Overall Red Tropical Cyclone for BAVI-26 in Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Taiwan, China from 01 Jul 2026 00:00 UTC to 02 Jul 2026 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red Tropical Cyclone for BAVI-26

in Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Taiwan, China

02 Jul 2026 18 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BAVI-26 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Glide number:	TC-2026-000099-CHN
Exposed countries	Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Taiwan, China
Exposed population	35.3 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	287 km/h
Maximum storm surge
Vulnerability	Medium (China)

GDACS Score

GDACS score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Level), 1.5 (ORANGE Level), 2.5 (RED Level)
For more info on GDACS core click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	269 km/h	0.0 m	n.a.	2.5
Overall	287 km/h	0.0 m	n.a.	2.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

269 km/h Current Max.

Up to 50000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	01 Jul 2026 00:00	185	230 thousand	50 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands
2	01 Jul 2026 06:00	213	230 thousand	60 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
3	01 Jul 2026 12:00	231	230 thousand	50 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands
4	01 Jul 2026 18:00	241	230 thousand	50 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands
5	02 Jul 2026 00:00	259	230 thousand	50 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands
6	02 Jul 2026 06:00	250	230 thousand	50 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands
7	02 Jul 2026 12:00	250	230 thousand	50 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands
8	02 Jul 2026 18:00	269	230 thousand	50 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)
1	01 Jul 2026 00:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	8.7, 163.3
2	01 Jul 2026 06:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	9.2, 163
3	01 Jul 2026 12:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	9.8, 162.3
4	01 Jul 2026 18:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	10.5, 161.4
5	02 Jul 2026 00:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	10.9, 160.2
6	02 Jul 2026 06:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	11.7, 159
7	02 Jul 2026 12:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	12.3, 158
8	02 Jul 2026 18:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	12.6, 156.6
8	03 Jul 2026 06:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	12.9, 154.5
8	03 Jul 2026 18:00	Category 3	194	no people	no people	12.9, 152.8
8	04 Jul 2026 06:00	Category 4	231	no people	no people	13, 151.3
8	04 Jul 2026 18:00	Category 5	259	no people	50000 people	13.3, 149.9
8	05 Jul 2026 06:00	Category 5	269	48000 people	230000 people	13.9, 148.3
8	05 Jul 2026 18:00	Category 5	259	50000 people	230000 people	14.6, 146.2
8	06 Jul 2026 18:00	Category 5	259	no people	230000 people	16.1, 141.9
8	07 Jul 2026 18:00	Category 5	259	no people	no people	17.5, 136.4

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country	Population in Category 1 or higher strength
Northern Mariana Is.	42000 people

Provinces

Region Province	Country	Population in Category 1 or higher strength
Northern Mariana Is.	Northern Mariana Islands	42000 people

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Saipan		Northern Mariana Islands	Capital	62000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Nikko		18				0
Saipan International	SPN	66	Civ.	Paved	Yes	8700
Commonwealth Health Center		5				0
Dynasty		46				0
West Tinian	TIQ	82	Civ.	Paved	Yes	5900
Rota I International	ROP	185	Civ.	Paved	Yes	6000

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Saipan	MPSPN	Northern Mariana Islands
Tinian		Northern Mariana Islands
Rota		Northern Mariana Islands

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (0 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 2 of 01 Jul 2026 06:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Level

Date (UTC)

Name

Country

Storm surge height (m)

Disclaimer - Copyright
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.