Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for BATSIRAI-22
in Madagascar

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BATSIRAI-22 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS
Glide number: TC-2022-000160-MDG
Exposed countries Madagascar
Exposed population 2.9 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 231 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (11 Jan 01:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)
Landfall between
05 Feb 2022 12:00 - 06 Feb 2022 00:00

in Madagascar

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
Current 102 km/h 0.3 m n.a. 0.5
Overall 231 km/h 0.3 m n.a. 2.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

Wind

102 km/h Current Max.

Up to 20.4 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm or higher
Population in
Cat 1. or higher
Countries
Green 1 27 Jan 2022 00:00 102 40 thousand No people Mauritius
Green 2 27 Jan 2022 12:00 167 40 thousand No people Mauritius
Green 3 28 Jan 2022 00:00 130 40 thousand No people Mauritius
Green 4 28 Jan 2022 12:00 139 1000 thousand No people Mauritius
Green 5 29 Jan 2022 00:00 176 1.1 million No people Mauritius
Green 6 29 Jan 2022 12:00 194 2.2 million No people Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
Green 7 30 Jan 2022 00:00 185 2 million No people Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
Green 8 30 Jan 2022 12:00 204 3.1 million No people Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar
Green 9 31 Jan 2022 00:00 194 3.7 million No people Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar
Green 10 31 Jan 2022 12:00 194 14.4 million No people Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar
Orange 11 01 Feb 2022 00:00 204 16.4 million 480 thousand Madagascar
Red 12 01 Feb 2022 12:00 204 18.9 million 3.8 million Madagascar
Red 13 02 Feb 2022 00:00 231 20.3 million 2.8 million Madagascar
Red 14 02 Feb 2022 12:00 204 21 million 2.7 million Madagascar
Red 15 03 Feb 2022 00:00 204 20.8 million 3.6 million Madagascar
Red 16 03 Feb 2022 12:00 185 20.6 million 4.3 million Madagascar
Red 17 04 Feb 2022 00:00 204 20.6 million 4.4 million Madagascar
Red 18 04 Feb 2022 12:00 222 21.2 million 2.1 million Madagascar
Red 19 05 Feb 2022 00:00 185 20.8 million 2.2 million Madagascar
Red 20 05 Feb 2022 12:00 185 20.4 million 2.9 million Madagascar
Orange 21 06 Feb 2022 00:00 111 20.2 million 2.9 million Madagascar
Green 22 06 Feb 2022 12:00 102 20.4 million 2.9 million Madagascar

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category
(SSHS)
Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Population in
Tropical Storm
or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 27 Jan 2022 00:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -16.4, 83.7
GREEN
2 27 Jan 2022 12:00 Category 2 167 no people no people -18, 79.6
GREEN
3 28 Jan 2022 00:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people -18.6, 76.1
GREEN
4 28 Jan 2022 12:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people -18.3, 73.4
GREEN
5 29 Jan 2022 00:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people -18.2, 71.2
GREEN
6 29 Jan 2022 12:00 Category 1 130 no people no people -18, 69.9
GREEN
7 30 Jan 2022 00:00 Category 1 148 no people no people -17.6, 68.2
GREEN
8 30 Jan 2022 12:00 Category 2 176 no people no people -16.8, 66.1
GREEN
9 31 Jan 2022 00:00 Category 2 176 no people no people -16.4, 64.5
GREEN
10 31 Jan 2022 12:00 Category 2 157 no people no people -15.7, 63.2
GREEN
11 01 Feb 2022 00:00 Category 1 139 no people no people -16.4, 62.3
GREEN
12 01 Feb 2022 12:00 Category 2 167 no people 1.2 million people -17.2, 60.1
GREEN
13 02 Feb 2022 00:00 Category 4 222 no people 2.2 million people -18.1, 58.3
GREEN
14 02 Feb 2022 12:00 Category 4 231 no people 2.2 million people -18.9, 56.7
GREEN
15 03 Feb 2022 00:00 Category 4 213 no people 2.2 million people -19.1, 55.7
GREEN
16 03 Feb 2022 12:00 Category 4 213 no people 850000 people -19.2, 54.9
GREEN
17 04 Feb 2022 00:00 Category 3 194 no people 850000 people -19.4, 53.9
GREEN
18 04 Feb 2022 12:00 Category 4 213 no people 8.9 million people -19.4, 52.6
RED
19 05 Feb 2022 00:00 Category 3 185 160000 people 14.6 million people -19.9, 51.3
RED
20 05 Feb 2022 12:00 Category 3 185 2.5 million people 16.1 million people -20.8, 49.4
ORANGE
21 06 Feb 2022 00:00 Tropical storm 111 no people 16.3 million people -21.3, 46.9 Madagascar
GREEN
22 06 Feb 2022 12:00 Tropical storm 93 no people 5.6 million people -22.9, 44.4 Madagascar
GREEN
22 06 Feb 2022 12:00 Tropical storm 93 no people 2.5 million people -23.9, 42.5
GREEN
22 07 Feb 2022 00:00 Tropical storm 102 no people 2.1 million people -24.7, 41.8
GREEN
22 07 Feb 2022 12:00 Tropical storm 102 no people 1 million people -26, 41.5
GREEN
22 08 Feb 2022 00:00 Tropical storm 93 no people 35000 people -27.6, 41.7
GREEN
22 09 Feb 2022 00:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people -32.3, 43
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
Download:



Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Madagascar
Reunion
Mauritius

Provinces

Region Province Country
Toliara Madagascar
Fianarantsoa Madagascar
Antananarivo Madagascar
Mahajanga Madagascar
Toamasina Madagascar
Reunion Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
Mauritius Mauritius

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population
Ankazoabo Toliara Madagascar City 26000 people
Tulear Toliara Madagascar Major city -
Manja Toliara Madagascar City -
Morombe Toliara Madagascar City -
Betroka Toliara Madagascar City -
Ihosy Fianarantsoa Madagascar City 17000 people
Ambohibe Toliara Madagascar City -
Fianarantsoa Fianarantsoa Madagascar City 160000 people
Farafangana Fianarantsoa Madagascar City 25000 people
Sahasinaka Fianarantsoa Madagascar City -
Manakara Fianarantsoa Madagascar City 35000 people
Ambositra Fianarantsoa Madagascar City 30000 people
Antsirabe Antananarivo Madagascar City 150000 people
Mananjary Fianarantsoa Madagascar City 27000 people
Saka Antananarivo Madagascar City -
Antananarivo Antananarivo Madagascar Capital 1.4 million people
Moramanga Toamasina Madagascar City 29000 people
Tamatave Toamasina Madagascar City 200000 people
Fenerive Toamasina Madagascar City -
Saint-Denis Reunion Capital 140000 people
Port Louis Mauritius Capital 150000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
Ankazoabo WAK 430 Civ. Unpaved No 3500
Toliara TLE 8 Civ. Paved No 6500
Betioky BKU unknown 0
Tanandava TDV 27 Civ. Unpaved No 4500
Beroroha WBO 250 Civ. Unpaved No 3100
Manja MJA 240 Civ. Unpaved No 5200
Morombe MXM 5 Civ. Paved No 4200
Bekily OVA 387 Civ. Unpaved No 4100
Ihosy IHO 762 Civ. Unpaved No 5400
Ampanihy AMP 235 Civ. Unpaved No 3600
Mandabe WMD 290 Civ. Unpaved No 3500
Ambalavao 972 Civ. Unpaved No 3600
Morondava MOQ 7 Civ. Paved No 4900
Malaimbandy WML 182 Civ. Unpaved No 3900
Fianarantsoa WFI 1115 Civ. Paved No 4100
Ambatolahy AHY unknown 0
Farafangana RVA 8 Civ. Unpaved No 3400
Belo Sur Tsiribihina BMD 47 Civ. Paved No 4400
Manakara Sud WVK 10 Civ. Paved No 3900
Miandrivazo ZVA 62 Civ. Paved No 3600
Antsirabe ATJ 1523 Civ. Unpaved No 4900
Mananjary MNJ 6 Civ. Paved No 4900
Ankavandra JVA 130 Civ. Unpaved No 3200
Tsiroanomandidy WTS 846 Civ. Unpaved No 3500
Antananarivo Arivonimamo 1450 0
Antananarivo Ivato TNR 1279 Civ. Paved Yes 10100
Mahanoro VVB 5 Civ. Unpaved No 4400
Atsinanana ILK 10 Civ. Unpaved No 3200
Vatomandry VAT 12 Civ. Unpaved No 3800
Ambatondrazaka WAM 766 Civ. Unpaved No 4200
Toamasina TMM 6 Civ. Paved Yes 7200
Sainte Marie SMS 2 Civ. Paved No 3300
St Pierre Pierrefonds ZSE 16 0
Saint Denis Gillot RUN 20 0
Plaisance International MRU 57 Civ. Paved Yes 9900

Ports

Name LOCODE Country
Toliara MGTLE Madagascar
Manombo MGMOB Madagascar
Morombe MGMXM Madagascar
Antongo Madagascar
Androka MGADK Madagascar
Belo Sur Mer Madagascar
Morondava MGMOQ Madagascar
Faux Cap Madagascar
Manantenina Madagascar
Farafangana MGRVA Madagascar
Manakara MGWVK Madagascar
Mananjary MGMNJ Madagascar
Mahanoro MGVVB Madagascar
Vatomandry MGVAT Madagascar
Andevoranto Madagascar
Tamatave (Toamasina) MGTMM Madagascar
Foulpointe Madagascar
Fenerive Madagascar
Port Sainte Marie Madagascar
Pointe Des Galets REPDG Reunion
Saint Pierre Reunion
Saint Denis Reunion
Port Louis MUPLU Mauritius
Mahebourg Mauritius

Dams

Reservoir Dam Name River Year
Tsiazompaniry Varahina-Sud 1956
Mantasoa Varahina-Nord 1938
Antanifotsy Antanifotsy 1958

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Savana, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 11 Jan 2022 01:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (73 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 22 of 06 Feb 2022 12:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
11 Jan 2022 01:00 Savana Madagascar  0.3
11 Jan 2022 01:00 Ankarimbary Madagascar  0.3
11 Jan 2022 00:00 Tamotamo Madagascar  0.2
11 Jan 2022 00:00 Soahazo Madagascar  0.2
11 Jan 2022 01:00 Moravano Madagascar  0.2
11 Jan 2022 00:00 Loharano Madagascar  0.2
11 Jan 2022 01:00 Mangatsiatra Madagascar  0.2
11 Jan 2022 00:00 Tataho Madagascar  0.2
11 Jan 2022 00:00 Manakara Madagascar  0.2
11 Jan 2022 01:00 Ambozaka Madagascar  0.2
11 Jan 2022 01:00 Appontement Madagascar  0.2
11 Jan 2022 00:00 Ankoadavo Madagascar  0.2
11 Jan 2022 01:00 Andopitaly Madagascar  0.2
11 Jan 2022 01:00 Andramasay Madagascar  0.2
11 Jan 2022 01:00 Antanambao Samaka Madagascar  0.2
11 Jan 2022 01:00 Antohgo Madagascar  0.2
11 Jan 2022 01:00 Bemahala Madagascar  0.2
11 Jan 2022 00:00 Loharano Madagascar  0.2
11 Jan 2022 01:00 Farafangana Madagascar  0.2
11 Jan 2022 00:00 Soahanina Madagascar  0.2
11 Jan 2022 00:00 Andranomahitsy Madagascar  0.1
11 Jan 2022 00:00 Ambohitsara Madagascar  0.1
11 Jan 2022 01:00 Tsivala Madagascar  0.1
10 Jan 2022 02:00 Manakambahiny Madagascar  0.1
10 Jan 2022 02:00 Vohitramposina Madagascar  0.1
11 Jan 2022 01:00 Tsaratanana Madagascar  0.1
11 Jan 2022 01:00 Amboboka Madagascar  0.1
11 Jan 2022 01:00 Vohilava Madagascar  0.1
11 Jan 2022 00:00 Ambahy Madagascar  0.1
11 Jan 2022 01:00 Manambotra Madagascar  0.1
11 Jan 2022 01:00 Ampatsinakoho Madagascar  0.1
11 Jan 2022 01:00 Kivalo Est Madagascar  0.1
11 Jan 2022 00:00 Anakitaina Madagascar  0.1
11 Jan 2022 01:00 Maintirano Madagascar  0.1
11 Jan 2022 01:00 Ambalavontaka Madagascar  0.1
11 Jan 2022 01:00 Mananjary Madagascar  0.1
11 Jan 2022 00:00 Mahela Madagascar  0.1
11 Jan 2022 01:00 Reharaka Madagascar  0.1
11 Jan 2022 01:00 Manomba Madagascar  0.1
11 Jan 2022 00:00 Andemba Madagascar  0.1
11 Jan 2022 01:00 Ampanihy Madagascar  0.1
10 Jan 2022 02:00 Ankarefo Madagascar  0.1
10 Jan 2022 02:00 Marosiky Madagascar  0.1
10 Jan 2022 02:00 Vatomandry Madagascar  0.1
10 Jan 2022 00:00 Andranotsara Madagascar  0.1
11 Jan 2022 01:00 Ampataka Madagascar  0.1
11 Jan 2022 01:00 Ankaramanihy Madagascar  0.1
11 Jan 2022 01:00 Marohita Madagascar  0.1
11 Jan 2022 00:00 Anasindrano Madagascar  0.1
11 Jan 2022 00:00 Nosy-Varika Madagascar  0.1
11 Jan 2022 00:00 Ambinanivolo Madagascar  0.1
11 Jan 2022 01:00 Pakapakaina Madagascar  0.1
11 Jan 2022 01:00 Itenina Madagascar  0.1
11 Jan 2022 01:00 Manampatra Madagascar  0.1
11 Jan 2022 01:00 Voalavo Madagascar  0.1
11 Jan 2022 01:00 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.1
11 Jan 2022 01:00 Tambohorano Madagascar  0.1
11 Jan 2022 01:00 Belailay Madagascar  0.1
11 Jan 2022 01:00 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.1
11 Jan 2022 01:00 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.1
10 Jan 2022 02:00 Ambohidara Madagascar  0.1
10 Jan 2022 02:00 Amboditafara Madagascar  0.1
10 Jan 2022 02:00 Kalomalala Madagascar  0.1
10 Jan 2022 02:00 Masomeloka Madagascar  0.1
11 Jan 2022 00:00 Ambodiharina Madagascar  0.1
11 Jan 2022 00:00 Mahanoro Madagascar  0.1
11 Jan 2022 00:00 Ambalavontaka Madagascar  0.1
11 Jan 2022 01:00 Befasy Madagascar  0.1
11 Jan 2022 00:00 Manambondro Madagascar  0.1
11 Jan 2022 00:00 Amboananto Madagascar  0.1
11 Jan 2022 02:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.1
11 Jan 2022 01:00 Manantenina Madagascar  0.1
11 Jan 2022 01:00 Sarahanonoy Madagascar  0.1