Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for NORA-21
in Mexico

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NORA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS
Glide number: TC-2021-000122-MEX
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population 1.4 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 139 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.7 m (30 Aug 18:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)
Landfall between
01 Sep 2021 00:00 - 01 Sep 2021 12:00

in Mexico

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 120 km/h 0.6 m n.a. 1.5
GDACS Overall 139 km/h 0.7 m n.a. 1.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

120 km/h Current Max.

Up to 1.3 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm or higher
Population in
Cat 1. or higher
Countries
Green 1 25 Aug 2021 21:00 139 620 thousand No people Mexico
Green 2 26 Aug 2021 03:00 130 900 thousand No people Mexico
Green 3 26 Aug 2021 09:00 130 1.9 million No people Mexico
Green 4 26 Aug 2021 15:00 139 3.9 million No people Mexico
Orange 5 26 Aug 2021 21:00 139 4 million 640 thousand Mexico
Orange 6 27 Aug 2021 03:00 139 2.9 million 510 thousand Mexico
Orange 7 27 Aug 2021 09:00 148 3.1 million 260 thousand Mexico
Green 8 27 Aug 2021 15:00 139 7.6 million 8 thousand Mexico
Green 9 27 Aug 2021 21:00 148 4.7 million 40 thousand Mexico
Orange 10 28 Aug 2021 03:00 130 9.2 million 160 thousand Mexico
Orange 11 28 Aug 2021 09:00 130 6 million 180 thousand Mexico
Green 12 28 Aug 2021 15:00 148 8.3 million 20 thousand Mexico
Orange 13 28 Aug 2021 21:00 139 14.2 million 600 thousand Mexico
Orange 14 29 Aug 2021 03:00 120 14.4 million 1.1 million Mexico
Orange 15 29 Aug 2021 09:00 120 14.5 million 1.4 million Mexico
Orange 16 29 Aug 2021 15:00 120 14.6 million 1.3 million Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 25 Aug 2021 21:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 11.7, -99.4
GREEN
2 26 Aug 2021 03:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 11.9, -100.1
GREEN
3 26 Aug 2021 09:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 12, -100.6
GREEN
4 26 Aug 2021 15:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 12.5, -100.8
GREEN
5 26 Aug 2021 21:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 13.4, -101.7
GREEN
6 27 Aug 2021 03:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 14.1, -102.6
GREEN
7 27 Aug 2021 09:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 14.6, -103.5
GREEN
8 27 Aug 2021 15:00 Tropical storm 83 600000 people no people 15.4, -104.3
GREEN
9 27 Aug 2021 21:00 Tropical storm 102 1.2 million people no people 15.5, -104.9
GREEN
10 28 Aug 2021 03:00 Tropical storm 102 2.2 million people no people 16.3, -105.1
GREEN
11 28 Aug 2021 09:00 Category 1 120 1.9 million people no people 17.1, -105.2
GREEN
12 28 Aug 2021 15:00 Category 1 130 2.8 million people 13000 people 18.4, -105.4
ORANGE
13 28 Aug 2021 21:00 Category 1 139 8.6 million people 470000 people 19.7, -105.4 Mexico
GREEN
14 29 Aug 2021 03:00 Category 1 120 2.3 million people 72000 people 21.3, -105.5
ORANGE
15 29 Aug 2021 09:00 Category 1 120 2.8 million people 640000 people 22.5, -105.9 Mexico
ORANGE
16 29 Aug 2021 15:00 Category 1 120 2 million people 590000 people 23.3, -106.4 Mexico
GREEN
16 30 Aug 2021 00:00 Tropical storm 111 1.9 million people no people 23.8, -106.9 Mexico
GREEN
16 30 Aug 2021 12:00 Tropical storm 102 2 million people no people 24.3, -107.5 Mexico
GREEN
16 31 Aug 2021 00:00 Tropical storm 102 2.2 million people no people 24.9, -108.2 Mexico
GREEN
16 31 Aug 2021 12:00 Tropical storm 93 1.4 million people no people 25.6, -109 Mexico
GREEN
16 01 Sep 2021 00:00 Tropical storm 93 1 million people no people 26.5, -109.6
GREEN
16 01 Sep 2021 12:00 Tropical storm 74 1.8 million people no people 27.5, -110 Mexico
GREEN
16 02 Sep 2021 12:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 29.5, -111.2 Mexico
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
Download:



Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Mexico

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Sinaloa Mexico 2.3 million people
Nayarit Mexico 890000 people
Jalisco Mexico 5.7 million people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population
Mazatlan Sinaloa Mexico Major city 330000 people
Villa Unión Sinaloa Mexico City 13000 people
Escuinapa Sinaloa Mexico City 28000 people
Punta Mita Nayarit Mexico City -
Puerto Vallarta Jalisco Mexico City 180000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
General Rafael Buelna International MZT 10 Civ. Paved Yes 8800
Rancho los Cabras 3 0
Teacapan 6 0
San Blas 3 0
El Llano 12 0
Lic Gustavo Diaz Ordaz International PVR 6 Civ. Paved Yes 10100
La Gloria 34 0

Ports

Name LOCODE Country
Mazatlan MXMZT Mexico
San Blas MXSBS Mexico
Puerto Vallarta MXPVR Mexico
Ipala Mexico
El Tabaco Mexico
Chamela Mexico

Dams

Reservoir Dam Name River Year
Cajon de Peda Tomatlan 1976

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.7 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.7m in Santa Cruz, Mexico. This height is estimated for 29 Aug 2021 07:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (51 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 18 of 30 Aug 2021 03:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

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