Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for IALY-24
in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IALY-24 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France
Exposed countries Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 137 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (20 May 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Tanzania)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
Current 106 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 0.5
Overall 137 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France impact

Joint Pilot Activity: EC-JRC,WMO/RSMC La Réunion-Meteo France

Wind

106 km/h Current Max.

Up to <1000 people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm or higher
Population in
Cat 1. or higher
Countries
Green 1 16 May 2024 12:00 84 Few people No people
Green 2 16 May 2024 18:00 106 Few people No people Seychelles, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
Green 3 17 May 2024 00:00 106 Few people No people Seychelles
Green 4 17 May 2024 06:00 106 Few people No people Seychelles
Green 5 17 May 2024 12:00 106 Few people No people Seychelles

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category
(SSHS)
Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Population in
Tropical Storm
or higher
Category
(WMO/RSMC) **
Max winds
(km/h)
(WMO/RSMC)
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 16 May 2024 12:00 Tropical storm 84 no people <1000 people Moderate Tropical Storm 74 -9, 52.6
GREEN
2 16 May 2024 18:00 Tropical storm 84 no people <1000 people Moderate Tropical Storm 74 -9.1, 52.2
GREEN
3 17 May 2024 00:00 Tropical storm 84 no people no people Moderate Tropical Storm 74 -9.2, 51.7
GREEN
4 17 May 2024 06:00 Tropical storm 84 no people no people Moderate Tropical Storm 74 -9.1, 51
GREEN
5 17 May 2024 12:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people Moderate Tropical Storm 65 -8.7, 50.3
GREEN
5 18 May 2024 00:00 Tropical storm 63 no people <1000 people Tropical Depression 56 -8.5, 49.2
GREEN
5 18 May 2024 12:00 Tropical storm 84 no people <1000 people Moderate Tropical Storm 74 -8.4, 48.4
GREEN
5 19 May 2024 00:00 Tropical storm 106 no people <1000 people Severe Tropical Storm 93 -8.2, 48
GREEN
5 19 May 2024 12:00 Tropical storm 95 no people <1000 people Moderate Tropical Storm 83 -7.8, 47.8
GREEN
5 20 May 2024 00:00 Tropical storm 84 no people <1000 people Moderate Tropical Storm 74 -7, 47.7
GREEN
5 20 May 2024 12:00 Tropical storm 84 no people no people Moderate Tropical Storm 74 -5.8, 47.8
GREEN
5 21 May 2024 00:00 Tropical storm 63 no people no people Tropical Depression 56 -4.4, 48.3
GREEN
5 21 May 2024 12:00 Tropical depression 53 no people no people Tropical Disturbance 46 -3.2, 49.3
**
Tropical disturbance/Weak low pressure area/Remnant low (Vmax < 51 km/h), see WMO
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
Download:



Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
Seychelles <1000 people

Provinces

Region Province Country Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
Seychelles Seychelles <1000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
Farquhar 3 Priv. Paved No 3100
Alphonse 3 Civ. Paved No 3100
Assumption Island 3 Civ. Paved No 3900

Ports

Name LOCODE Country
Saint Pierre Island Seychelles
Providence Island Seychelles
Cosmoledo Island Seychelles
Astove Island Seychelles
Assumption Island Seychelles

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Makowe, Kenya. This height is estimated for 20 May 2024 12:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (17 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 5 of 17 May 2024 12:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
20 May 2024 12:00 Makowe Kenya  0.2
20 May 2024 12:00 Matondoni Kenya  0.2
20 May 2024 12:00 Amu Kenya  0.2
20 May 2024 12:00 Lamu Kenya  0.2
17 May 2024 04:00 Voloina Madagascar  0.2
17 May 2024 04:00 Manambia Madagascar  0.2
17 May 2024 04:00 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.2
17 May 2024 04:00 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.2
17 May 2024 04:00 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.1
17 May 2024 04:00 Benjana Madagascar  0.1
17 May 2024 04:00 Mahalevona Madagascar  0.1
17 May 2024 04:00 Tampolo Madagascar  0.1
17 May 2024 04:00 Rantabe Madagascar  0.1
17 May 2024 04:00 Fananehana Madagascar  0.1
20 May 2024 14:00 Kiongwe Kenya  0.1
17 May 2024 04:00 Ambanizana Madagascar  0.1
17 May 2024 04:00 Maintimbato Madagascar  0.1