Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for PRISCILLA-25 in Mexico on 04 Oct 2025 21:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for PRISCILLA-25

in Mexico

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone PRISCILLA-25 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Mexico
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	176 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (08 Oct 21:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Level), 1.5 (ORANGE Level), 2.5 (RED Level)
For more info on GDACS core click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	157 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	176 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

157 km/h Current Max.

Up to no people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Level	N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
	1	04 Oct 2025 21:00	157	90 thousand	No people	Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)
1	04 Oct 2025 21:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	15.5, -106.6
1	05 Oct 2025 06:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	15.8, -106.8
1	05 Oct 2025 18:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	88000 people	16.3, -106.9
1	06 Oct 2025 06:00	Category 1	120	no people	89000 people	17, -107.3
1	06 Oct 2025 18:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	17.8, -108.2
1	07 Oct 2025 06:00	Category 1	148	no people	no people	18.8, -109.4
1	07 Oct 2025 18:00	Category 2	157	no people	no people	19.7, -110.7
1	08 Oct 2025 18:00	Category 1	148	no people	no people	21.7, -113.3
1	09 Oct 2025 18:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	24.1, -115.4

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in El Guatamota, Mexico. This height is estimated for 08 Oct 2025 21:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (5 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 1 of 04 Oct 2025 21:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Level	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	08 Oct 2025 21:00	El Guatamota	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2025 02:00	Melchor Ocampo	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2025 07:00	El Golfo de Santa Clara	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2025 07:00	El Tornillal	Mexico	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 21:00	Puerto Charley	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.