Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for PAMELA-21
in Mexico

Impact

Tropical Cyclone PAMELA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS
Glide number: CE-2021-000162-SOM
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population 130 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 130 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (13 Oct 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)
Landfall between
13 Oct 2021 09:00 - 13 Oct 2021 15:00

in Mexico

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 46 km/h 0.0 m n.a. 0.5
GDACS Overall 130 km/h 0.5 m n.a. 1.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

46 km/h Current Max.

Up to 5.1 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm or higher
Population in
Cat 1. or higher
Countries
Orange 1 10 Oct 2021 09:00 176 2.5 million 230 thousand Mexico
Orange 2 10 Oct 2021 15:00 176 2.6 million 230 thousand Mexico
Orange 3 10 Oct 2021 21:00 176 3 million 360 thousand Mexico
Red 4 11 Oct 2021 03:00 185 2.9 million 250 thousand Mexico
Orange 5 11 Oct 2021 09:00 185 5 million 200 thousand Mexico
Red 6 11 Oct 2021 15:00 194 4.4 million 160 thousand Mexico
Red 7 11 Oct 2021 21:00 185 5.8 million 490 thousand Mexico
Orange 8 12 Oct 2021 03:00 176 5.8 million 740 thousand Mexico
Orange 9 12 Oct 2021 09:00 167 4.2 million 240 thousand Mexico
Green 10 12 Oct 2021 15:00 157 4.6 million 120 thousand Mexico
Orange 11 12 Oct 2021 21:00 139 5.8 million 100 thousand Mexico
Orange 12 13 Oct 2021 03:00 130 4.9 million 170 thousand Mexico
Orange 13 13 Oct 2021 09:00 120 5.3 million 540 thousand Mexico
Green 14 13 Oct 2021 15:00 102 5.3 million 130 thousand Mexico
Green 15 13 Oct 2021 21:00 56 5.2 million 130 thousand Mexico
Green 16 14 Oct 2021 03:00 46 5.2 million 130 thousand Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 10 Oct 2021 09:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 14.3, -102.9
GREEN
2 10 Oct 2021 15:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 14.8, -104.7
GREEN
3 10 Oct 2021 21:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 15.5, -105.9
GREEN
4 11 Oct 2021 03:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 15.9, -106.8
GREEN
5 11 Oct 2021 09:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 16.2, -107.6
GREEN
6 11 Oct 2021 15:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 16.8, -108.1
GREEN
7 11 Oct 2021 21:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 17.2, -108.5
GREEN
8 12 Oct 2021 03:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 17.9, -108.9
GREEN
9 12 Oct 2021 09:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 19.2, -108.9
GREEN
10 12 Oct 2021 15:00 Category 1 130 no people no people 20.4, -108.9
GREEN
11 12 Oct 2021 21:00 Tropical storm 111 1 million people no people 21, -109.3
GREEN
12 13 Oct 2021 03:00 Tropical storm 111 2.4 million people 58000 people 21.9, -108.7
ORANGE
13 13 Oct 2021 09:00 Category 1 120 2.9 million people 540000 people 22.8, -107.6
GREEN
14 13 Oct 2021 15:00 Tropical storm 102 4.9 million people no people 24.4, -106 Mexico
GREEN
15 13 Oct 2021 21:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 26, -103.7 Mexico
GREEN
16 14 Oct 2021 03:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 27.5, -101.5 Mexico
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
Download:



Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Mexico

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Coahuila Mexico 2.1 million people
Durango Mexico 1.4 million people
Chihuahua Mexico 2.6 million people
Zacatecas Mexico 1.3 million people
Sinaloa Mexico 2.3 million people
Nayarit Mexico 890000 people
Baja California Sur Mexico 340000 people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population
San Pedro Coahuila de Zaragoza Mexico City -
Matamoros Coahuila de Zaragoza Mexico City 45000 people
Torreón Coahuila de Zaragoza Mexico City 590000 people
Gómez Palacio Durango Mexico City 210000 people
Ciudad Lerdo Durango Mexico City -
Miguel Auza Durango Mexico City 12000 people
Durango Durango Mexico Major city 440000 people
Culiacán Sinaloa Mexico Major city 540000 people
Villa Unión Sinaloa Mexico City 13000 people
Acaponeta Nayarit Mexico City 18000 people
Escuinapa Sinaloa Mexico City 28000 people
El Dorado Sinaloa Mexico City -
Mazatlan Sinaloa Mexico Major city 330000 people
Tecuala Nayarit Mexico City 14000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
Laguna del Rey 1052 0
Torreon International TRC 1130 Civ. Paved Yes 9000
J Agustin Castro 1154 0
Abasolo 1408 0
Rancho El Durangueno 2500 0
Guadalupe Victoria DGO 1857 Civ. Paved Yes 9500
La Candelaria del Alto 1940 0
Cosala 76 0
Fedl de Bachigualato CUL 33 Civ. Paved Yes 7500
General Rafael Buelna International MZT 10 Civ. Paved Yes 8800
Acaponeta 84 0
Campo Gobierno 13 0
Rancho los Cabras 3 0
Teacapan 6 0
Isla Maria Madre 5 0
Punta Colorada PCO unknown 0
Los Cabos International SJD 109 Civ. Paved Yes 9800
Cabo San Lucas 139 0

Ports

Name LOCODE Country
Mazatlan MXMZT Mexico
Altata Mexico
San Hose Del Cabo Mexico
San Lucas Mexico

Dams

Reservoir Dam Name River Year
Francisco Zarco Nazas 1969
Lazaro Cardenas Nazas 1947
G. Franci Poanas 1968
Presa Pena del Aguila LaSauceda 1955
Presa Guadalupe Victoria Tunal 1962
Presidente Jose L. Portillo San Lorenzo 1981
Presa Juan Guerrero Juan Guerrero El Bledal 1994
Sinaloa Tamazula 1948
El Salto Elota 1985
Presidente Adolfo Lopez Mateos Humaya 1964

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.5m in Marmol, Mexico. This height is estimated for 13 Oct 2021 12:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (20 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 14 of 13 Oct 2021 15:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
13 Oct 2021 12:00 Marmol Mexico  0.5
13 Oct 2021 12:00 Florida Mexico  0.4
13 Oct 2021 12:00 Dimas Mexico  0.4
13 Oct 2021 12:00 Mazatlan Mexico  0.3
13 Oct 2021 12:00 Caimanero Mexico  0.3
13 Oct 2021 12:00 Jarilla Mexico  0.3
13 Oct 2021 12:00 La Puerta Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 13:00 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 14:00 Cuantla Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 12:00 Cuamecate Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 13:00 Novillero Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 12:00 La Palmita Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 13:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 13:00 Perihuete Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 13:00 El Nuevo Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 12:00 Barron Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 15:00 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 10:00 El Castillo Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:00 San Blas Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1