Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for OLAF-21
in Mexico

Impact

Tropical Cyclone OLAF-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS
Glide number: TC-2021-000122-MEX
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population 310 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 157 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (10 Sep 09:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
Current 130 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 0.5
Overall 157 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

Wind

130 km/h Current Max.

Up to no people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm or higher
Population in
Cat 1. or higher
Countries
Green 1 07 Sep 2021 21:00 120 No people No people
Green 2 08 Sep 2021 03:00 120 80 thousand No people Mexico
Green 3 08 Sep 2021 09:00 120 70 thousand No people Mexico
Green 4 08 Sep 2021 15:00 111 No people No people
Green 5 08 Sep 2021 21:00 111 120 thousand No people Mexico
Green 6 09 Sep 2021 03:00 111 280 thousand No people Mexico
Green 7 09 Sep 2021 09:00 130 320 thousand No people Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category
(SSHS)
Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Population in
Tropical Storm
or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 07 Sep 2021 21:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 18.2, -107.9
GREEN
2 08 Sep 2021 03:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 18.2, -107.4
GREEN
3 08 Sep 2021 09:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 18.5, -107.1
GREEN
4 08 Sep 2021 15:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 18.9, -107.5
GREEN
5 08 Sep 2021 21:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 19.4, -107.7
GREEN
6 09 Sep 2021 03:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 20, -108
GREEN
7 09 Sep 2021 09:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 20.5, -108
GREEN
7 09 Sep 2021 18:00 Category 1 120 no people 310000 people 21.4, -108.6
GREEN
7 10 Sep 2021 06:00 Category 1 130 no people 320000 people 22.6, -110
GREEN
7 10 Sep 2021 18:00 Category 1 120 no people 3500 people 23.5, -111.7
GREEN
7 11 Sep 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 23.7, -113.2
GREEN
7 11 Sep 2021 18:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 23.5, -114.5
GREEN
7 12 Sep 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 23.1, -115.7
GREEN
7 13 Sep 2021 06:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 22.1, -118.5
GREEN
7 14 Sep 2021 06:00 Tropical depression 37 no people no people 21.3, -121.7
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
Download:



Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Mexico

Provinces

Region Province Country
Baja California Sur Mexico

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in La Tinaja, Mexico. This height is estimated for 10 Sep 2021 09:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (9 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 7 of 09 Sep 2021 09:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
10 Sep 2021 09:00 La Tinaja Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 07:00 San Jose del Cabo Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 06:00 San Lucas Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 10:00 El Pescadero Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 11:00 Todos Santos Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 06:00 El Tule Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 08:00 Pozo de Cota Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 20:00 Quinones Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 22:00 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.1