Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for FREDDY-23
in Mozambique, Madagascar
20 Feb 2023 10 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FREDDY-23 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France
Glide number: TC-2023-000023-MDG
Exposed countries Madagascar
Exposed population 2.5 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 253 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (21 Feb 22:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)
Landfall between
23 Feb 2023 22:00 - 24 Feb 2023 10:00

in Mozambique

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
Current 232 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 2.5
Overall 253 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 2.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France impact

Joint Pilot Activity: EC-JRC,WMO/RSMC La Réunion-Meteo France

Wind

232 km/h Current Max.

Up to 2.5 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm or higher
Population in
Cat 1. or higher
Countries
Green 1 10 Feb 2023 16:00 127 No people No people
Green 2 10 Feb 2023 22:00 127 No people No people
Green 3 11 Feb 2023 04:00 158 No people No people
Green 4 11 Feb 2023 10:00 158 No people No people
Green 5 11 Feb 2023 16:00 190 No people No people
Green 6 11 Feb 2023 22:00 211 No people No people
Green 7 12 Feb 2023 04:00 201 No people No people
Green 8 12 Feb 2023 10:00 201 No people No people
Green 9 12 Feb 2023 16:00 190 No people No people
Green 10 12 Feb 2023 22:00 201 No people No people
Green 11 13 Feb 2023 04:00 211 No people No people
Green 12 13 Feb 2023 10:00 201 No people No people
Green 13 13 Feb 2023 16:00 190 No people No people
Green 14 13 Feb 2023 22:00 169 No people No people
Green 15 14 Feb 2023 04:00 158 No people No people
Green 16 14 Feb 2023 10:00 158 No people No people
Green 17 14 Feb 2023 16:00 179 No people No people
Green 18 14 Feb 2023 22:00 232 No people No people
Green 19 15 Feb 2023 04:00 243 No people No people
Green 20 15 Feb 2023 10:00 243 No people No people
Green 21 15 Feb 2023 16:00 243 No people No people
Green 22 15 Feb 2023 22:00 232 No people No people
Green 23 16 Feb 2023 04:00 232 No people No people
Green 24 16 Feb 2023 10:00 232 450 thousand No people Mauritius
Green 25 16 Feb 2023 16:00 232 660 thousand No people Mauritius
Green 26 16 Feb 2023 22:00 232 2.6 million No people Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar
Orange 27 17 Feb 2023 04:00 211 8.1 million 420 thousand Madagascar
Orange 28 17 Feb 2023 10:00 201 10.5 million 1.3 million Madagascar
Orange 29 17 Feb 2023 16:00 211 18.3 million 3.1 million Madagascar
Orange 30 17 Feb 2023 22:00 211 17.9 million 1.2 million Madagascar
Orange 31 18 Feb 2023 04:00 222 18.4 million 2.9 million Madagascar
Red 32 18 Feb 2023 10:00 222 17.8 million 1.9 million Madagascar
Red 33 18 Feb 2023 16:00 222 17.6 million 1.1 million Madagascar
Red 34 18 Feb 2023 22:00 222 19.1 million 2.2 million Madagascar
Red 35 19 Feb 2023 04:00 232 21.9 million 1.3 million Madagascar
Red 36 19 Feb 2023 10:00 222 24.4 million 3.7 million Madagascar, Mozambique
Orange 37 19 Feb 2023 16:00 253 40 thousand 40 thousand Mauritius
Green 38 19 Feb 2023 22:00 253 2.1 million No people Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
Green 39 20 Feb 2023 04:00 243 2.1 million No people Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
Red 40 20 Feb 2023 10:00 232 28.1 million 2.5 million Madagascar

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category
(SSHS)
Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Population in
Tropical Storm
or higher
Category
(WMO/RSMC) **
Max winds
(km/h)
(WMO/RSMC)
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 10 Feb 2023 16:00 Category 1 127 no people no people Severe Tropical Storm 111 -14.8, 106.7
GREEN
2 10 Feb 2023 22:00 Category 1 127 no people no people Severe Tropical Storm 111 -14.8, 106
GREEN
3 11 Feb 2023 04:00 Category 2 158 no people no people Tropical Cyclone 139 -14.8, 105.1
GREEN
4 11 Feb 2023 10:00 Category 2 158 no people no people Tropical Cyclone 139 -14.8, 104.1
GREEN
5 11 Feb 2023 16:00 Category 3 190 no people no people Intense Tropical Cyclone 167 -14.8, 103.1
GREEN
6 11 Feb 2023 22:00 Category 4 211 no people no people Intense Tropical Cyclone 185 -14.8, 102.1
GREEN
7 12 Feb 2023 04:00 Category 3 201 no people no people Intense Tropical Cyclone 176 -15, 101.2
GREEN
8 12 Feb 2023 10:00 Category 3 201 no people no people Intense Tropical Cyclone 176 -15, 100.2
GREEN
9 12 Feb 2023 16:00 Category 3 190 no people no people Intense Tropical Cyclone 167 -15.1, 99
GREEN
10 12 Feb 2023 22:00 Category 3 201 no people no people Intense Tropical Cyclone 176 -15.1, 98
GREEN
11 13 Feb 2023 04:00 Category 4 211 no people no people Intense Tropical Cyclone 185 -15.2, 96.9
GREEN
12 13 Feb 2023 10:00 Category 3 201 no people no people Intense Tropical Cyclone 176 -15.3, 95.9
GREEN
13 13 Feb 2023 16:00 Category 3 190 no people no people Intense Tropical Cyclone 167 -15.4, 94.6
GREEN
14 13 Feb 2023 22:00 Category 2 169 no people no people Tropical Cyclone 148 -15.4, 93.7
GREEN
15 14 Feb 2023 04:00 Category 2 158 no people no people Tropical Cyclone 139 -15.3, 92.5
GREEN
16 14 Feb 2023 10:00 Category 2 158 no people no people Tropical Cyclone 139 -15.4, 91.3
GREEN
17 14 Feb 2023 16:00 Category 3 179 no people no people Tropical Cyclone 157 -15.3, 90.1
GREEN
18 14 Feb 2023 22:00 Category 3 201 no people no people Intense Tropical Cyclone 176 -15.2, 88.8
GREEN
19 15 Feb 2023 04:00 Category 4 232 no people no people Intense Tropical Cyclone 204 -15.2, 87.6
GREEN
20 15 Feb 2023 10:00 Category 4 243 no people no people Very Intense Tropical Cyclone 213 -15, 86.3
GREEN
21 15 Feb 2023 16:00 Category 4 243 no people no people Very Intense Tropical Cyclone 213 -14.9, 84.9
GREEN
22 15 Feb 2023 22:00 Category 4 232 no people no people Intense Tropical Cyclone 204 -14.8, 83.6
GREEN
23 16 Feb 2023 04:00 Category 4 232 no people no people Intense Tropical Cyclone 204 -14.7, 82.3
GREEN
24 16 Feb 2023 10:00 Category 4 222 no people no people Intense Tropical Cyclone 194 -14.8, 81
GREEN
25 16 Feb 2023 16:00 Category 4 211 no people no people Intense Tropical Cyclone 185 -14.9, 79.6
GREEN
26 16 Feb 2023 22:00 Category 4 222 no people no people Intense Tropical Cyclone 194 -15.1, 78.1
GREEN
27 17 Feb 2023 04:00 Category 4 222 no people no people Intense Tropical Cyclone 194 -15.3, 76.6
GREEN
28 17 Feb 2023 10:00 Category 4 222 no people no people Intense Tropical Cyclone 194 -15.5, 75.2
GREEN
29 17 Feb 2023 16:00 Category 4 232 no people no people Intense Tropical Cyclone 204 -15.8, 74
GREEN
30 17 Feb 2023 22:00 Category 4 222 no people no people Intense Tropical Cyclone 194 -16, 72.9
GREEN
31 18 Feb 2023 04:00 Category 4 222 no people no people Intense Tropical Cyclone 194 -16.1, 71.6
GREEN
32 18 Feb 2023 10:00 Category 4 211 no people no people Intense Tropical Cyclone 185 -16.1, 70.5
GREEN
33 18 Feb 2023 16:00 Category 4 211 no people no people Intense Tropical Cyclone 185 -16.1, 69.3
GREEN
34 18 Feb 2023 22:00 Category 4 211 no people no people Intense Tropical Cyclone 185 -16.3, 68.2
GREEN
35 19 Feb 2023 04:00 Category 5 253 no people 28000 people Very Intense Tropical Cyclone 222 -16.6, 67
GREEN
36 19 Feb 2023 10:00 Category 5 253 no people 43000 people Very Intense Tropical Cyclone 222 -16.9, 65.5
ORANGE
37 19 Feb 2023 16:00 Category 5 253 43000 people 43000 people Very Intense Tropical Cyclone 222 -17.3, 64
GREEN
38 19 Feb 2023 22:00 Category 5 253 no people 2.1 million people Very Intense Tropical Cyclone 222 -17.7, 62.4
GREEN
39 20 Feb 2023 04:00 Category 4 243 no people 2.1 million people Very Intense Tropical Cyclone 213 -18.1, 60.6
GREEN
40 20 Feb 2023 10:00 Category 4 232 no people 2.1 million people Intense Tropical Cyclone 204 -18.4, 58.8
GREEN
40 20 Feb 2023 22:00 Category 4 232 no people 3.7 million people Intense Tropical Cyclone 204 -19.2, 55.3
RED
40 21 Feb 2023 10:00 Category 4 232 810000 people 13.7 million people Intense Tropical Cyclone 204 -20.1, 51.7
RED
40 21 Feb 2023 22:00 Category 4 232 2.5 million people 15.7 million people Intense Tropical Cyclone 204 -20.9, 48.6 Madagascar
GREEN
40 22 Feb 2023 10:00 Tropical storm 74 no people 8.2 million people Moderate Tropical Storm 65 -21.5, 45.2 Madagascar
GREEN
40 22 Feb 2023 22:00 Tropical storm 63 no people 820000 people Tropical Depression 56 -21.7, 42.2
GREEN
40 23 Feb 2023 10:00 Tropical storm 84 no people 2.9 million people Moderate Tropical Storm 74 -21.5, 39.7
GREEN
40 23 Feb 2023 22:00 Tropical storm 116 no people 7 million people Severe Tropical Storm 102 -20.9, 36.8
GREEN
40 24 Feb 2023 10:00 Tropical storm 106 no people 6.9 million people Severe Tropical Storm 93 -20.3, 34.5 Mozambique
GREEN
40 24 Feb 2023 22:00 Tropical storm 63 no people 6.5 million people Overland Depression 56 -20.3, 33 Mozambique, Zimbabwe
GREEN
40 25 Feb 2023 10:00 Tropical storm 63 no people no people Overland Depression 56 -21.3, 30.9 Zimbabwe
**
Tropical disturbance/Weak low pressure area/Remnant low (Vmax < 51 km/h), see WMO
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
Download:



Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
Madagascar 2.5 million people

Provinces

Region Province Country Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
Toamasina Madagascar 160000 people
Fianarantsoa Madagascar 2.3 million people
Toliara Madagascar 29000 people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population
Mananjary Fianarantsoa Madagascar City 27000 people
Ambositra Fianarantsoa Madagascar City 30000 people
Fianarantsoa Fianarantsoa Madagascar City 160000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
Mananjary MNJ 6 Civ. Paved No 4900
Fianarantsoa WFI 1115 Civ. Paved No 4100
Beroroha WBO 250 Civ. Unpaved No 3100

Ports

Name LOCODE Country
Mahanoro MGVVB Madagascar
Mananjary MGMNJ Madagascar

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Ambahy, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 21 Feb 2023 22:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (13 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 30 of 17 Feb 2023 22:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
21 Feb 2023 22:00 Ambahy Madagascar  0.2
21 Feb 2023 22:00 Ambinanivolo Madagascar  0.2
21 Feb 2023 22:00 Andranotsara Madagascar  0.2
21 Feb 2023 22:00 Nosy-Varika Madagascar  0.1
21 Feb 2023 22:00 Vohitramposina Madagascar  0.1
21 Feb 2023 22:00 Marosiky Madagascar  0.1
21 Feb 2023 22:00 Ambalavontaka Madagascar  0.1
21 Feb 2023 22:00 Ambohitsara Madagascar  0.1
21 Feb 2023 22:00 Manakambahiny Madagascar  0.1
21 Feb 2023 22:00 Masomeloka Madagascar  0.1
21 Feb 2023 22:00 Vatomandry Madagascar  0.1
21 Feb 2023 18:00 Ankarefo Madagascar  0.1
21 Feb 2023 22:00 Anasindrano Madagascar  0.1