Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone for SAUDEL-26 in Japan, China, Northern Mariana Islands from 18 Aug 2026 12:00 UTC to 03 Sep 2026 00:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone for SAUDEL-26

in Japan, China, Northern Mariana Islands

03 Sep 2026 00 UTC

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone SAUDEL-26 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Japan, China, Northern Mariana Islands
Exposed population	13.1 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	213 km/h
Maximum storm surge	2.7 m (27 Aug 23:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (China)
Landfall	between 02 Sep 2026 18:00 - 03 Sep 2026 00:00 in China

GDACS Score

GDACS score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Level), 1.5 (ORANGE Level), 2.5 (RED Level)
For more info on GDACS core click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	74 km/h	2.7 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	213 km/h	2.7 m	n.a.	1.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

74 km/h Current Max.

Up to 155.3 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	18 Aug 2026 12:00	222	50 thousand	No people	Northern Mariana Islands
2	18 Aug 2026 18:00	231	No people	No people
3	19 Aug 2026 00:00	231	50 thousand	No people	Northern Mariana Islands
4	19 Aug 2026 06:00	231	30 thousand	No people	Northern Mariana Islands
5	19 Aug 2026 12:00	231	No people	No people
6	19 Aug 2026 18:00	231	No people	No people
7	20 Aug 2026 00:00	222	50 thousand	No people	Northern Mariana Islands
8	20 Aug 2026 06:00	222	50 thousand	No people	Northern Mariana Islands
9	20 Aug 2026 12:00	222	170 thousand	2 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands, Japan
10	20 Aug 2026 18:00	222	1.5 million	2 thousand	Japan
11	21 Aug 2026 00:00	222	1.5 million	160 thousand	Japan
12	21 Aug 2026 06:00	222	1.5 million	180 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands, Japan
13	21 Aug 2026 12:00	194	1.5 million	1.3 million	Northern Mariana Islands, Japan
14	21 Aug 2026 18:00	185	1.5 million	1.3 million	Northern Mariana Islands, Japan
15	22 Aug 2026 00:00	204	1.6 million	1.4 million	Northern Mariana Islands, Japan
16	22 Aug 2026 06:00	194	1.6 million	1.4 million	Northern Mariana Islands, Japan
17	22 Aug 2026 12:00	194	1.6 million	1.4 million	Northern Mariana Islands, Japan
18	22 Aug 2026 18:00	231	1.7 million	1.4 million	Northern Mariana Islands, Japan
19	23 Aug 2026 00:00	185	1.5 million	600 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands, Japan
20	23 Aug 2026 06:00	204	46.9 million	330 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands, Japan
21	23 Aug 2026 12:00	139	59.7 million	6.8 million	Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, China
22	23 Aug 2026 18:00	139	55.2 million	6.7 million	Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, China
23	24 Aug 2026 00:00	139	64.5 million	6.9 million	Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, China
24	24 Aug 2026 06:00	148	48.5 million	3.5 million	Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, China
25	24 Aug 2026 12:00	130	47.3 million	7.6 million	Japan, Northern Mariana Islands, China
26	24 Aug 2026 18:00	120	48.1 million	4.7 million	Japan, Northern Mariana Islands, China
27	25 Aug 2026 00:00	167	41.3 million	150 thousand	Japan, Northern Mariana Islands, China
28	25 Aug 2026 06:00	148	34 million	70 thousand	Japan, Northern Mariana Islands
29	25 Aug 2026 12:00	120	36.7 million	5.4 million	Japan, Northern Mariana Islands, China
30	25 Aug 2026 18:00	148	30.2 million	280 thousand	Japan, Northern Mariana Islands
31	26 Aug 2026 00:00	139	27.9 million	280 thousand	Japan, Northern Mariana Islands
32	26 Aug 2026 06:00	120	48.2 million	7.7 million	Japan, Northern Mariana Islands, China
33	26 Aug 2026 12:00	130	48.3 million	5.1 million	Japan, China, Northern Mariana Islands
34	26 Aug 2026 18:00	120	83.3 million	13.9 million	Japan, China, Northern Mariana Islands
35	27 Aug 2026 00:00	130	54.5 million	5.7 million	Japan, China, Northern Mariana Islands
36	27 Aug 2026 06:00	130	65.5 million	11.5 million	Japan, China, Northern Mariana Islands
37	27 Aug 2026 12:00	139	31.2 million	11.1 million	Japan, China, Northern Mariana Islands
38	27 Aug 2026 18:00	130	35.7 million	14.7 million	Japan, China, Northern Mariana Islands
39	28 Aug 2026 00:00	102	61.3 million	13.1 million	Japan, China, Northern Mariana Islands
40	01 Sep 2026 06:00	65	171 million	13.1 million	Japan, China, Northern Mariana Islands
41	01 Sep 2026 12:00	65	155.3 million	13.1 million	Japan, China, Northern Mariana Islands
42	01 Sep 2026 18:00	56	155.3 million	13.1 million	Japan, China, Northern Mariana Islands
43	02 Sep 2026 00:00	56	155.3 million	13.1 million	Japan, China, Northern Mariana Islands
44	02 Sep 2026 06:00	56	155.3 million	13.1 million	Japan, China, Northern Mariana Islands
45	02 Sep 2026 12:00	56	155.3 million	13.1 million	Japan, China, Northern Mariana Islands
46	02 Sep 2026 18:00	65	155.3 million	13.1 million	Japan, China, Northern Mariana Islands
47	03 Sep 2026 00:00	74	155.3 million	13.1 million	Japan, China, Northern Mariana Islands

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	18 Aug 2026 12:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	7.9, 154.9
2	18 Aug 2026 18:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	8.3, 154.6
3	19 Aug 2026 00:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	<1000 people	8, 154.2
4	19 Aug 2026 06:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	<1000 people	8.5, 154.1
5	19 Aug 2026 12:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	9.4, 153.7
6	19 Aug 2026 18:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	10.5, 152.8
7	20 Aug 2026 00:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	11.4, 151.6
8	20 Aug 2026 06:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	11.9, 150.9
9	20 Aug 2026 12:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	12.8, 150.2
10	20 Aug 2026 18:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	13.7, 149.6
11	21 Aug 2026 00:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	14.7, 149
12	21 Aug 2026 06:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	45000 people	14.9, 148.5
13	21 Aug 2026 12:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	16, 148.1
14	21 Aug 2026 18:00	Category 1	148	no people	no people	17.1, 147.3
15	22 Aug 2026 00:00	Category 2	157	no people	no people	17.9, 146.5
16	22 Aug 2026 06:00	Category 2	176	no people	no people	18.6, 145.8
17	22 Aug 2026 12:00	Category 3	194	no people	no people	19.6, 144.8
18	22 Aug 2026 18:00	Category 4	213	no people	no people	20.4, 143.6
19	23 Aug 2026 00:00	Category 3	204	no people	no people	21, 142.3
20	23 Aug 2026 06:00	Category 3	204	no people	no people	21.9, 140.9
21	23 Aug 2026 12:00	Category 3	204	no people	2100 people	22.6, 139.4
22	23 Aug 2026 18:00	Category 3	204	no people	no people	23.2, 137.9
23	24 Aug 2026 00:00	Category 3	204	no people	2300 people	23.9, 136.3
24	24 Aug 2026 06:00	Category 3	194	2300 people	2300 people	24.5, 134.7
25	24 Aug 2026 12:00	Category 3	185	2300 people	110000 people	24.9, 133.5
26	24 Aug 2026 18:00	Category 2	176	2300 people	1.5 million people	25.6, 132.3
27	25 Aug 2026 00:00	Category 2	167	47000 people	1.5 million people	26, 131.1
28	25 Aug 2026 06:00	Category 1	148	71000 people	1.5 million people	26.8, 130.1
29	25 Aug 2026 12:00	Category 2	157	220000 people	1.5 million people	27.2, 129
30	25 Aug 2026 18:00	Category 1	148	180000 people	1.5 million people	27.5, 128.1
31	26 Aug 2026 00:00	Category 1	139	3300 people	1.5 million people	27.8, 127.3
32	26 Aug 2026 06:00	Category 2	157	no people	1.5 million people	28.3, 126.5
33	26 Aug 2026 12:00	Category 1	148	no people	1.5 million people	28.6, 125.9
34	26 Aug 2026 18:00	Category 1	139	no people	18 million people	28.6, 125.3
35	27 Aug 2026 00:00	Category 1	139	no people	15.5 million people	28.5, 124.9
36	27 Aug 2026 06:00	Category 1	148	<1000 people	35.4 million people	28.4, 124.2
37	27 Aug 2026 12:00	Category 1	139	10.9 million people	19 million people	28.2, 123.5
38	27 Aug 2026 18:00	Category 1	130	14.4 million people	29.9 million people	28.1, 122.6
39	28 Aug 2026 00:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	59.7 million people	28.1, 121	China
40	01 Sep 2026 06:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	12.4 million people	20, 114.4
41	01 Sep 2026 12:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	31.8 million people	20.8, 115.7
42	01 Sep 2026 18:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	21.4, 116.3
43	02 Sep 2026 00:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	22.1, 116.7
44	02 Sep 2026 06:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	22.3, 117.4
45	02 Sep 2026 12:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	22.9, 117.9
46	02 Sep 2026 18:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	4.7 million people	23.4, 118.4
47	03 Sep 2026 00:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	15.1 million people	23.8, 117.4	China
47	03 Sep 2026 12:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	24, 116.2	China
47	04 Sep 2026 00:00	Tropical depression	37	no people	no people	23.9, 114.9	China

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Nuclear Facilities

Site Name	Type	Name	Country
Site-Zhangzho	Nuclear Power Reactor	Zhangzhou-1	China
Site-Fuqing	Nuclear Power Reactor	Fuqing-2	China
Site-Fuqing	Nuclear Power Reactor	Fuqing-6	China
Site-Fuqing	Nuclear Power Reactor	Fuqing-3	China
Site-Fuqing	Nuclear Power Reactor	Fuqing-1	China
Site-Fuqing	Nuclear Power Reactor	Fuqing-4	China
Site-Fuqing	Nuclear Power Reactor	Fuqing-5	China
Site-Fuzhou	Nuclear Fuel Cycle	Fuzhou	China
Site-Shenzen	Nuclear Power Reactor	Ling Ao-2	China
Site-Shenzen	Nuclear Power Reactor	Ling Ao-4	China
Site-Shenzen	Nuclear Power Reactor	Ling Ao-1	China
Site-Shenzen	Nuclear Power Reactor	Ling Ao-3	China
Site-Shenzhen city	Nuclear Power Reactor	Daya Bay-1	China
Site-Shenzhen city	Nuclear Power Reactor	Daya Bay-2	China
Site-Shenzhen city	Research reactor	MNSR-SZ	China
Site-Hsinchu City	Research reactor	THOR	Taiwan
Site-Shimen Xiang	Nuclear Power Reactor	Chinshan-1	Taiwan
Site-Shimen Xiang	Nuclear Power Reactor	Chinshan-2	Taiwan
Site-Kuosheng	Nuclear Power Reactor	Kuosheng-2	Taiwan
Site-Kuosheng	Nuclear Power Reactor	Kuosheng-1	Taiwan
Site-Beiwan	Nuclear Power Reactor	Nindge-4	China
Site-Beiwan	Nuclear Power Reactor	Nindge-2	China
Site-Beiwan	Nuclear Power Reactor	Nindge-1	China
Site-Beiwan	Nuclear Power Reactor	Nindge-3	China
Site-Taizhou	Nuclear Power Reactor	Sanmen-1	China
Site-Taizhou	Nuclear Power Reactor	Sanmen-2	China

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

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