Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for OLAF-21
in Mexico

Impact

Tropical Cyclone OLAF-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS
Glide number: TC-2021-000122-MEX
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population 310 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 157 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (10 Sep 18:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)
Landfall between
09 Sep 2021 21:00 - 10 Sep 2021 03:00

in Mexico

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 56 km/h 0.0 m n.a. 0.5
GDACS Overall 157 km/h 0.4 m n.a. 1.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

56 km/h Current Max.

Up to 620000 people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm or higher
Population in
Cat 1. or higher
Countries
Green 1 07 Sep 2021 21:00 120 No people No people
Green 2 08 Sep 2021 03:00 120 80 thousand No people Mexico
Green 3 08 Sep 2021 09:00 120 70 thousand No people Mexico
Green 4 08 Sep 2021 15:00 111 No people No people
Green 5 08 Sep 2021 21:00 111 120 thousand No people Mexico
Green 6 09 Sep 2021 03:00 111 280 thousand No people Mexico
Green 7 09 Sep 2021 09:00 130 320 thousand No people Mexico
Orange 8 09 Sep 2021 15:00 139 580 thousand 240 thousand Mexico
Orange 9 09 Sep 2021 21:00 157 640 thousand 300 thousand Mexico
Orange 10 10 Sep 2021 03:00 157 650 thousand 580 thousand Mexico
Green 11 10 Sep 2021 09:00 139 630 thousand 310 thousand Mexico
Green 12 10 Sep 2021 15:00 111 620 thousand 310 thousand Mexico
Green 13 10 Sep 2021 21:00 74 620 thousand 310 thousand Mexico
Green 14 11 Sep 2021 03:00 56 620 thousand 310 thousand Mexico
Green 15 11 Sep 2021 09:00 56 620 thousand 310 thousand Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 07 Sep 2021 21:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 18.2, -107.9
GREEN
2 08 Sep 2021 03:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 18.2, -107.4
GREEN
3 08 Sep 2021 09:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 18.5, -107.1
GREEN
4 08 Sep 2021 15:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 18.9, -107.5
GREEN
5 08 Sep 2021 21:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 19.4, -107.7
GREEN
6 09 Sep 2021 03:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 20, -108
GREEN
7 09 Sep 2021 09:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 20.5, -108
GREEN
8 09 Sep 2021 15:00 Category 1 120 290000 people no people 21.2, -108.3
ORANGE
9 09 Sep 2021 21:00 Category 1 148 560000 people 290000 people 22.2, -108.9
ORANGE
10 10 Sep 2021 03:00 Category 2 157 580000 people 560000 people 23, -109.6 Mexico
GREEN
11 10 Sep 2021 09:00 Category 1 139 620000 people 5600 people 23.7, -110.7 Mexico
GREEN
12 10 Sep 2021 15:00 Tropical storm 111 300000 people no people 24.1, -111.3 Mexico
GREEN
13 10 Sep 2021 21:00 Tropical storm 74 1800 people no people 24.6, -112.7
GREEN
14 11 Sep 2021 03:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 24.7, -113.3
GREEN
15 11 Sep 2021 09:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 24.4, -114
GREEN
15 11 Sep 2021 18:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 24.2, -114.6
GREEN
15 12 Sep 2021 06:00 Tropical depression 37 no people no people 23.7, -115.6
GREEN
15 12 Sep 2021 18:00 Tropical depression 37 no people no people 22.8, -116.9
GREEN
15 13 Sep 2021 06:00 Tropical depression 28 no people no people 21.5, -118.2
GREEN
15 13 Sep 2021 18:00 Tropical depression 28 no people no people 20.6, -119.4
GREEN
15 14 Sep 2021 06:00 Tropical depression 28 no people no people 20.1, -120.3
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
Download:



Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Mexico

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Baja California Sur Mexico 340000 people
Nayarit Mexico 890000 people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population
Villa Constitución Baja California Sur Mexico City -
La Paz Baja California Sur Mexico Major city 170000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
Villa Constitucion VIB 43 0
Arroyo Capo 20 0
Leon LAP 21 Civ. Paved Yes 8200
La Paz 26 0
Punta Pescadero 7 0
Cabo San Lucas 139 0
Los Cabos International SJD 109 Civ. Paved Yes 9800
Punta Colorada PCO unknown 0

Ports

Name LOCODE Country
Puerto Madalena Mexico
San Carlos MXSCR Mexico
San Juan de la Costa MXSJC Mexico
La Paz Mexico
Buenavista Mexico
San Lucas Mexico
San Hose Del Cabo Mexico

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.4m in Puerto Cortes, Mexico. This height is estimated for 10 Sep 2021 18:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (34 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 13 of 10 Sep 2021 21:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
10 Sep 2021 18:00 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.4
10 Sep 2021 03:00 San Jose del Cabo Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 09:00 Los Inocentes Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 03:00 La Fortuna Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 07:00 Todos Santos Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 17:00 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 11:00 Cunano Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 06:00 El Pescadero Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 11:00 Agua Fresca Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 12:00 El Tomale Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 14:00 Rancho Conejo Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 17:00 Quinones Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 16:00 Rancho Datilari Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 04:00 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 03:00 El Tule Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 05:00 La Tinaja Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 19:00 Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 19:00 El Guatamota Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 03:00 Los Frailes Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 04:00 San Lucas Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 05:00 Pozo de Cota Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 21:00 San Carlos Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 12:00 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 03:00 Los Tesos Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 19:00 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 22:00 El Castillo Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 22:00 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 08:00 Datilito Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 03:00 Punta Arena Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 03:00 La Ribera Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 03:00 Punta Colorada Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 22:00 La Puerta Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 22:00 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 22:00 Altata Mexico  0.1