Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for NARELLE-26 in Australia, Papua New Guinea from 17 Mar 2026 00:00 UTC to 28 Mar 2026 00:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for NARELLE-26

in Australia, Papua New Guinea

28 Mar 2026 00 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NARELLE-26 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Australia, Papua New Guinea
Exposed population	20 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	231 km/h
Maximum storm surge	n.a.
Vulnerability	Low (Australia)
Landfall	between 26 Mar 2026 18:00 - 27 Mar 2026 00:00 in Australia

GDACS Score

GDACS score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Level), 1.5 (ORANGE Level), 2.5 (RED Level)
For more info on GDACS core click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	65 km/h	n.a.	n.a.	0.5
Overall	231 km/h	0.0 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

65 km/h Current Max.

Up to 380000 people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	17 Mar 2026 00:00	176	70 thousand	5 thousand	Papua New Guinea, Australia
2	17 Mar 2026 12:00	213	60 thousand	10 thousand	Papua New Guinea, Australia
3	18 Mar 2026 00:00	213	70 thousand	Few people	Papua New Guinea, Australia
4	18 Mar 2026 12:00	213	240 thousand	3 thousand	Papua New Guinea, Australia
5	19 Mar 2026 00:00	222	240 thousand	10 thousand	Australia, Papua New Guinea
6	19 Mar 2026 06:00	231	250 thousand	4 thousand	Australia, Papua New Guinea
7	19 Mar 2026 12:00	231	250 thousand	3 thousand	Australia, Papua New Guinea
8	19 Mar 2026 18:00	222	90 thousand	10 thousand	Australia, Papua New Guinea
9	20 Mar 2026 00:00	194	270 thousand	10 thousand	Australia, Papua New Guinea
10	20 Mar 2026 06:00	185	90 thousand	10 thousand	Australia, Papua New Guinea
11	20 Mar 2026 12:00	157	190 thousand	4 thousand	Australia, Papua New Guinea
12	20 Mar 2026 18:00	130	130 thousand	3 thousand	Australia, Papua New Guinea
13	21 Mar 2026 00:00	157	310 thousand	4 thousand	Australia, Papua New Guinea
14	21 Mar 2026 06:00	176	210 thousand	4 thousand	Australia, Papua New Guinea
15	21 Mar 2026 12:00	194	200 thousand	8 thousand	Australia, Papua New Guinea
16	21 Mar 2026 18:00	213	150 thousand	8 thousand	Australia, Papua New Guinea
17	22 Mar 2026 00:00	213	170 thousand	8 thousand	Australia, Papua New Guinea
18	22 Mar 2026 06:00	194	200 thousand	10 thousand	Australia, Papua New Guinea
19	22 Mar 2026 12:00	185	260 thousand	20 thousand	Australia, Papua New Guinea
20	22 Mar 2026 18:00	194	350 thousand	20 thousand	Australia, Papua New Guinea
21	23 Mar 2026 00:00	194	310 thousand	20 thousand	Australia, Papua New Guinea
22	23 Mar 2026 06:00	167	360 thousand	20 thousand	Australia, Papua New Guinea
23	23 Mar 2026 12:00	176	1.9 million	70 thousand	Australia, Papua New Guinea
24	23 Mar 2026 18:00	176	2.7 million	30 thousand	Australia, Papua New Guinea
25	24 Mar 2026 00:00	176	3 million	30 thousand	Australia, Papua New Guinea
26	24 Mar 2026 06:00	176	3 million	20 thousand	Australia, Papua New Guinea
27	24 Mar 2026 12:00	185	2.9 million	40 thousand	Australia, Papua New Guinea
28	24 Mar 2026 18:00	185	2.7 million	20 thousand	Australia, Papua New Guinea
29	25 Mar 2026 00:00	185	2.7 million	10 thousand	Australia, Papua New Guinea
30	25 Mar 2026 06:00	194	2.9 million	30 thousand	Australia, Papua New Guinea
31	25 Mar 2026 12:00	213	2.7 million	40 thousand	Australia, Papua New Guinea
32	25 Mar 2026 18:00	231	2.8 million	20 thousand	Australia, Papua New Guinea
33	26 Mar 2026 00:00	222	2.8 million	20 thousand	Australia, Papua New Guinea
34	26 Mar 2026 06:00	204	440 thousand	20 thousand	Australia, Papua New Guinea
35	26 Mar 2026 12:00	213	2.8 million	20 thousand	Australia, Papua New Guinea
36	26 Mar 2026 18:00	204	2.8 million	10 thousand	Australia, Papua New Guinea
37	27 Mar 2026 00:00	185	2.8 million	20 thousand	Australia, Papua New Guinea
38	27 Mar 2026 06:00	157	2 million	20 thousand	Australia, Papua New Guinea
39	27 Mar 2026 12:00	120	2.5 million	20 thousand	Australia, Papua New Guinea
40	27 Mar 2026 18:00	74	380 thousand	20 thousand	Australia, Papua New Guinea
41	28 Mar 2026 00:00	65	380 thousand	20 thousand	Australia, Papua New Guinea

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	17 Mar 2026 00:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	6200 people	-12.3, 156.6
2	17 Mar 2026 12:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	21000 people	-12.4, 155.3
3	18 Mar 2026 00:00	Category 1	120	no people	5200 people	-12.4, 153.3
4	18 Mar 2026 12:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	-13, 150.6
5	19 Mar 2026 00:00	Category 4	213	no people	1300 people	-13.6, 147.8
6	19 Mar 2026 06:00	Category 4	231	no people	1200 people	-13.6, 146.5
7	19 Mar 2026 12:00	Category 4	231	<1000 people	6400 people	-13.6, 145.4
8	19 Mar 2026 18:00	Category 4	222	<1000 people	16000 people	-13.8, 144
9	20 Mar 2026 00:00	Category 3	194	2800 people	11000 people	-13.4, 143	Australia
10	20 Mar 2026 06:00	Category 3	185	1600 people	9500 people	-13.4, 142	Australia
11	20 Mar 2026 12:00	Category 2	157	no people	8700 people	-13.4, 140.8
12	20 Mar 2026 18:00	Category 1	120	no people	12000 people	-13.3, 139.6
13	21 Mar 2026 00:00	Category 1	130	<1000 people	19000 people	-12.9, 138.8
14	21 Mar 2026 06:00	Category 1	148	<1000 people	21000 people	-13, 137.8
15	21 Mar 2026 12:00	Category 1	148	1500 people	26000 people	-13.1, 136.8
16	21 Mar 2026 18:00	Category 1	139	3100 people	15000 people	-13.6, 135.7	Australia
17	22 Mar 2026 00:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	28000 people	-13.6, 134.1	Australia
18	22 Mar 2026 06:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	31000 people	-13.8, 132.9	Australia
19	22 Mar 2026 12:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	91000 people	-14.1, 131.5	Australia
20	22 Mar 2026 18:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	23000 people	-14.3, 130.1	Australia
21	23 Mar 2026 00:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	15000 people	-14.5, 129.2	Australia
22	23 Mar 2026 06:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	14000 people	-14.7, 128.1	Australia
23	23 Mar 2026 12:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	17000 people	-15.1, 126.8	Australia
24	23 Mar 2026 18:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	27000 people	-15.5, 125.8	Australia
25	24 Mar 2026 00:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	25000 people	-15.8, 124.8	Australia
26	24 Mar 2026 06:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	25000 people	-16, 123.4
27	24 Mar 2026 12:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	24000 people	-16.4, 122.4
28	24 Mar 2026 18:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	18000 people	-17, 121.5
29	25 Mar 2026 00:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	26000 people	-17.4, 120
30	25 Mar 2026 06:00	Category 1	130	no people	67000 people	-17.8, 119
31	25 Mar 2026 12:00	Category 2	167	no people	73000 people	-17.9, 117.9
32	25 Mar 2026 18:00	Category 3	194	no people	76000 people	-18.3, 117.2
33	26 Mar 2026 00:00	Category 3	194	1300 people	51000 people	-18.9, 116.3
34	26 Mar 2026 06:00	Category 3	204	5400 people	76000 people	-19.6, 115.4
35	26 Mar 2026 12:00	Category 4	213	6000 people	56000 people	-20.4, 114.6
36	26 Mar 2026 18:00	Category 3	204	3000 people	56000 people	-21.1, 114
37	27 Mar 2026 00:00	Category 3	185	8300 people	14000 people	-22.4, 113.6	Australia
38	27 Mar 2026 06:00	Category 2	157	5500 people	66000 people	-23.6, 113.7	Australia
39	27 Mar 2026 12:00	Category 1	120	3200 people	83000 people	-25.4, 114.2	Australia
40	27 Mar 2026 18:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	85000 people	-27.1, 115.3	Australia
41	28 Mar 2026 00:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	26000 people	-30, 117.2	Australia
41	28 Mar 2026 12:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	-34.6, 120.6

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country	Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
Australia	320000 people
Papua New Guinea	5200 people

Provinces

Region Province	Country	Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
Western Australia	Australia	170000 people
Northern Territory	Australia	140000 people
Queensland	Australia	16000 people
Milne Bay	Papua New Guinea	5200 people

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Corrigin	Western Australia	Australia	City	-
Geraldton	Western Australia	Australia	City	27000 people
Exmouth	Western Australia	Australia	City	-
Karratha	Western Australia	Australia	City	11000 people
Dampier	Western Australia	Australia	City	-
South Hedland	Western Australia	Australia	City	-
Wedgefield	Western Australia	Australia	City	-
Port Hedland	Western Australia	Australia	City	14000 people
Broome	Western Australia	Australia	City	13000 people
Derby	Western Australia	Australia	City	-
Darwin	Northern Territory	Australia	Major city	92000 people
Weipa	Queensland	Australia	City	-
Cooktown	Queensland	Australia	City	-

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Morawa	MWB	270	Civ.	Unpaved	Yes	3000
Cunderdin		213	Civ.	Paved	Yes	6000
Yalgoo	YLG	unknown				0
Mullewa	MXU	unknown				0
Dongara	DOX	unknown				0
Southern Cross	SQC	354	Civ.	Unpaved	Yes	3000
Geraldton	GET	37	Civ.	Paved	Yes	6400
Kalbarri	KAX	unknown				0
Shark Bay	MJK	34	Priv.	Paved	No	5500
Gascoyne Junction	GSC	unknown				0
Useless Loop	USL	unknown				0
Carnarvon	CVQ	4	Civ.	Paved	Yes	5500
Exmouth Gulf	EXM	unknown				0
Coolawanyah	COY	unknown				0
Learmonth	LEA	6	Mil.	Paved	Yes	9900
Onslow	ONS	7	Civ.	Unpaved	Yes	4400
Roebourne	RBU	unknown				0
Barrow Island	BWB	8	Civ.	Paved	Yes	6200
Karratha	KTA	9	Civ.	Paved	Yes	6000
Port Hedland	PHE	10	Civ.	Paved	Yes	8200
Broome	BME	17	Civ.	Paved	Yes	7800
Carroll		91	Civ.	Paved	Yes	10000
Derby	DRB	7	Civ.	Paved	Yes	5600
Kimberly Downs	KBD	unknown				0
Mt. House	MHO	unknown				0
Tableland	TBL	unknown				0
Mt. Barnett	MBN	unknown				0
Gibb River	GBV	509	Civ.	Unpaved	Yes	3000
Hillside	HLL	unknown				0
Argyle	GYL	159	Civ.	Paved	Yes	7500
Lissadel	LLL	unknown				0
Mitchell Plateau	MIH	unknown				0
Wyndham	WYN	4	Civ.	Unpaved	Yes	5200
Carlton Hill	CRY	unknown				0
Kununurra	KNX	44	Civ.	Paved	Yes	5900
Newry	NRY	unknown				0
Kalumburu	UBU	29	Priv.	Unpaved	No	4200
Mungalalu Truscott		53	Civ.	Paved	Yes	3000
Troughton Island		8	Mil.	Unpaved	Yes	3000
Auvergne	AVG	unknown				0
Timber Creek	TBK	unknown				0
Coolibah	COB	unknown				0
Port Keats	PKT	28	Civ.	Unpaved	No	4600
Peppimenarti	PEP	unknown				0
Daly River	DVR	unknown				0
Tindal	KTR	135	Civ.	Paved	Yes	9000
Moroak River Moroak	MRT	unknown				0
Roper Valley	RPV	unknown				0
Darwin International	DRW	31	Civ.	Paved	Yes	11000
Mountain Valley	MNV	unknown				0
Roper Bar	RPB	unknown				0
Mainoru	MIZ	unknown				0
Cooinda	CDA	13	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3000
Ngukurr	RPM	14	Civ.	Unpaved	Yes	5000
Jabiru	JAB	26	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3000
Oenpelli	OPI	9	Civ.	Unpaved	No	4300
Numbulwar	NUB	9	Civ.	Unpaved	No	4300
Maningrida	MNG	37	Civ.	Unpaved	Yes	5000
Groote Eylandt	GTE	16	Civ.	Paved	Yes	6200
Ramingining	RAM	63	Civ.	Unpaved	No	4500
Milingimbi	MGT	16	Civ.	Paved	No	4600
Baniyala	BYX	unknown				0
Lake Evella	LEL	78	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3200
Elcho Island	ELC	30	Civ.	Paved	No	4700
Nhulunbuy	GOV	54	Civ.	Paved	Yes	6700
Kowanyama	KWM	11	Civ.	Unpaved	Yes	4500
Pormpuraaw		3	Civ.	Paved	No	4400
Drumduff	DFP	unknown				0
Bulimba	BIP	unknown				0
Aurukun	AUU	9	Civ.	Unpaved	No	4100
Beagle Bay	BEE	unknown				0
Koolburra	KKP	unknown				0
Dixie	DXD	unknown				0
Rokeby	RKY	unknown				0
Laura	LUU	unknown				0
Weipa	WEI	19	Civ.	Paved	Yes	5300
Merluna	MLV	unknown				0
Scherger		44	Mil.	Paved	No	10000
Greenvale Miner Lake	GVP	unknown				0
Coen	CUQ	162	Civ.	Unpaved	Yes	3900
Kalpowar	KPP	unknown				0
Musgrave	MVU	unknown				0
Silver Plains	SSP	unknown				0
Lakefield	LFP	unknown				0
Agnew	AGW	unknown				0
Bizant	BZP	unknown				0
Laura Station	LUT	unknown				0
Moreton	MET	unknown				0
Bloomfield	BFC	unknown				0
Helenvale	HLV	unknown				0
Cooktown	CTN	8	Civ.	Paved	Yes	5300
Lockhart River	IRG	23	Civ.	Paved	Yes	4300
Hope Vale	HPE	unknown				0
Batavia Downs	BVW	unknown				0
Lizard Island	LZR	21				0
Tagula	TGL	unknown				0

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Geraldton	AUGET	Coral Sea Islands
Port Gregory		Coral Sea Islands
Bluff Point		Coral Sea Islands
Hamelin Pool		Coral Sea Islands
Mary Ann Haven		Coral Sea Islands
Useless Loop	AUUSL	Coral Sea Islands
Denham		Coral Sea Islands
Carnarvon	AUCVQ	Coral Sea Islands
Cape Cuvier		Coral Sea Islands
Maud Landing		Coral Sea Islands
Exmouth	AUPEX	Coral Sea Islands
Learmonth		Coral Sea Islands
Onslow		Coral Sea Islands
Port Exmouth		Coral Sea Islands
Saladin Marine Terminal	AUSMT	Coral Sea Islands
Airlie Island Terminal		Coral Sea Islands
Griffin Venture	AUGRV	Coral Sea Islands
Cape Preston	AUCPN	Coral Sea Islands
Barrow Island	AUBWB	Coral Sea Islands
Port Walcott	AUPWL	Coral Sea Islands
Roebourne	AURBU	Coral Sea Islands
Dampier	AUDAM	Coral Sea Islands
Point Samson	AUPSM	Coral Sea Islands
Withnell Bay		Coral Sea Islands
Varanus Island	AUVAR	Coral Sea Islands
Port Hedland	AUPHE	Coral Sea Islands
Wandoo Marine Terminal		Coral Sea Islands
Cossack Pioneer	AUCOP	Coral Sea Islands
Broome	AUBME	Coral Sea Islands
Beagle Bay		Coral Sea Islands
Derby	AUDRB	Coral Sea Islands
Cape Leveque		Coral Sea Islands
Yampi Sound		Coral Sea Islands
Yampi	AUYAM	Coral Sea Islands
Kalumburu		Coral Sea Islands
Wyndham	AUWYN	Coral Sea Islands
Cape Londonderry		Coral Sea Islands
Darwin	AUDRW	Coral Sea Islands
Milner Bay	AUMIB	Coral Sea Islands
Groote Eylandt	AUGTE	Coral Sea Islands
Gove	AUGOV	Coral Sea Islands
Cape Arnhem		Coral Sea Islands
Weipa	AUWEI	Coral Sea Islands
Port Stewart		Coral Sea Islands
Cooktown	AUCTN	Coral Sea Islands
Cape Flattery	AUCQP	Coral Sea Islands
Rossel Island		Papua New Guinea

Dams

Reservoir	Dam Name	River	Year
Poongkaliyarra	Harding	Harding	1985
Argyle	Ord River	Ord	1971
	Darwin River Dam	Darwin	1972
	Manton Dam	Manton	1942

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Disclaimer - Copyright
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.