Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for WILLA-18
in Mexico

Impact

Tropical Cyclone WILLA-18 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 174 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (23 Oct 23:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 174 km/h 0.4 m n.a. 0.5
GFS Overall 172 km/h 0.5 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 21 Oct 2018 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMexico156,976 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 20 Oct 2018 06:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 20 Oct 2018 12:00 164 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 20 Oct 2018 18:00 176 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 21 Oct 2018 00:00 174 -
- - - - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
Download:

Rainfall

-1 mm

Up to 160 thousand can be affected rain lower than 100mm





Rain exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (greater than 50mm) based on the bulletin of 21 Oct 2018 00:00 UTC

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 20 Oct 2018 06:00 - - - - - - - -
Blue 2 20 Oct 2018 12:00 - - - - - - - -
Blue 3 20 Oct 2018 18:00 - - - - - - - -
Blue 4 21 Oct 2018 00:00 - - - - - - - -




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.4m in Santa Cruz, Mexico. This height is estimated for 23 Oct 2018 23:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 21 Oct 2018 00:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
23 Oct 2018 23:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.4
23 Oct 2018 23:00 El Nuevo Mexico  0.4
23 Oct 2018 22:45 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.3
23 Oct 2018 22:30 Cuantla Mexico  0.3
23 Oct 2018 22:30 Cuamecate Mexico  0.3
23 Oct 2018 21:45 San Blas Mexico  0.2
23 Oct 2018 21:45 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
23 Oct 2018 04:45 Port Mansfield United States  0.2
23 Oct 2018 04:30 Yarborough United States  0.2
23 Oct 2018 22:15 Novillero Mexico  0.2
23 Oct 2018 05:45 Peary Place United States  0.2
23 Oct 2018 05:45 Flour Bluff United States  0.2
22 Oct 2018 05:45 Holly Beach United States  0.2
22 Oct 2018 05:45 Laguna Vista United States  0.2
22 Oct 2018 05:45 Laguna Heights United States  0.2
22 Oct 2018 05:45 Port Isabel United States  0.2
22 Oct 2018 05:45 Kopernik Shores United States  0.2
22 Oct 2018 05:45 South Padre Island United States  0.2
22 Oct 2018 05:45 Boca Chica United States  0.2
23 Oct 2018 06:15 Caruthers Cove Colonia United States  0.2
23 Oct 2018 06:15 Port Ingleside United States  0.2
23 Oct 2018 06:15 Mustang Beach United States  0.2
23 Oct 2018 06:15 Port Aransas United States  0.2
21 Oct 2018 03:45 La Florida Mexico  0.2
22 Oct 2018 02:30 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.2
23 Oct 2018 06:30 Ingleside United States  0.2
23 Oct 2018 06:30 Kenney Lane West Colonia United States  0.2
23 Oct 2018 06:30 Indian Trails Lane Colonia United States  0.2
23 Oct 2018 06:30 Country Estates Colonia United States  0.2
23 Oct 2018 06:30 Aransas Pass United States  0.2
22 Oct 2018 05:30 Fraccionamiento Nuevo Leon Mexico  0.2
21 Oct 2018 17:00 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.2
23 Oct 2018 22:45 Anderson Ways United States  0.2
23 Oct 2018 22:45 Virginia Point United States  0.2
23 Oct 2018 22:45 Galveston United States  0.2
23 Oct 2018 22:45 Port Bolivar United States  0.2
23 Oct 2018 22:45 Fort Travis United States  0.2
23 Oct 2018 22:45 Flake United States  0.2
23 Oct 2018 22:45 Elmgrove United States  0.2
23 Oct 2018 22:45 Crystal Beach United States  0.2
23 Oct 2018 22:45 Patton United States  0.2
23 Oct 2018 22:45 Bolivar Peninsula United States  0.2
23 Oct 2018 21:15 La Lima Mexico  0.2
21 Oct 2018 18:45 Boqueron Mexico  0.1
21 Oct 2018 18:45 Pasito de la Senora Mexico  0.1
23 Oct 2018 08:15 Estes United States  0.1
23 Oct 2018 08:15 Rockport United States  0.1
23 Oct 2018 08:15 Shell Ridge United States  0.1
23 Oct 2018 07:30 Country Acres Colonia United States  0.1
23 Oct 2018 22:30 Caplen United States  0.1
23 Oct 2018 21:30 San Francisco Mexico  0.1
23 Oct 2018 21:30 Monteon Mexico  0.1
21 Oct 2018 19:00 Solo Dios Mexico  0.1
23 Oct 2018 21:30 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.1
23 Oct 2018 08:30 Fulton United States  0.1
23 Oct 2018 22:30 Texas City Junction United States  0.1
23 Oct 2018 22:30 Bayou Vista United States  0.1
23 Oct 2018 22:30 Texas City United States  0.1
23 Oct 2018 21:30 Punta Mita Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2018 04:45 Indianola United States  0.1
22 Oct 2018 04:45 Port O'Connor United States  0.1
23 Oct 2018 22:30 Gilchrist United States  0.1
23 Oct 2018 22:30 High Island United States  0.1
23 Oct 2018 11:45 Corrales Mexico  0.1
23 Oct 2018 22:15 Bay Harbor United States  0.1
23 Oct 2018 22:15 Sea Isle United States  0.1
23 Oct 2018 22:15 Jamaica Beach United States  0.1
23 Oct 2018 22:15 Surfside United States  0.1
23 Oct 2018 22:15 Mims United States  0.1
23 Oct 2018 22:15 Surfside Beach United States  0.1
23 Oct 2018 22:15 Hoskins United States  0.1
23 Oct 2018 22:15 Port Morris United States  0.1
23 Oct 2018 22:15 Red Fish Cove United States  0.1
21 Oct 2018 18:30 Buenavista Mexico  0.1
23 Oct 2018 21:30 La Puerta Mexico  0.1
21 Oct 2018 19:00 Arista Mexico  0.1
23 Oct 2018 22:00 Valasco Heights United States  0.1
23 Oct 2018 22:00 Freeport United States  0.1
23 Oct 2018 22:00 Quintana United States  0.1
23 Oct 2018 11:15 Aquiles Serdan Mexico  0.1
23 Oct 2018 11:45 Ipala Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2018 05:15 Matagorda United States  0.1
23 Oct 2018 11:45 Pizota Mexico  0.1
23 Oct 2018 22:00 Gulf Park United States  0.1
23 Oct 2018 22:00 Hoskins United States  0.1
23 Oct 2018 22:00 Bryan Beach United States  0.1
23 Oct 2018 11:30 Cruz de Juanacaxtle Mexico  0.1
23 Oct 2018 21:30 Jarilla Mexico  0.1
21 Oct 2018 04:30 Conejo Mexico  0.1
21 Oct 2018 03:45 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.1
23 Oct 2018 22:00 Chinquapin United States  0.1
21 Oct 2018 04:00 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.1
21 Oct 2018 04:00 El Guatamota Mexico  0.1
23 Oct 2018 11:45 Puerto Vallarta Mexico  0.1
21 Oct 2018 22:45 El Roble Mexico  0.1
21 Oct 2018 22:45 Cachimba Mexico  0.1
23 Oct 2018 19:15 La Palmita Mexico  0.1
21 Oct 2018 03:45 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.1
21 Oct 2018 03:45 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.1
23 Oct 2018 18:30 Mazatlan Mexico  0.1
21 Oct 2018 15:30 Erendria Mexico  0.1
21 Oct 2018 19:45 San Francisco del Mar Mexico  0.1
21 Oct 2018 19:45 La Majada Mexico  0.1
21 Oct 2018 19:45 Huajapan Mexico  0.1
23 Oct 2018 19:15 Caimanero Mexico  0.1
23 Oct 2018 11:00 Chola Mexico  0.1
23 Oct 2018 18:30 Florida Mexico  0.1
24 Oct 2018 00:00 El Tornillal Mexico  0.1
23 Oct 2018 21:30 Sabine United States  0.1
23 Oct 2018 21:30 Sabine Pass United States  0.1
23 Oct 2018 21:30 Johnson's Bayou United States  0.1
23 Oct 2018 21:30 Constance Beach United States  0.1
23 Oct 2018 19:15 Barron Mexico  0.1
21 Oct 2018 00:30 Salinas Mexico  0.1
21 Oct 2018 00:30 Buen Pais Mexico  0.1
21 Oct 2018 00:30 Alvarado Mexico  0.1