  0.4
          30 Aug 2021 12:00 La Boca Mexico  0.4
          30 Aug 2021 21:00 Altata Mexico  0.4
          29 Aug 2021 09:00 Novillero Mexico  0.4
          30 Aug 2021 02:00 Perihuete Mexico  0.4
          31 Aug 2021 07:00 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.4
          31 Aug 2021 14:00 Topolobampo Mexico  0.4
          29 Aug 2021 01:00 Cruz de Juanacaxtle Mexico  0.4
          30 Aug 2021 00:00 Dimas Mexico  0.4
          01 Sep 2021 07:00 Borabampo Mexico  0.4
          01 Sep 2021 09:00 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.4
          28 Aug 2021 21:00 Chola Mexico  0.4
          29 Aug 2021 01:00 Punta Mita Mexico  0.3
          29 Aug 2021 04:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.3
          31 Aug 2021 19:00 El Aquajito Mexico  0.3
          29 Aug 2021 02:00 San Francisco Mexico  0.3
          29 Aug 2021 02:00 Monteon Mexico  0.3
          28 Aug 2021 23:00 Ipala Mexico  0.2
          28 Aug 2021 20:00 Chamela Mexico  0.2
          28 Aug 2021 23:00 Aquiles Serdan Mexico  0.2
          01 Sep 2021 01:00 Las Bocas Mexico  0.2
          01 Sep 2021 01:00 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.2
          01 Sep 2021 21:00 Guasimas Mexico  0.2
          29 Aug 2021 00:00 Corrales Mexico  0.2
          01 Sep 2021 10:00 Atanacio Mexico  0.2
          01 Sep 2021 16:00 Liliba Mexico  0.2
          28 Aug 2021 19:00 Cuitzmala Mexico  0.2
          01 Sep 2021 14:00 Aguaje Mexico  0.2
          28 Aug 2021 19:00 La Manzanilla Mexico  0.1
          01 Sep 2021 11:00 San Jose Mexico  0.1
          01 Sep 2021 14:00 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.1
          29 Aug 2021 00:00 Pizota Mexico  0.1
          29 Aug 2021 01:00 Puerto Vallarta Mexico  0.1
          28 Aug 2021 17:00 Estrecho Mexico  0.1
          28 Aug 2021 18:00 Barra de Navidad Mexico  0.1
          26 Aug 2021 23:00 Cachimba Mexico  0.1
          28 Aug 2021 17:00 Manzanillo Mexico  0.1
          28 Aug 2021 17:00 Santiago Mexico  0.1
          29 Aug 2021 03:00 La Lima Mexico  0.1
          28 Aug 2021 16:00 El Ciruelo Mexico  0.1
          28 Aug 2021 16:00 Cuyutlan Mexico  0.1
          28 Aug 2021 16:00 El Real Mexico  0.1
          28 Aug 2021 16:00 Chupadero Mexico  0.1