Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for PRISCILLA-25 in Mexico from 04 Oct 2025 21:00 UTC to 09 Oct 2025 09:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for PRISCILLA-25

in Mexico

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone PRISCILLA-25 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Mexico
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	176 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (10 Oct 06:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Level), 1.5 (ORANGE Level), 2.5 (RED Level)
For more info on GDACS core click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	83 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	176 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

83 km/h Current Max.

Up to 280000 people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	04 Oct 2025 21:00	157	90 thousand	No people	Mexico
2	05 Oct 2025 03:00	148	Few people	No people	Mexico
3	05 Oct 2025 09:00	148	No people	No people	Mexico
4	05 Oct 2025 15:00	157	No people	No people	Mexico
5	05 Oct 2025 21:00	167	No people	No people	Mexico
6	06 Oct 2025 03:00	167	No people	No people	Mexico
7	06 Oct 2025 09:00	176	No people	No people	Mexico
8	06 Oct 2025 15:00	176	10 thousand	No people	Mexico
9	06 Oct 2025 21:00	167	20 thousand	No people	Mexico
10	07 Oct 2025 03:00	167	80 thousand	No people	Mexico
11	07 Oct 2025 09:00	176	20 thousand	No people	Mexico
12	07 Oct 2025 15:00	185	20 thousand	No people	Mexico
13	07 Oct 2025 21:00	176	20 thousand	No people	Mexico
14	08 Oct 2025 03:00	167	290 thousand	No people	Mexico
15	08 Oct 2025 09:00	157	290 thousand	No people	Mexico
16	08 Oct 2025 15:00	120	280 thousand	No people	Mexico
17	08 Oct 2025 21:00	111	280 thousand	No people	Mexico
18	09 Oct 2025 03:00	93	280 thousand	No people	Mexico
19	09 Oct 2025 09:00	83	280 thousand	No people	Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)
1	04 Oct 2025 21:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	15.5, -106.6
2	05 Oct 2025 03:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	15.6, -106.7
3	05 Oct 2025 09:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	16.1, -106.9
4	05 Oct 2025 15:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	16.4, -107.1
5	05 Oct 2025 21:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	16.4, -107.1
6	06 Oct 2025 03:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	16.7, -107.3
7	06 Oct 2025 09:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	17.2, -107.3
8	06 Oct 2025 15:00	Category 1	139	no people	3500 people	17.5, -107.4
9	06 Oct 2025 21:00	Category 1	139	no people	7400 people	18.3, -108
10	07 Oct 2025 03:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	19.1, -108.5
11	07 Oct 2025 09:00	Category 2	157	no people	no people	19.4, -109.5
12	07 Oct 2025 15:00	Category 2	176	no people	no people	19.8, -110.1
13	07 Oct 2025 21:00	Category 2	176	no people	no people	19.9, -110.8
14	08 Oct 2025 03:00	Category 2	167	no people	270000 people	20.6, -111.5
15	08 Oct 2025 09:00	Category 2	157	no people	no people	21, -112
16	08 Oct 2025 15:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	21.4, -112.5
17	08 Oct 2025 21:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	22, -113
18	09 Oct 2025 03:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	22.6, -113.6
19	09 Oct 2025 09:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	<1000 people	23.3, -114.1
19	09 Oct 2025 18:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	24.3, -114.8
19	10 Oct 2025 06:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	25.5, -115.1
19	10 Oct 2025 18:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	26.4, -115.2
19	11 Oct 2025 06:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	27, -114.9

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country	Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
Mexico	280000 people

Provinces

Region Province	Country	Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
Baja California Sur	Mexico	270000 people
Jalisco	Mexico	15000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Cabo San Lucas		139				0
Isla Socorro		100				0

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Puerto Madalena		Mexico
San Lucas		Mexico
Roca Partido Island		Mexico
Socorro Island		Mexico
El Tabaco		Mexico
Chamela		Mexico

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in San Felipe, Mexico. This height is estimated for 10 Oct 2025 06:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (39 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 19 of 09 Oct 2025 09:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Level	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	10 Oct 2025 06:00	San Felipe	Mexico	0.2
	10 Oct 2025 07:00	Boca del Melgoita	Mexico	0.2
	09 Oct 2025 19:00	Puerto Cortes	Mexico	0.2
	10 Oct 2025 06:00	Puertecitos	Mexico	0.2
	10 Oct 2025 07:00	San Juanico	Mexico	0.2
	09 Oct 2025 23:00	Cachoana	Mexico	0.2
	09 Oct 2025 19:00	Las Bocas	Mexico	0.2
	09 Oct 2025 20:00	Puerto Charley	Mexico	0.2
	10 Oct 2025 07:00	Buenaventura	Mexico	0.2
	09 Oct 2025 18:00	El Castillo	Mexico	0.2
	10 Oct 2025 07:00	Agua del Coyote	Mexico	0.2
	09 Oct 2025 21:00	Las Arenitas	Mexico	0.1
	09 Oct 2025 19:00	La Puerta	Mexico	0.1
	09 Oct 2025 19:00	Isla de Palmito del Verde	Mexico	0.1
	10 Oct 2025 08:00	El Golfo de Santa Clara	Mexico	0.1
	09 Oct 2025 17:00	Puerto Magdalena	Mexico	0.1
	09 Oct 2025 21:00	Molino	Mexico	0.1
	10 Oct 2025 04:00	San Jose	Mexico	0.1
	09 Oct 2025 19:00	Agua de las Flores	Mexico	0.1
	10 Oct 2025 07:00	El Tornillal	Mexico	0.1
	10 Oct 2025 04:00	El Guatamota	Mexico	0.1
	09 Oct 2025 21:00	Molino Lacy	Mexico	0.1
	10 Oct 2025 04:00	La Florida	Mexico	0.1
	10 Oct 2025 11:00	Estero la Bocana	Mexico	0.1
	10 Oct 2025 07:00	Las Tinajas	Mexico	0.1
	10 Oct 2025 07:00	Playa Oceano Pacifico	Mexico	0.1
	09 Oct 2025 19:00	Boca del Rio	Mexico	0.1
	09 Oct 2025 19:00	La Boca	Mexico	0.1
	10 Oct 2025 09:00	La Choya	Mexico	0.1
	10 Oct 2025 09:00	Puerto Penasco	Mexico	0.1
	10 Oct 2025 03:00	San Carlos	Mexico	0.1
	10 Oct 2025 03:00	Madero Amarillo	Mexico	0.1
	10 Oct 2025 07:00	Queretaro	Mexico	0.1
	10 Oct 2025 07:00	Santo Domingo	Mexico	0.1
	10 Oct 2025 03:00	Tastiota	Mexico	0.1
	09 Oct 2025 19:00	Quinones	Mexico	0.1
	09 Oct 2025 18:00	Altata	Mexico	0.1
	10 Oct 2025 06:00	Atanacio	Mexico	0.1
	10 Oct 2025 07:00	Adolfo Lopez Mateos	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.