Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for KIRK-24 in Portugal, Spain, France, United Kingdom, Belgium, Luxembourg, Germany from 29 Sep 2024 21:00 UTC to 06 Oct 2024 09:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for KIRK-24

in Portugal, Spain, France, United Kingdom, Belgium, Luxembourg, Germany

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone KIRK-24 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Portugal, Spain, France, United Kingdom, Belgium, Luxembourg, Germany
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	231 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (07 Oct 21:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Low (Portugal)
Landfall	between 09 Oct 2024 06:00 - 10 Oct 2024 06:00 in Germany

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	167 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	231 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

167 km/h Current Max.

Up to no people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	29 Sep 2024 21:00	194	No people	No people
2	30 Sep 2024 03:00	194	No people	No people
3	30 Sep 2024 09:00	194	No people	No people
4	30 Sep 2024 15:00	204	No people	No people
5	30 Sep 2024 21:00	204	No people	No people
6	01 Oct 2024 03:00	204	No people	No people
7	01 Oct 2024 09:00	204	No people	No people
8	01 Oct 2024 15:00	204	No people	No people
9	01 Oct 2024 21:00	204	No people	No people
10	02 Oct 2024 03:00	204	No people	No people
11	02 Oct 2024 09:00	204	No people	No people
12	02 Oct 2024 15:00	213	No people	No people
13	02 Oct 2024 21:00	213	No people	No people
14	03 Oct 2024 00:00	231	No people	No people
15	03 Oct 2024 03:00	241	No people	No people
16	03 Oct 2024 09:00	222	5 thousand	No people	Portugal
17	03 Oct 2024 15:00	222	5 thousand	No people	Portugal
18	03 Oct 2024 21:00	231	5 thousand	No people	Portugal
19	04 Oct 2024 03:00	250	5 thousand	No people	Portugal
20	04 Oct 2024 09:00	231	5 thousand	No people	Portugal
21	04 Oct 2024 15:00	222	7.2 million	No people	Portugal, Spain, Ireland, France, United Kingdom, Guernsey
22	04 Oct 2024 21:00	213	100.2 million	No people	Portugal, Spain, Ireland, France, United Kingdom, Guernsey, Belgium, Netherlands
23	05 Oct 2024 03:00	213	107.5 million	No people	Portugal, Spain, Ireland, France, United Kingdom, Guernsey, Belgium, Netherlands
24	05 Oct 2024 09:00	204	146 million	No people	Portugal, Spain, United Kingdom, France, Guernsey, Belgium, Netherlands, Luxembourg, Germany
25	05 Oct 2024 15:00	194	162.7 million	No people	Portugal, Spain, United Kingdom, France, Guernsey, Belgium, Netherlands, Luxembourg, Germany, Norway, Denmark, Sweden
26	05 Oct 2024 21:00	194	168.9 million	No people	Portugal, Spain, United Kingdom, France, Guernsey, Belgium, Netherlands, Luxembourg, Germany, Denmark, Sweden, Poland
27	06 Oct 2024 03:00	185	130.4 million	No people	Portugal, Spain, United Kingdom, France, Guernsey, Belgium, Netherlands, Luxembourg, Switzerland, Germany
28	06 Oct 2024 09:00	167	130.9 million	No people	Portugal, Spain, United Kingdom, France, Guernsey, Belgium, Netherlands, Luxembourg, Germany

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	29 Sep 2024 21:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	13.8, -32.5
2	30 Sep 2024 03:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	13.9, -33.2
3	30 Sep 2024 09:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	14, -34.1
4	30 Sep 2024 15:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	13.5, -34.8
5	30 Sep 2024 21:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	13.6, -35.7
6	01 Oct 2024 03:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	14.4, -36.8
7	01 Oct 2024 09:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	14.9, -38
8	01 Oct 2024 15:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	15.3, -39.2
9	01 Oct 2024 21:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	16.2, -40.1
10	02 Oct 2024 03:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	16.7, -40.8
11	02 Oct 2024 09:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	17.5, -42.1
12	02 Oct 2024 15:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	18, -43
13	02 Oct 2024 21:00	Category 1	148	no people	no people	18.9, -44
14	03 Oct 2024 00:00	Category 3	194	no people	no people	19.3, -44.3
15	03 Oct 2024 03:00	Category 3	204	no people	no people	19.5, -44.5
16	03 Oct 2024 09:00	Category 3	194	no people	no people	20, -45
17	03 Oct 2024 15:00	Category 3	204	no people	no people	20.4, -45.9
18	03 Oct 2024 21:00	Category 4	213	no people	no people	21.1, -46.7
19	04 Oct 2024 03:00	Category 4	231	no people	no people	21.5, -47.5
20	04 Oct 2024 09:00	Category 4	231	no people	no people	22.3, -48.1
21	04 Oct 2024 15:00	Category 4	222	no people	no people	23, -48.9
22	04 Oct 2024 21:00	Category 4	213	no people	no people	23.7, -49.4
23	05 Oct 2024 03:00	Category 4	213	no people	no people	25, -49.8
24	05 Oct 2024 09:00	Category 3	204	no people	no people	26.2, -50.2
25	05 Oct 2024 15:00	Category 3	194	no people	no people	27.6, -50.3
26	05 Oct 2024 21:00	Category 3	194	no people	no people	29.6, -50
27	06 Oct 2024 03:00	Category 3	185	no people	no people	31.3, -49.3
28	06 Oct 2024 09:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	33.5, -49
28	06 Oct 2024 18:00	Category 1	148	no people	no people	36.2, -47
28	07 Oct 2024 06:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	39.6, -42.6
28	07 Oct 2024 18:00	Category 1	120	no people	8400 people	42.2, -36.7
28	08 Oct 2024 06:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	8400 people	43.4, -29.4
28	08 Oct 2024 18:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	1.7 million people	43.9, -20.3
28	09 Oct 2024 06:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	130.9 million people	45.5, -10
28	10 Oct 2024 06:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	51.5, 7.5	Germany

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Faja Grande, Portugal. This height is estimated for 07 Oct 2024 21:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (39 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 21 of 04 Oct 2024 15:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 2 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	07 Oct 2024 21:00	Faja Grande	Portugal	0.2
	07 Oct 2024 22:00	Ponta Delgada	Portugal	0.2
	07 Oct 2024 22:00	Lajes	Portugal	0.2
	07 Oct 2024 22:00	Santa Cruz	Portugal	0.2
	07 Oct 2024 22:00	Flores	Portugal	0.2
	07 Oct 2024 22:00	Corvo	Portugal	0.2
	08 Oct 2024 02:00	Beira Mar	Portugal	0.1
	08 Oct 2024 02:00	Santa Cruz da Graciosa	Portugal	0.1
	08 Oct 2024 00:00	'Praia do Norte'	Portugal	0.1
	08 Oct 2024 00:00	'Castelo Branco'	Portugal	0.1
	08 Oct 2024 00:00	Cedros	Portugal	0.1
	08 Oct 2024 00:00	Horta	Portugal	0.1
	08 Oct 2024 00:00	Ribeirinha	Portugal	0.1
	08 Oct 2024 00:00	Madalena	Portugal	0.1
	08 Oct 2024 00:00	Candelaria	Portugal	0.1
	07 Oct 2024 23:00	S. Mateus	Portugal	0.1
	08 Oct 2024 00:00	Cachorro	Portugal	0.1
	08 Oct 2024 04:00	Sao Roque do Pico	Portugal	0.1
	08 Oct 2024 03:00	Prainha de Baixo	Portugal	0.1
	08 Oct 2024 03:00	Ribeira Grande	Portugal	0.1
	08 Oct 2024 04:00	Velas	Portugal	0.1
	08 Oct 2024 04:00	Urzelina	Portugal	0.1
	08 Oct 2024 03:00	Ribeirinha	Portugal	0.1
	08 Oct 2024 04:00	'Norte Grande'	Portugal	0.1
	08 Oct 2024 03:00	Manhenha	Portugal	0.1
	08 Oct 2024 04:00	'Ribeira Seca'	Portugal	0.1
	08 Oct 2024 04:00	'Barreiras'	Portugal	0.1
	08 Oct 2024 04:00	'Topo'	Portugal	0.1
	08 Oct 2024 04:00	Serreta	Portugal	0.1
	08 Oct 2024 04:00	Santa Barbara	Portugal	0.1
	08 Oct 2024 04:00	Biscoitos	Portugal	0.1
	08 Oct 2024 04:00	Angra do Heroismo	Portugal	0.1
	08 Oct 2024 04:00	Angra	Portugal	0.1
	08 Oct 2024 04:00	Feteira	Portugal	0.1
	08 Oct 2024 04:00	Vila Nova	Portugal	0.1
	08 Oct 2024 03:00	'Companhia de Baixo'	Portugal	0.1
	08 Oct 2024 03:00	'Lajes'	Portugal	0.1
	08 Oct 2024 04:00	Baia da Vila	Portugal	0.1
	08 Oct 2024 04:00	Praia da Vitoria	Portugal	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.