Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for NORA-21
in Mexico
27 Aug 2021 15 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
  • GDACS NOAA
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone NORA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Glide number: TC-2021-000122-MEX
    Exposed countries Mexico
    Exposed population 1.4 million in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 139 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (31 Aug 15:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)
    Landfall between
    31 Aug 2021 12:00 - 01 Sep 2021 12:00
    in Mexico

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 139 km/h 0.3 m n.a. 0.5
    Overall 139 km/h 0.3 m n.a. 0.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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    Wind

      139 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 8200 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 25 Aug 2021 21:00 139 620 thousand No people Mexico
        Green 2 26 Aug 2021 03:00 130 900 thousand No people Mexico
        Green 3 26 Aug 2021 09:00 130 1.9 million No people Mexico
        Green 4 26 Aug 2021 15:00 139 3.9 million No people Mexico
        Orange 5 26 Aug 2021 21:00 139 4 million 640 thousand Mexico
        Orange 6 27 Aug 2021 03:00 139 2.9 million 510 thousand Mexico
        Orange 7 27 Aug 2021 09:00 148 3.1 million 260 thousand Mexico
        Green 8 27 Aug 2021 15:00 139 7.6 million 8 thousand Mexico

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 25 Aug 2021 21:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 11.7, -99.4
          GREEN
          		 2 26 Aug 2021 03:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 11.9, -100.1
          GREEN
          		 3 26 Aug 2021 09:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 12, -100.6
          GREEN
          		 4 26 Aug 2021 15:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 12.5, -100.8
          GREEN
          		 5 26 Aug 2021 21:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 13.4, -101.7
          GREEN
          		 6 27 Aug 2021 03:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 14.1, -102.6
          GREEN
          		 7 27 Aug 2021 09:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 14.6, -103.5
          GREEN
          		 8 27 Aug 2021 15:00 Tropical storm 83 610000 people no people 15.4, -104.3
          GREEN
          		 8 28 Aug 2021 00:00 Tropical storm 93 530000 people no people 16.3, -105.2
          GREEN
          		 8 28 Aug 2021 12:00 Tropical storm 111 1.3 million people no people 17.9, -105.9
          GREEN
          		 8 29 Aug 2021 00:00 Category 1 120 2.3 million people no people 19.9, -106.5
          GREEN
          		 8 29 Aug 2021 12:00 Category 1 130 1.6 million people no people 21.7, -107.4
          GREEN
          		 8 30 Aug 2021 00:00 Category 1 139 3 million people no people 23.1, -108.3
          GREEN
          		 8 30 Aug 2021 12:00 Category 1 139 2.6 million people <1000 people 24.2, -109.1
          GREEN
          		 8 31 Aug 2021 12:00 Category 1 120 2 million people 8400 people 26.1, -110.7
          GREEN
          		 8 01 Sep 2021 12:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 28.4, -111.7 Mexico
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country
          Mexico

          Provinces

          Region Province Country Population
          Baja California Sur Mexico 350000 people
          Sonora Mexico 2 million people

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

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          StormSurge

          0.3 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Topolobampo, Mexico. This height is estimated for 31 Aug 2021 15:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (51 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 8 of 27 Aug 2021 15:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          31 Aug 2021 15:00 Topolobampo Mexico  0.3
          30 Aug 2021 11:00 El Castillo Mexico  0.2
          31 Aug 2021 14:00 Las Bocas Mexico  0.2
          30 Aug 2021 12:00 Altata Mexico  0.2
          31 Aug 2021 09:00 Cachoana Mexico  0.2
          30 Aug 2021 17:00 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.2
          29 Aug 2021 11:00 Cuantla Mexico  0.2
          30 Aug 2021 18:00 La Paz Mexico  0.2
          27 Aug 2021 08:00 Huajapan Mexico  0.2
          30 Aug 2021 00:00 Cuamecate Mexico  0.1
          29 Aug 2021 17:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
          30 Aug 2021 00:00 La Palmita Mexico  0.1
          29 Aug 2021 23:00 Caimanero Mexico  0.1
          29 Aug 2021 23:00 Jarilla Mexico  0.1
          30 Aug 2021 00:00 La Puerta Mexico  0.1
          30 Aug 2021 22:00 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.1
          31 Aug 2021 11:00 El Aquajito Mexico  0.1
          31 Aug 2021 15:00 San Jose Mexico  0.1
          31 Aug 2021 15:00 Atanacio Mexico  0.1
          27 Aug 2021 08:00 El Roble Mexico  0.1
          31 Aug 2021 05:00 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.1
          31 Aug 2021 00:00 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.1
          31 Aug 2021 14:00 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.1
          31 Aug 2021 10:00 El Guatamota Mexico  0.1
          30 Aug 2021 00:00 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.1
          30 Aug 2021 00:00 El Nuevo Mexico  0.1
          30 Aug 2021 04:00 Dimas Mexico  0.1
          30 Aug 2021 11:00 La Boca Mexico  0.1
          31 Aug 2021 12:00 Tripui Mexico  0.1
          30 Aug 2021 06:00 Perihuete Mexico  0.1
          30 Aug 2021 17:00 Datilito Mexico  0.1
          30 Aug 2021 19:00 Rosario Mexico  0.1
          30 Aug 2021 18:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
          31 Aug 2021 12:00 Loreto Mexico  0.1
          31 Aug 2021 12:00 Ligui Mexico  0.1
          31 Aug 2021 06:00 Los Burros Mexico  0.1
          31 Aug 2021 15:00 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
          31 Aug 2021 13:00 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
          27 Aug 2021 09:00 Cachimba Mexico  0.1
          31 Aug 2021 12:00 La Florida Mexico  0.1
          30 Aug 2021 00:00 Novillero Mexico  0.1
          29 Aug 2021 21:00 Mazatlan Mexico  0.1
          29 Aug 2021 21:00 Barron Mexico  0.1
          30 Aug 2021 00:00 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.1
          30 Aug 2021 09:00 Punta Arena Mexico  0.1
          30 Aug 2021 09:00 Los Tesos Mexico  0.1
          30 Aug 2021 10:00 La Ribera Mexico  0.1
          30 Aug 2021 10:00 Punta Colorada Mexico  0.1
          31 Aug 2021 08:00 San Cosme Mexico  0.1
          31 Aug 2021 07:00 Santa Marta Mexico  0.1
          30 Aug 2021 02:00 Marmol Mexico  0.1