Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for WILLA-18
in Mexico

Impact

Tropical Cyclone WILLA-18 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population 1 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 223 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.6 m (24 Oct 09:15 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 223 km/h 0.6 m n.a. 0.5
HWRF Overall 269 km/h 0.5 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

274 km/h

Up to 1 thousand in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 21 Oct 2018 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 2Mexico1 
CAT. 1Mexico1408 
Tropical StormMexico230822 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 20 Oct 2018 06:00 167 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 20 Oct 2018 12:00 196 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 20 Oct 2018 18:00 182 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 21 Oct 2018 00:00 201 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 21 Oct 2018 06:00 201 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 21 Oct 2018 12:00 205 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 21 Oct 2018 18:00 223 1 thousand
- - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h





Rain exposed population

No exposed population (greater than 50mm) based on the bulletin of 21 Oct 2018 18:00 UTC

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 20 Oct 2018 06:00 - - - - - - - -
Blue 2 20 Oct 2018 12:00 - - - - - - - -
Blue 3 20 Oct 2018 18:00 - - - - - - - -
Blue 4 21 Oct 2018 00:00 - - - - - - - -
Blue 5 21 Oct 2018 06:00 - - - - - - - -
Blue 6 21 Oct 2018 12:00 - - - - - - - -
Blue 7 21 Oct 2018 18:00 - - - - - - - -




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.6 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.6m in La Palmita, Mexico. This height is estimated for 24 Oct 2018 09:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 21 Oct 2018 18:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
24 Oct 2018 09:15 La Palmita Mexico  0.6
24 Oct 2018 09:15 Caimanero Mexico  0.6
24 Oct 2018 09:15 Jarilla Mexico  0.6
24 Oct 2018 09:15 La Puerta Mexico  0.6
24 Oct 2018 09:30 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.6
24 Oct 2018 10:15 Novillero Mexico  0.4
24 Oct 2018 08:15 Cuantla Mexico  0.4
24 Oct 2018 08:15 Cuamecate Mexico  0.4
24 Oct 2018 08:15 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.4
24 Oct 2018 08:15 El Nuevo Mexico  0.3
24 Oct 2018 18:00 Anderson Ways United States  0.3
24 Oct 2018 18:00 Virginia Point United States  0.3
24 Oct 2018 18:00 Galveston United States  0.3
24 Oct 2018 18:00 Port Bolivar United States  0.3
24 Oct 2018 18:00 Fort Travis United States  0.3
24 Oct 2018 18:00 Flake United States  0.3
24 Oct 2018 18:00 Elmgrove United States  0.3
24 Oct 2018 18:00 Crystal Beach United States  0.3
24 Oct 2018 18:00 Patton United States  0.3
24 Oct 2018 18:00 Bolivar Peninsula United States  0.3
24 Oct 2018 08:15 Barron Mexico  0.2
24 Oct 2018 18:00 Caplen United States  0.2
22 Oct 2018 13:15 San Blas Mexico  0.2
22 Oct 2018 13:15 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
24 Oct 2018 06:45 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.2
24 Oct 2018 17:30 Surfside United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 17:30 Mims United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 17:30 Surfside Beach United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 17:30 Hoskins United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 17:30 Port Morris United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 17:30 Red Fish Cove United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 17:30 Bay Harbor United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 17:30 Sea Isle United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 17:15 Valasco Heights United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 17:15 Freeport United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 17:15 Quintana United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 17:30 Jamaica Beach United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 17:45 Texas City Junction United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 17:45 Bayou Vista United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 17:45 Texas City United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 13:00 Peary Place United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 13:00 Flour Bluff United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 12:45 Yarborough United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 13:30 Caruthers Cove Colonia United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 13:30 Port Ingleside United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 13:30 Mustang Beach United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 13:30 Port Aransas United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 17:15 Gulf Park United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 17:15 Hoskins United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 17:15 Bryan Beach United States  0.2
22 Oct 2018 19:15 Port Mansfield United States  0.2
22 Oct 2018 10:30 Holly Beach United States  0.2
22 Oct 2018 10:30 Laguna Vista United States  0.2
22 Oct 2018 10:30 Laguna Heights United States  0.2
22 Oct 2018 10:30 Port Isabel United States  0.2
22 Oct 2018 10:30 Kopernik Shores United States  0.2
22 Oct 2018 10:30 South Padre Island United States  0.2
22 Oct 2018 10:30 Boca Chica United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 16:30 Chinquapin United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 13:30 Ingleside United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 13:30 Kenney Lane West Colonia United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 13:30 Indian Trails Lane Colonia United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 13:30 Country Estates Colonia United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 13:30 Aransas Pass United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 13:45 Estes United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 13:45 Rockport United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 13:45 Shell Ridge United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 16:30 Matagorda United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 18:00 Gilchrist United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 18:00 High Island United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 08:00 Mazatlan Mexico  0.2
24 Oct 2018 15:15 Indianola United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 15:15 Port O'Connor United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 13:45 Fulton United States  0.2
21 Oct 2018 19:30 Salina Cruz Mexico  0.2
21 Oct 2018 19:30 Lagarto Mexico  0.2
24 Oct 2018 13:30 Country Acres Colonia United States  0.2
22 Oct 2018 00:00 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.2
22 Oct 2018 00:45 San Juanico Mexico  0.2
22 Oct 2018 00:45 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.2
22 Oct 2018 00:45 Buenaventura Mexico  0.2
22 Oct 2018 10:15 Fraccionamiento Nuevo Leon Mexico  0.2
21 Oct 2018 18:15 Arista Mexico  0.2
21 Oct 2018 18:15 Buenavista Mexico  0.2
21 Oct 2018 19:00 Huajapan Mexico  0.2
21 Oct 2018 19:00 El Roble Mexico  0.2
22 Oct 2018 00:45 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.2
24 Oct 2018 07:45 Florida Mexico  0.2
24 Oct 2018 06:00 San Francisco Mexico  0.2
24 Oct 2018 06:00 Monteon Mexico  0.2
24 Oct 2018 06:00 La Lima Mexico  0.2
21 Oct 2018 18:00 Boqueron Mexico  0.2
21 Oct 2018 18:00 Pasito de la Senora Mexico  0.2
21 Oct 2018 18:30 Solo Dios Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2018 06:45 Tierra Colorada Mexico  0.1
23 Oct 2018 06:15 Cunano Mexico  0.1
23 Oct 2018 06:15 Los Inocentes Mexico  0.1
21 Oct 2018 19:30 San Francisco del Mar Mexico  0.1
21 Oct 2018 19:30 La Majada Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2018 10:45 Punta Mita Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2018 21:00 Chola Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2018 11:30 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.1
23 Oct 2018 05:00 Garrapateras Mexico  0.1
23 Oct 2018 05:00 Majada Villalobos Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2018 01:30 Rancho Cepeda Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2018 01:30 Rancho San Francisco Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2018 01:30 Colonia Camalu Mexico  0.1
23 Oct 2018 18:30 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.1
23 Oct 2018 18:30 La Boca Mexico  0.1
21 Oct 2018 21:00 La Fortuna Mexico  0.1
21 Oct 2018 21:00 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.1
24 Oct 2018 05:00 Marmol Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2018 20:45 Quinones Mexico  0.1
23 Oct 2018 16:00 Perihuete Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2018 09:15 Cruz de Juanacaxtle Mexico  0.1
21 Oct 2018 18:30 La Concepion Mexico  0.1
23 Oct 2018 19:15 Altata Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2018 16:30 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2018 10:30 La Florida Mexico  0.1
21 Oct 2018 19:45 Cachimba Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2018 00:15 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2018 01:45 Erendria Mexico  0.1
24 Oct 2018 02:45 Dimas Mexico  0.1
23 Oct 2018 23:30 San Felipe Mexico  0.1
24 Oct 2018 00:00 La Choya Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2018 11:15 Rancho Datilari Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2018 11:15 Rancho Conejo Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2018 11:15 El Tomale Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2018 00:30 Playa Oceano Pacifico Mexico  0.1
23 Oct 2018 07:15 Puerto Vallarta Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2018 10:00 Las Pinas Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2018 10:00 Playa Azul Mexico  0.1
23 Oct 2018 19:30 Pizota Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2018 17:15 Barra de San Jose Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2018 00:15 Queretaro Mexico  0.1
24 Oct 2018 18:00 Sabine United States  0.1
24 Oct 2018 18:00 Sabine Pass United States  0.1
24 Oct 2018 18:00 Johnson's Bayou United States  0.1
24 Oct 2018 18:00 Constance Beach United States  0.1
23 Oct 2018 18:30 El Castillo Mexico  0.1
24 Oct 2018 03:00 Los Frailes Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2018 00:00 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2018 20:45 Cedros Mexico  0.1
23 Oct 2018 23:30 El Tornillal Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2018 00:30 Estero la Bocana Mexico  0.1
23 Oct 2018 07:15 Agua Fresca Mexico  0.1
21 Oct 2018 19:45 Mirador Mexico  0.1
21 Oct 2018 19:45 Ayutla Mexico  0.1
21 Oct 2018 19:30 Costa Rica Mexico  0.1
24 Oct 2018 05:00 Topolobampo Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2018 12:30 Corrales Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2018 12:30 Aquiles Serdan Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2018 12:30 Ipala Mexico  0.1
24 Oct 2018 01:00 El Mezquital Mexico  0.1
23 Oct 2018 23:45 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.1
24 Oct 2018 05:15 Datilito Mexico  0.1
24 Oct 2018 05:15 Rosario Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2018 03:15 El Naranjal Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2018 03:15 La Mata Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2018 03:15 Agua Dulce Mexico  0.1
21 Oct 2018 18:15 Conejo Mexico  0.1
21 Oct 2018 19:45 Tangolunda Mexico  0.1
24 Oct 2018 03:15 Las Palmas Mexico  0.1
24 Oct 2018 03:15 La Ribera Mexico  0.1
24 Oct 2018 03:15 Punta Colorada Mexico  0.1
24 Oct 2018 03:15 Punta Arena Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2018 03:30 San Carlos Mexico  0.1
24 Oct 2018 18:00 Peveto Beach United States  0.1
22 Oct 2018 20:45 Chamela Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2018 20:45 Cuitzmala Mexico  0.1
24 Oct 2018 04:00 Santa Marta Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2018 03:00 Cabo Rojito Mexico  0.1
24 Oct 2018 04:15 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.1

Calculation folder at this link