Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for PAMELA-21
in Mexico
13 Oct 2021 15 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
  • GDACS NOAA
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone PAMELA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Glide number: CE-2021-000162-SOM
    Exposed countries Mexico
    Exposed population 130 thousand in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 130 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (13 Oct 12:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)
    Landfall between
    13 Oct 2021 09:00 - 13 Oct 2021 15:00
    in Mexico

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 102 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 0.5
    Overall 130 km/h 0.5 m n.a. 1.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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    Wind

      102 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 5.3 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Orange 1 10 Oct 2021 09:00 176 2.5 million 230 thousand Mexico
        Orange 2 10 Oct 2021 15:00 176 2.6 million 230 thousand Mexico
        Orange 3 10 Oct 2021 21:00 176 3 million 360 thousand Mexico
        Red 4 11 Oct 2021 03:00 185 2.9 million 250 thousand Mexico
        Orange 5 11 Oct 2021 09:00 185 5 million 200 thousand Mexico
        Red 6 11 Oct 2021 15:00 194 4.4 million 160 thousand Mexico
        Red 7 11 Oct 2021 21:00 185 5.8 million 490 thousand Mexico
        Orange 8 12 Oct 2021 03:00 176 5.8 million 740 thousand Mexico
        Orange 9 12 Oct 2021 09:00 167 4.2 million 240 thousand Mexico
        Green 10 12 Oct 2021 15:00 157 4.6 million 120 thousand Mexico
        Orange 11 12 Oct 2021 21:00 139 5.8 million 100 thousand Mexico
        Orange 12 13 Oct 2021 03:00 130 4.9 million 170 thousand Mexico
        Orange 13 13 Oct 2021 09:00 120 5.3 million 540 thousand Mexico
        Green 14 13 Oct 2021 15:00 102 5.3 million 130 thousand Mexico

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 10 Oct 2021 09:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 14.3, -102.9
          GREEN
          		 2 10 Oct 2021 15:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 14.8, -104.7
          GREEN
          		 3 10 Oct 2021 21:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 15.5, -105.9
          GREEN
          		 4 11 Oct 2021 03:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 15.9, -106.8
          GREEN
          		 5 11 Oct 2021 09:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 16.2, -107.6
          GREEN
          		 6 11 Oct 2021 15:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 16.8, -108.1
          GREEN
          		 7 11 Oct 2021 21:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 17.2, -108.5
          GREEN
          		 8 12 Oct 2021 03:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 17.9, -108.9
          GREEN
          		 9 12 Oct 2021 09:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 19.2, -108.9
          GREEN
          		 10 12 Oct 2021 15:00 Category 1 130 no people no people 20.4, -108.9
          GREEN
          		 11 12 Oct 2021 21:00 Tropical storm 111 no people 1 million people 21, -109.3
          GREEN
          		 12 13 Oct 2021 03:00 Tropical storm 111 58000 people 2.4 million people 21.9, -108.7
          ORANGE
          		 13 13 Oct 2021 09:00 Category 1 120 540000 people 3 million people 22.8, -107.6
          GREEN
          		 14 13 Oct 2021 15:00 Tropical storm 102 no people 4.9 million people 24.4, -106 Mexico
          GREEN
          		 14 14 Oct 2021 00:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 26.6, -102.7 Mexico
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country
          Mexico

          Provinces

          Region Province Country
          Durango Mexico
          Sinaloa Mexico
          Chihuahua Mexico
          Nayarit Mexico
          Zacatecas Mexico
          Coahuila Mexico
          Baja California Sur Mexico

          Populated places

          Name Region Province Country City class Population
          Villa Unión Sinaloa Mexico City 13000 people
          El Dorado Sinaloa Mexico City -
          Mazatlan Sinaloa Mexico Major city 330000 people
          Durango Durango Mexico Major city 450000 people
          Culiacán Sinaloa Mexico Major city 540000 people
          Escuinapa Sinaloa Mexico City 28000 people
          Acaponeta Nayarit Mexico City 18000 people
          Tecuala Nayarit Mexico City 15000 people
          Miguel Auza Durango Mexico City 13000 people
          Juan Aldama Zacatecas Mexico City 14000 people
          Ciudad Lerdo Durango Mexico City -
          Gómez Palacio Durango Mexico City 210000 people
          Torreón Coahuila de Zaragoza Mexico City 600000 people
          Matamoros Coahuila de Zaragoza Mexico City 46000 people
          San Pedro Coahuila de Zaragoza Mexico City -

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          Cosala 76 0
          Rancho El Durangueno 2500 0
          General Rafael Buelna International MZT 10 Civ. Paved Yes 8800
          Guadalupe Victoria DGO 1857 Civ. Paved Yes 9500
          Fedl de Bachigualato CUL 33 Civ. Paved Yes 7500
          Campo Gobierno 13 0
          Abasolo 1408 0
          Rancho los Cabras 3 0
          Teacapan 6 0
          La Candelaria del Alto 1940 0
          Acaponeta 84 0
          Sombrerete 2345 0
          J Agustin Castro 1154 0
          Torreon International TRC 1130 Civ. Paved Yes 9000
          Isla Maria Madre 5 0
          Punta Colorada PCO unknown 0
          Laguna del Rey 1052 0
          Casa Madero 1372 0
          Los Cabos International SJD 109 Civ. Paved Yes 9800
          Cabo San Lucas 139 0
          Cuatro Cienegas New 747 0

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Mazatlan MXMZT Mexico
          Altata Mexico
          San Hose Del Cabo Mexico
          San Lucas Mexico

          Dams

          Reservoir Dam Name River Year
          El Salto Elota 1985
          Presidente Jose L. Portillo San Lorenzo 1981
          Presa Juan Guerrero Juan Guerrero El Bledal 1994
          Sinaloa Tamazula 1948
          Presa Guadalupe Victoria Tunal 1962
          Presa Pena del Aguila LaSauceda 1955
          Presidente Adolfo Lopez Mateos Humaya 1964
          Lazaro Cardenas Nazas 1947
          G. Franci Poanas 1968
          Francisco Zarco Nazas 1969
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          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

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          StormSurge

          0.5 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.5m in Marmol, Mexico. This height is estimated for 13 Oct 2021 12:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (20 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 14 of 13 Oct 2021 15:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          13 Oct 2021 12:00 Marmol Mexico  0.5
          13 Oct 2021 12:00 Florida Mexico  0.4
          13 Oct 2021 12:00 Dimas Mexico  0.4
          13 Oct 2021 12:00 Mazatlan Mexico  0.3
          13 Oct 2021 12:00 Caimanero Mexico  0.3
          13 Oct 2021 12:00 Jarilla Mexico  0.3
          13 Oct 2021 12:00 La Puerta Mexico  0.2
          13 Oct 2021 13:00 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.2
          13 Oct 2021 14:00 Cuantla Mexico  0.2
          13 Oct 2021 12:00 Cuamecate Mexico  0.2
          13 Oct 2021 13:00 Novillero Mexico  0.2
          13 Oct 2021 12:00 La Palmita Mexico  0.2
          13 Oct 2021 13:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
          13 Oct 2021 13:00 Perihuete Mexico  0.2
          13 Oct 2021 13:00 El Nuevo Mexico  0.2
          13 Oct 2021 12:00 Barron Mexico  0.2
          13 Oct 2021 15:00 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.2
          13 Oct 2021 10:00 El Castillo Mexico  0.1
          13 Oct 2021 15:00 San Blas Mexico  0.1
          13 Oct 2021 15:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1