Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FRANCISCO-13
in Japan, Guam
25 Oct 2013 18 UTC
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  • JRC
Impact Single TC
    Impact based on all weather systems in the area

    Impact

      Tropical Cyclone FRANCISCO-13 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

      Meteorological source GDACS
      Exposed countries Japan, Guam
      Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
      Maximum wind speed 269 km/h
      Maximum storm surge 0.1 m (24 Oct 12:00 UTC)
      Vulnerability Medium (Japan)

      GDACS Score

      GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
      For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
        Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
      Current 84 km/h 0.1 m n.a. 0.5
      Overall 269 km/h 0.1 m n.a. 0.5

      Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

      TOP

      Wind

        84 km/h Current Max.

        Up to 1.5 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

        Impact Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
          Tropical Storm or higher          		 Population in
          Cat 1. or higher          		 Countries
          Green 1 16 Oct 2013 00:00 195 No people No people
          Green 2 16 Oct 2013 06:00 204 No people No people
          Green 3 16 Oct 2013 12:00 212 No people No people
          Green 4 16 Oct 2013 18:00 232 No people No people Guam
          Green 5 17 Oct 2013 00:00 232 No people No people Guam
          Green 6 17 Oct 2013 06:00 232 No people No people Guam
          Green 7 17 Oct 2013 12:00 232 No people No people Guam
          Green 8 17 Oct 2013 18:00 249 No people No people Guam
          Green 9 18 Oct 2013 00:00 249 No people No people
          Green 10 18 Oct 2013 06:00 249 No people No people
          Green 11 18 Oct 2013 12:00 249 No people No people
          Green 12 18 Oct 2013 18:00 259 No people No people
          Green 13 19 Oct 2013 00:00 259 No people No people
          Green 14 19 Oct 2013 06:00 269 No people No people
          Green 15 19 Oct 2013 12:00 269 No people No people
          Green 16 19 Oct 2013 18:00 269 No people No people Japan
          Green 17 20 Oct 2013 00:00 259 No people No people Japan
          Green 18 20 Oct 2013 06:00 259 No people No people Japan
          Green 19 20 Oct 2013 12:00 232 No people No people Japan
          Green 20 20 Oct 2013 18:00 212 No people 31.2 million Japan
          Green 21 21 Oct 2013 00:00 195 No people No people Japan
          Green 22 21 Oct 2013 06:00 175 No people No people Japan
          Green 23 21 Oct 2013 12:00 167 No people No people Japan
          Green 24 21 Oct 2013 18:00 158 No people No people Japan
          Green 25 22 Oct 2013 00:00 138 No people No people Japan
          Green 26 22 Oct 2013 00:00 138 No people No people Japan
          Green 27 22 Oct 2013 12:00 138 No people No people
          Green 28 22 Oct 2013 18:00 130 No people No people Japan
          Green 29 23 Oct 2013 00:00 130 No people No people Japan
          Green 30 23 Oct 2013 06:00 130 No people No people Japan
          Green 31 23 Oct 2013 12:00 121 No people No people Japan
          Green 32 23 Oct 2013 18:00 121 No people No people Japan
          Green 33 24 Oct 2013 00:00 121 No people No people Japan
          Green 34 24 Oct 2013 06:00 111 No people No people Japan
          Green 35 24 Oct 2013 12:00 111 No people No people Japan
          Green 36 24 Oct 2013 18:00 111 No people No people Japan
          Green 37 25 Oct 2013 00:00 111 No people No people
          Green 38 25 Oct 2013 06:00 93 No people No people
          Green 39 25 Oct 2013 12:00 84 No people No people
          Green 40 25 Oct 2013 18:00 84 No people No people

          Bulletin Timeline

            Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
            (SSHS)             		Max winds
            (km/h)             		Population in
            Cat.1 or higher             		Population in
            Tropical Storm
            or higher             		Location (lat, lon) Countries
            green
            		 1 10/16/2013 Tropical depression 47 no people no people 12.7, 145.2 Guam
            green
            		 2 10/16/2013 6:00:00 AM Tropical depression 56 no people no people 12.4, 144.4 Guam
            green
            		 3 10/16/2013 12:00:00 PM Tropical storm 64 no people no people 11.4, 143.3
            green
            		 4 10/16/2013 6:00:00 PM Tropical storm 111 no people no people 11.1, 143
            green
            		 5 10/17/2013 Category 1 130 no people no people 11, 142.8
            green
            		 6 10/17/2013 6:00:00 AM Category 1 138 no people 20000 people 11.4, 142.7 Guam
            green
            		 7 10/17/2013 12:00:00 PM Category 2 158 no people 170000 people 12.1, 143 Guam
            green
            		 8 10/17/2013 6:00:00 PM Category 3 204 no people 170000 people 13.2, 142.8 Guam
            green
            		 9 10/18/2013 Category 4 222 no people no people 13.8, 142.3
            green
            		 10 10/18/2013 6:00:00 AM Category 4 232 no people no people 14.2, 142
            green
            		 11 10/18/2013 12:00:00 PM Category 4 232 no people no people 15.2, 141.8
            green
            		 12 10/18/2013 6:00:00 PM Category 4 249 no people no people 15.9, 141.1
            green
            		 13 10/19/2013 Category 4 249 no people no people 16.2, 140.4
            green
            		 14 10/19/2013 6:00:00 AM Category 5 259 no people no people 16.7, 139.7
            green
            		 15 10/19/2013 12:00:00 PM Category 5 259 no people no people 17.1, 139.1
            green
            		 16 10/19/2013 6:00:00 PM Category 5 259 no people no people 17.4, 138.4
            green
            		 17 10/20/2013 Category 5 259 no people no people 17.7, 137.7
            green
            		 18 10/20/2013 6:00:00 AM Category 5 259 no people no people 18.4, 137.3
            green
            		 19 10/20/2013 12:00:00 PM Category 4 232 no people no people 18.7, 136.9
            green
            		 20 10/20/2013 6:00:00 PM Category 4 212 no people no people 19.3, 136.6
            green
            		 21 10/21/2013 Category 3 195 no people no people 19.8, 136.2
            green
            		 22 10/21/2013 6:00:00 AM Category 2 175 no people no people 20.4, 135.9
            green
            		 23 10/21/2013 12:00:00 PM Category 2 167 no people no people 21, 135.6
            green
            		 24 10/21/2013 6:00:00 PM Category 2 158 no people no people 21.7, 135.2
            green
            		 25 10/22/2013 Category 1 138 no people no people 22.3, 134.5
            green
            		 26 10/22/2013 Category 1 138 no people no people 22.3, 134.5
            green
            		 26 10/22/2013 6:00:00 AM Category 1 138 no people no people 22.8, 133.7
            green
            		 27 10/22/2013 12:00:00 PM Category 1 138 no people no people 23.2, 133.1
            green
            		 28 10/22/2013 6:00:00 PM Category 1 130 no people no people 23.6, 132.1
            green
            		 29 10/23/2013 Category 1 130 no people no people 24.1, 131.3
            green
            		 30 10/23/2013 6:00:00 AM Category 1 130 no people 6400 people 24.4, 130.6 Japan
            green
            		 31 10/23/2013 12:00:00 PM Category 1 121 no people 500000 people 24.6, 130.2 Japan
            green
            		 32 10/23/2013 6:00:00 PM Category 1 121 no people 1.2 million people 25, 129.8 Japan
            green
            		 33 10/24/2013 Category 1 121 no people 1.3 million people 25.2, 129.7 Japan
            green
            		 34 10/24/2013 6:00:00 AM Tropical storm 111 no people 670000 people 25.9, 129.8 Japan
            green
            		 35 10/24/2013 12:00:00 PM Tropical storm 111 no people 140000 people 26.5, 130.3 Japan
            green
            		 36 10/24/2013 6:00:00 PM Tropical storm 111 no people 90000 people 27.2, 131 Japan
            green
            		 37 10/25/2013 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 27.9, 131.8
            green
            		 38 10/25/2013 6:00:00 AM Tropical storm 93 no people no people 28.9, 133
            green
            		 39 10/25/2013 12:00:00 PM Tropical storm 84 no people no people 29.8, 134.7
            green
            		 40 10/25/2013 6:00:00 PM Tropical storm 84 no people no people 30.3, 137.4
            green
            		 40 10/26/2013 6:00:00 AM Tropical storm 74 no people no people 32.9, 143.7
            green
            		 40 10/26/2013 6:00:00 PM Tropical storm 64 no people no people 36.3, 151.8
            **
            Tropical disturbance/Weak low pressure area/Remnant low (Vmax < 51 km/h), see WMO
            Actual track of the current bulletin
            The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
            Download:



            Exposed population - AoIs

            Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

            Provinces

            Country Region Province
            Japan Kyushu
            Japan Okinawa
            Guam Guam

            Populated places

            Name Region Province Country City class Population
            Hagåtña Guam Capital 1000 people
            Naha Okinawa Japan City 300000 people
            Mitsune Shizuoka Japan City -

            Critical infrastructure

            Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

            TOP

            Rainfall

            Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

            ...

            TOP

            StormSurge

            0.1 m

            The maximum Storm surge height is  0.1m in Minami-daito, Japan. This height is estimated for 24 Oct 2013 12:00 UTC .

            The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

            Locations affected by Storm surge (30 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 40 of 25 Oct 2013 18:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

            Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
            24 Oct 2013 12:00 Minami-daito Japan  0.1
            24 Oct 2013 12:00 Minamimura Japan  0.1
            24 Oct 2013 12:00 Kyuto Japan  0.1
            24 Oct 2013 13:00 Kita-daito Japan  0.1
            25 Oct 2013 08:00 Buzen Japan  0.1
            25 Oct 2013 08:00 Higashiyoshitomi Japan  0.1
            25 Oct 2013 08:00 Nakatsu Japan  0.1
            25 Oct 2013 06:00 Imazu Japan  0.1
            25 Oct 2013 16:00 Tsu Japan  0.1
            25 Oct 2013 16:00 Rokken Japan  0.1
            25 Oct 2013 16:00 Sohara Japan  0.1
            25 Oct 2013 16:00 Karasu Japan  0.1
            25 Oct 2013 16:00 Matsuzaka Japan  0.1
            25 Oct 2013 09:00 Kanda Japan  0.1
            25 Oct 2013 09:00 Shimonoseki Japan  0.1
            25 Oct 2013 09:00 Tsunemi Japan  0.1
            25 Oct 2013 09:00 Yukuhashi Japan  0.1
            25 Oct 2013 09:00 Moji Japan  0.1
            25 Oct 2013 09:00 Shiida Japan  0.1
            25 Oct 2013 09:00 Ube Japan  0.1
            25 Oct 2013 09:00 Tokonami Japan  0.1
            25 Oct 2013 09:00 Kurosaki Japan  0.1
            25 Oct 2013 09:00 Nagasu Japan  0.1
            25 Oct 2013 09:00 Hashitsu Japan  0.1
            25 Oct 2013 09:00 Takada Japan  0.1
            25 Oct 2013 09:00 Bungo-Takada Japan  0.1
            25 Oct 2013 09:00 Takedatsu Japan  0.1
            25 Oct 2013 09:00 Taketazu Japan  0.1
            25 Oct 2013 16:00 Saiku Japan  0.1
            25 Oct 2013 16:00 Shiratsuka Japan  0.1