Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for IALY-24
in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IALY-24 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France
Exposed countries Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 137 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (21 May 13:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Tanzania)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
Current 95 km/h 0.3 m n.a. 0.5
Overall 137 km/h 0.3 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France impact

Joint Pilot Activity: EC-JRC,WMO/RSMC La Réunion-Meteo France

Wind

95 km/h Current Max.

Up to <1000 people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm or higher
Population in
Cat 1. or higher
Countries
Green 1 16 May 2024 12:00 84 Few people No people
Green 2 16 May 2024 18:00 106 Few people No people Seychelles, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
Green 3 17 May 2024 00:00 106 Few people No people Seychelles
Green 4 17 May 2024 06:00 106 Few people No people Seychelles
Green 5 17 May 2024 12:00 106 Few people No people Seychelles
Green 6 17 May 2024 18:00 106 Few people No people Seychelles
Green 7 18 May 2024 00:00 116 Few people No people
Green 8 18 May 2024 06:00 106 Few people No people
Green 9 18 May 2024 12:00 106 Few people No people
Green 10 18 May 2024 18:00 127 Few people No people
Green 11 19 May 2024 00:00 127 Few people No people
Green 12 19 May 2024 06:00 127 Few people No people
Green 13 19 May 2024 12:00 116 Few people No people Seychelles
Green 14 19 May 2024 18:00 106 Few people No people
Green 15 20 May 2024 00:00 95 Few people No people

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category
(SSHS)
Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Population in
Tropical Storm
or higher
Category
(WMO/RSMC) **
Max winds
(km/h)
(WMO/RSMC)
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 16 May 2024 12:00 Tropical storm 84 no people <1000 people Moderate Tropical Storm 74 -9, 52.6
GREEN
2 16 May 2024 18:00 Tropical storm 84 no people <1000 people Moderate Tropical Storm 74 -9.1, 52.3
GREEN
3 17 May 2024 00:00 Tropical storm 84 no people no people Moderate Tropical Storm 74 -9.1, 51.7
GREEN
4 17 May 2024 06:00 Tropical storm 84 no people no people Moderate Tropical Storm 74 -9, 51
GREEN
5 17 May 2024 12:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people Moderate Tropical Storm 65 -8.8, 50.4
GREEN
6 17 May 2024 18:00 Tropical storm 84 no people no people Moderate Tropical Storm 74 -8.4, 49.7
GREEN
7 18 May 2024 00:00 Tropical storm 84 no people no people Moderate Tropical Storm 74 -8.1, 49.3
GREEN
8 18 May 2024 06:00 Tropical storm 84 no people no people Moderate Tropical Storm 74 -7.9, 48.7
GREEN
9 18 May 2024 12:00 Tropical storm 95 no people no people Moderate Tropical Storm 83 -7.8, 47.8
GREEN
10 18 May 2024 18:00 Tropical storm 106 no people no people Severe Tropical Storm 93 -7.8, 47.1
GREEN
11 19 May 2024 00:00 Tropical storm 106 no people no people Severe Tropical Storm 93 -7.5, 46.4
GREEN
12 19 May 2024 06:00 Category 1 127 no people no people Severe Tropical Storm 111 -7.6, 45.9
GREEN
13 19 May 2024 12:00 Tropical storm 106 no people no people Severe Tropical Storm 93 -7.4, 45.4
GREEN
14 19 May 2024 18:00 Tropical storm 106 no people no people Severe Tropical Storm 93 -7.2, 45.1
GREEN
15 20 May 2024 00:00 Tropical storm 95 no people no people Moderate Tropical Storm 83 -6.8, 44.8
GREEN
15 20 May 2024 12:00 Tropical storm 95 no people no people Moderate Tropical Storm 83 -5.3, 44.3
GREEN
15 21 May 2024 00:00 Tropical storm 84 no people no people Moderate Tropical Storm 74 -3.8, 44.2
GREEN
15 21 May 2024 12:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people Moderate Tropical Storm 65 -3.1, 44.4
GREEN
15 22 May 2024 00:00 Tropical depression 53 no people no people Tropical Disturbance 46 -2.5, 44.7
**
Tropical disturbance/Weak low pressure area/Remnant low (Vmax < 51 km/h), see WMO
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
Download:



Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
Farquhar 3 Priv. Paved No 3100
Alphonse 3 Civ. Paved No 3100

Ports

Name LOCODE Country
Saint Pierre Island Seychelles
Providence Island Seychelles

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Kipini, Kenya. This height is estimated for 21 May 2024 13:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (51 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 15 of 20 May 2024 00:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
21 May 2024 13:00 Kipini Kenya  0.3
21 May 2024 12:00 Vanga Kenya  0.2
21 May 2024 12:00 Makowe Kenya  0.2
21 May 2024 12:00 Kililana Kenya  0.2
21 May 2024 12:00 Mchamba Wima Tanzania  0.2
21 May 2024 12:00 Kibele Tanzania  0.2
21 May 2024 12:00 Dondo Tanzania  0.2
21 May 2024 12:00 Mpafu Tanzania  0.2
21 May 2024 12:00 Kutani Tanzania  0.2
21 May 2024 12:00 Fumba Tanzania  0.2
21 May 2024 12:00 Vumbi Tanzania  0.2
21 May 2024 12:00 Pangani Tanzania  0.2
21 May 2024 12:00 Buuni Village Tanzania  0.2
17 May 2024 04:00 Voloina Madagascar  0.2
17 May 2024 04:00 Manambia Madagascar  0.2
17 May 2024 04:00 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.2
17 May 2024 04:00 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.2
21 May 2024 12:00 Amu Kenya  0.2
21 May 2024 12:00 Lamu Kenya  0.2
21 May 2024 13:00 Pate Kenya  0.2
21 May 2024 13:00 Siyu Kenya  0.2
21 May 2024 12:00 Mkwiro Kenya  0.2
17 May 2024 04:00 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.1
17 May 2024 04:00 Benjana Madagascar  0.1
21 May 2024 13:00 Rasini Kenya  0.1
21 May 2024 13:00 Kiongwe Kenya  0.1
21 May 2024 12:00 Kiembi Samaki Tanzania  0.1
21 May 2024 12:00 Kiechuru Tanzania  0.1
20 May 2024 11:00 Ziwani Tanzania  0.1
20 May 2024 11:00 Kijichame Tanzania  0.1
20 May 2024 03:00 Mwera Tanzania  0.1
20 May 2024 14:00 Chekea Tanzania  0.1
21 May 2024 12:00 Ushongo Mabaoni Tanzania  0.1
17 May 2024 04:00 Mahalevona Madagascar  0.1
17 May 2024 04:00 Tampolo Madagascar  0.1
21 May 2024 12:00 Mbwera Tanzania  0.1
21 May 2024 13:00 Mkunumbi Kenya  0.1
17 May 2024 04:00 Rantabe Madagascar  0.1
17 May 2024 04:00 Fananehana Madagascar  0.1
21 May 2024 12:00 Matondoni Kenya  0.1
20 May 2024 01:00 Meronvi Mozambique  0.1
20 May 2024 01:00 Quissengue Mozambique  0.1
21 May 2024 12:00 Uzi Tanzania  0.1
20 May 2024 04:00 Uchangani Tanzania  0.1
17 May 2024 04:00 Ambanizana Madagascar  0.1
17 May 2024 04:00 Maintimbato Madagascar  0.1
21 May 2024 13:00 Hidio Kenya  0.1
17 May 2024 04:00 Andringahely Madagascar  0.1
21 May 2024 12:00 Jaja Tanzania  0.1
21 May 2024 13:00 Rubu Kenya  0.1
21 May 2024 13:00 Ngomeni Kenya  0.1