Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone for DOLPHIN-26 in Marshall Islands, Japan, China from 27 Jul 2026 00:00 UTC to 06 Aug 2026 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone for DOLPHIN-26

in Marshall Islands, Japan, China

06 Aug 2026 06 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone DOLPHIN-26 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Glide number:	TC-2026-000144-JPN
Exposed countries	Marshall Islands, Japan, China
Exposed population	14.1 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	269 km/h
Maximum storm surge
Vulnerability	High (Marshall Is.)
Landfall	between 09 Aug 2026 06:00 - 10 Aug 2026 06:00 in China

GDACS Score

GDACS score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Level), 1.5 (ORANGE Level), 2.5 (RED Level)
For more info on GDACS core click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	148 km/h	0.0 m	n.a.	1.5
Overall	269 km/h	0.0 m	n.a.	1.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

148 km/h Current Max.

Up to 16.9 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	27 Jul 2026 00:00	250	No people	No people	Marshall Islands
2	27 Jul 2026 06:00	259	No people	No people	Marshall Islands
3	27 Jul 2026 12:00	259	No people	No people	Marshall Islands
4	27 Jul 2026 18:00	269	Few people	No people	Marshall Islands
5	28 Jul 2026 00:00	269	Few people	No people	Marshall Islands
6	28 Jul 2026 06:00	278	Few people	No people	Marshall Islands
7	28 Jul 2026 12:00	306	Few people	No people	Marshall Islands
8	28 Jul 2026 18:00	287	Few people	No people	Marshall Islands
9	29 Jul 2026 00:00	278	Few people	No people	Marshall Islands
10	29 Jul 2026 06:00	278	Few people	No people	Marshall Islands
11	29 Jul 2026 12:00	287	Few people	No people	Marshall Islands
12	29 Jul 2026 18:00	287	1 thousand	No people	Marshall Islands
13	30 Jul 2026 00:00	269	3 thousand	2 thousand	Marshall Islands
14	30 Jul 2026 06:00	269	3 thousand	2 thousand	Marshall Islands
15	30 Jul 2026 12:00	241	3 thousand	2 thousand	Marshall Islands
16	30 Jul 2026 18:00	250	3 thousand	2 thousand	Marshall Islands
17	31 Jul 2026 00:00	250	3 thousand	3 thousand	Marshall Islands
18	31 Jul 2026 06:00	259	3 thousand	2 thousand	Marshall Islands
19	31 Jul 2026 12:00	241	6 thousand	2 thousand	Marshall Islands
20	31 Jul 2026 18:00	241	6 thousand	2 thousand	Marshall Islands
21	01 Aug 2026 00:00	241	90 thousand	2 thousand	Marshall Islands
22	01 Aug 2026 06:00	222	1.5 million	4 thousand	Marshall Islands
23	01 Aug 2026 12:00	222	1.6 million	4 thousand	Marshall Islands
24	01 Aug 2026 18:00	231	1.5 million	4 thousand	Marshall Islands
25	02 Aug 2026 00:00	231	1.7 million	1.4 million	Marshall Islands, Japan
26	02 Aug 2026 06:00	222	2.6 million	1.5 million	Marshall Islands, Japan
27	02 Aug 2026 12:00	204	12.8 million	1.5 million	Marshall Islands, Japan
28	02 Aug 2026 18:00	194	2.8 million	1.4 million	Marshall Islands, Japan
29	03 Aug 2026 00:00	185	15.6 million	1.4 million	Marshall Islands, Japan
30	03 Aug 2026 06:00	176	18.2 million	1.4 million	Marshall Islands, Japan
31	03 Aug 2026 12:00	167	47.5 million	1.4 million	Marshall Islands, Japan
32	03 Aug 2026 18:00	176	113.7 million	1.4 million	Marshall Islands, Japan
33	04 Aug 2026 00:00	204	38.2 million	1.4 million	Marshall Islands, Japan
34	04 Aug 2026 06:00	185	138.9 million	1.4 million	Marshall Islands, Japan
35	04 Aug 2026 12:00	185	135.8 million	1.4 million	Marshall Islands, Japan
36	04 Aug 2026 18:00	185	176.6 million	14.9 million	Marshall Islands, Japan, China
37	05 Aug 2026 00:00	157	128.9 million	7.2 million	Marshall Islands, Japan, China
38	05 Aug 2026 06:00	167	226.4 million	24.9 million	Marshall Islands, Japan, China
39	05 Aug 2026 12:00	148	261 million	32.8 million	Marshall Islands, Japan, China
40	05 Aug 2026 18:00	139	403.8 million	19 million	Marshall Islands, Japan, China
41	06 Aug 2026 00:00	139	165.7 million	20.1 million	Marshall Islands, Japan, China
42	06 Aug 2026 06:00	148	166.5 million	16.9 million	Marshall Islands, Japan, China

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	27 Jul 2026 00:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	12.8, 178.3
2	27 Jul 2026 06:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	13.4, 176.7
3	27 Jul 2026 12:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	13.6, 175.2
4	27 Jul 2026 18:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	13.2, 173.7
5	28 Jul 2026 00:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	13, 172.8
6	28 Jul 2026 06:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	13.3, 171.7
7	28 Jul 2026 12:00	Category 3	185	no people	no people	13.4, 170.7
8	28 Jul 2026 18:00	Category 4	231	no people	no people	13.7, 169.9
9	29 Jul 2026 00:00	Category 4	222	no people	no people	14.1, 169.1
10	29 Jul 2026 06:00	Category 4	222	no people	no people	14.5, 168.4
11	29 Jul 2026 12:00	Category 4	241	no people	no people	15.2, 167.7
12	29 Jul 2026 18:00	Category 5	269	no people	no people	15.8, 166.8
13	30 Jul 2026 00:00	Category 5	259	no people	no people	16.4, 165.7
14	30 Jul 2026 06:00	Category 5	259	no people	no people	16.9, 164.9
15	30 Jul 2026 12:00	Category 4	241	no people	no people	17.5, 163.9
16	30 Jul 2026 18:00	Category 4	250	no people	no people	17.9, 162.9
17	31 Jul 2026 00:00	Category 4	250	no people	no people	18.3, 161.9
18	31 Jul 2026 06:00	Category 5	259	no people	no people	18.6, 161
19	31 Jul 2026 12:00	Category 4	241	no people	no people	19.1, 160.1
20	31 Jul 2026 18:00	Category 4	231	no people	no people	19.8, 159.1
21	01 Aug 2026 00:00	Category 4	231	no people	no people	20.2, 158.3
22	01 Aug 2026 06:00	Category 4	222	no people	<1000 people	20.8, 157.5
23	01 Aug 2026 12:00	Category 4	222	no people	<1000 people	21.6, 156.2
24	01 Aug 2026 18:00	Category 4	231	no people	<1000 people	22.1, 154.9
25	02 Aug 2026 00:00	Category 4	231	no people	<1000 people	22.7, 153.5
26	02 Aug 2026 06:00	Category 4	222	no people	<1000 people	23.2, 152.2
27	02 Aug 2026 12:00	Category 3	204	no people	<1000 people	23.6, 150.9
28	02 Aug 2026 18:00	Category 3	194	no people	no people	24, 149.4
29	03 Aug 2026 00:00	Category 3	185	no people	<1000 people	24.4, 148.4
30	03 Aug 2026 06:00	Category 2	176	no people	3100 people	25, 147.1
31	03 Aug 2026 12:00	Category 2	167	no people	3100 people	25, 145.7
32	03 Aug 2026 18:00	Category 2	176	2200 people	3100 people	25.1, 144.2
33	04 Aug 2026 00:00	Category 3	185	2100 people	3100 people	25.1, 143.2
34	04 Aug 2026 06:00	Category 4	213	2200 people	3100 people	25.3, 141.9
35	04 Aug 2026 12:00	Category 3	204	2100 people	3100 people	25.2, 140.6
36	04 Aug 2026 18:00	Category 3	194	no people	3100 people	25.3, 139.3
37	05 Aug 2026 00:00	Category 3	185	no people	5400 people	25.4, 138.3
38	05 Aug 2026 06:00	Category 2	176	no people	4400 people	25.6, 137.2
39	05 Aug 2026 12:00	Category 2	167	no people	13000 people	25.9, 136.2
40	05 Aug 2026 18:00	Category 1	148	2300 people	1.3 million people	26.3, 135
41	06 Aug 2026 00:00	Category 1	148	2300 people	1.5 million people	26.2, 133.5
42	06 Aug 2026 06:00	Category 1	148	2300 people	1.6 million people	26.6, 132.6
42	06 Aug 2026 18:00	Category 1	148	1.4 million people	1.7 million people	27, 130.3
42	07 Aug 2026 06:00	Category 1	148	1.4 million people	2.1 million people	27.2, 128.1
42	07 Aug 2026 18:00	Category 1	148	240000 people	43 million people	27.2, 126.4
42	08 Aug 2026 06:00	Category 1	148	no people	66.5 million people	27.2, 124.7
42	08 Aug 2026 18:00	Category 1	148	610000 people	126 million people	27.3, 123.5
42	09 Aug 2026 06:00	Category 1	139	15.4 million people	133.3 million people	27.5, 122.1
42	10 Aug 2026 06:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	95.7 million people	28.2, 119.4	China
42	11 Aug 2026 06:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	30.2, 116.4	China

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country	Population in Category 1 or higher strength
Japan	1.1 million people
China	14.1 million people

Provinces

Region Province	Country	Population in Category 1 or higher strength
Kyushu	Japan	21000 people
Okinawa	Japan	1.1 million people
Zhejiang	China	13.6 million people
Fujian	China	420000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Kitadaito	KTD	24	Civ.	Paved	Yes	4900
Minami Daito	MMD	4	Civ.	Paved	Yes	4900
Tokunoshima	TKN	5	Civ.	Paved	Yes	6500
Okierabu	OKE	31	Civ.	Paved	Yes	3900
Yoron	RNJ	16	Civ.	Paved	Yes	3900
Ie Jima	IEJ	75	Civ.	Paved	No	4900
Kadena AB	DNA	45	Mil.	Paved	Yes	12100
Futenma Mcas		75	Mil.	Paved	Yes	9000
Naha	OKA	5	Civ.	Paved	Yes	9800
Kumejima	UEO	7	Civ.	Paved	Yes	6500
Iwo To (Iwo Jima)	IWO	113	Mil.	Paved	Yes	8700
Luqiaq	HYN	9				0
Wenzhou	WNZ	4				0

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Kita		Japan
Oku		Japan
Kin Wan	JPKIN	Japan
Nakagusuku Wan		Japan
Heianza	JPHEI	Japan
Nishihara	JPNHR	Japan
Naha	JPNAH	Japan
Kume Island		Japan
Iwo Jima		Japan
Minami Lo		Japan
Haha		Japan
Kan Men Chiang		China
Wenzhou	CNWNZ	China
Jui An		China
Ku Ao Tou		China
Taongi Island		Marshall Islands

Dams

Reservoir	Dam Name	River	Year
Kannako	Kanna	Kannafukujigawa	1993
	Okukubi	Okukubigawa	2001
Zukeyama	Kurashiki	Yonabarugawa	1995
	Human	Trib. Jiao Jiang	n/a
	Taihu	Trib. Jiao Jiang	1962
	Fuxi	Dajinxi	1979
	Changtan	Huangyanxi	1961
	Zhongqian	Baishixi	1960
	Baishi	Baishixi	1958
	Wujiayuan	Zaoxi	1962
	Qiaodun	Ao Jiang	1973
	Jinkeng		n/a
	Nanxi	Nanxi	1981
	Shanxi	Feiyun	2001
	Tankeng	Xiaoxi	2008
	Baizhanggji	Feiyun Jiang	1960
	Shitang	Ou Jiang	n/a
	Yuankou	Wuyi Jiang	n/a
	Jinshuitan	Longquanxi	1989
	Chengping 2		n/a
	Chengping 1		n/a
	Muceng	Lingshangang	2009

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (0 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 6 of 28 Jul 2026 06:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Level

Date (UTC)

Name

Country

Storm surge height (m)

Disclaimer - Copyright
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.