Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for RICK-21
in Mexico
26 Oct 2021 03 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
  • GDACS NOAA
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone RICK-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Glide number: FL-2021-000166-VNM
    Exposed countries Mexico
    Exposed population 740 thousand in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 167 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (25 Oct 10:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)
    Landfall between
    25 Oct 2021 09:00 - 25 Oct 2021 15:00
    in Mexico

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 37 km/h 0.5 m n.a. 0.5
    Overall 167 km/h 0.5 m n.a. 1.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

    TOP

    Wind

      37 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 3.2 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Orange 1 22 Oct 2021 15:00 139 2 million 560 thousand Mexico
        Orange 2 22 Oct 2021 21:00 120 9 million 2.8 million Mexico
        Orange 3 23 Oct 2021 03:00 148 9.3 million 520 thousand Mexico
        Orange 4 23 Oct 2021 09:00 185 8.9 million 870 thousand Mexico
        Red 5 23 Oct 2021 15:00 194 11 million 340 thousand Mexico
        Orange 6 23 Oct 2021 21:00 157 8.9 million 250 thousand Mexico
        Red 7 24 Oct 2021 03:00 185 9.4 million 250 thousand Mexico
        Orange 8 24 Oct 2021 09:00 157 6.3 million 210 thousand Mexico
        Orange 9 24 Oct 2021 15:00 167 2.4 million 250 thousand Mexico
        Orange 10 24 Oct 2021 21:00 148 1.7 million 200 thousand Mexico
        Orange 11 25 Oct 2021 03:00 157 2 million 300 thousand Mexico
        Orange 12 25 Oct 2021 09:00 167 2.7 million 310 thousand Mexico
        Orange 13 25 Oct 2021 15:00 130 9.2 million 530 thousand Mexico
        Green 14 25 Oct 2021 21:00 56 3.2 million 740 thousand Mexico
        Green 15 26 Oct 2021 03:00 37 3.2 million 740 thousand Mexico

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 22 Oct 2021 15:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 12.7, -100.5
          GREEN
          		 2 22 Oct 2021 21:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 13.1, -101
          GREEN
          		 3 23 Oct 2021 03:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 13.4, -101.3
          GREEN
          		 4 23 Oct 2021 09:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 13.9, -101.4
          GREEN
          		 5 23 Oct 2021 15:00 Category 1 130 no people no people 14.7, -101.5
          GREEN
          		 6 23 Oct 2021 21:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 15.1, -101.8
          GREEN
          		 7 24 Oct 2021 03:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 15.3, -102
          GREEN
          		 8 24 Oct 2021 09:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 15.6, -101.7
          GREEN
          		 9 24 Oct 2021 15:00 Category 1 139 no people 390000 people 16.1, -101.7
          GREEN
          		 10 24 Oct 2021 21:00 Category 1 139 no people 430000 people 16.3, -101.7
          GREEN
          		 11 25 Oct 2021 03:00 Category 1 148 84000 people 590000 people 16.8, -101.6
          ORANGE
          		 12 25 Oct 2021 09:00 Category 2 167 290000 people 1.7 million people 17.7, -101.9
          ORANGE
          		 13 25 Oct 2021 15:00 Category 1 130 240000 people 2.9 million people 18.6, -102.2 Mexico
          GREEN
          		 14 25 Oct 2021 21:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 20, -102.5 Mexico
          GREEN
          		 15 26 Oct 2021 03:00 Tropical depression 37 no people no people 20.4, -103.1 Mexico
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country
          Mexico

          Provinces

          Region Province Country
          Jalisco Mexico
          Michoacan Mexico
          Guerrero Mexico

          Populated places

          Name Region Province Country City class Population
          Ocotlán Jalisco Mexico City 78000 people
          Sauhayo Michoacan de Ocampo Mexico City -
          La Barca Jalisco Mexico City 34000 people
          Jiquilpan Michoacán de Ocampo Mexico City 26000 people
          Cotija Michoacán de Ocampo Mexico City 14000 people
          Yurécuaro Michoacán de Ocampo Mexico City 20000 people
          Zamora Michoacán de Ocampo Mexico City 120000 people
          Uruapan Michoacán de Ocampo Mexico City 240000 people
          Apatzingan Michoacán de Ocampo Mexico City 94000 people
          Coalcomán Michoacán de Ocampo Mexico City 10000 people
          Pátzcuaro Michoacán de Ocampo Mexico City 48000 people
          Ario de Rosales Michoacán de Ocampo Mexico City -
          Tacambaro Michoacán de Ocampo Mexico City 21000 people
          Petatlán Guerrero Mexico City 20000 people
          Tecpan Guerrero Mexico City 14000 people

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          Ocotlan 1525 0
          Venustiano Carranza 1554 0
          Zamora ZMM 1567 Civ. Paved No 4900
          Jaujilla 1950 0
          Uruapan UPN 1593 Civ. Paved Yes 7800
          Pablo L Sidar AZG 315 0
          El Infiernillo 511 0
          Lazaro Cardenas LZC 12 Civ. Paved No 4900
          Ixtapa Zihuatanejo International ZIH 6 Civ. Paved Yes 8200

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Lazaro Cardenas MXLZC Mexico

          Dams

          Reservoir Dam Name River Year
          Chilatan Tepalcatepec 1986
          Zicuiran Zicuiran 1957
          Inhernillo El Infiernillo Balsas 1963
          Jose M. Morelos Balsas 1968
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          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

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          StormSurge

          0.5 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.5m in Melchor Ocampo, Mexico. This height is estimated for 25 Oct 2021 10:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (9 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 9 of 24 Oct 2021 15:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          25 Oct 2021 10:00 Melchor Ocampo Mexico  0.5
          25 Oct 2021 11:00 Playa Azul Mexico  0.3
          25 Oct 2021 06:00 Barrio Nuevo Mexico  0.2
          25 Oct 2021 13:00 Las Pinas Mexico  0.2
          25 Oct 2021 10:00 Joluta Mexico  0.2
          25 Oct 2021 05:00 Zihuatanejo Mexico  0.1
          25 Oct 2021 15:00 Calla de Campos Mexico  0.1
          25 Oct 2021 08:00 Lagunillas Mexico  0.1
          25 Oct 2021 14:00 Chula Mexico  0.1