Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for IDAI-19
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IDAI-19 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries Mozambique
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 144 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.9 m (14 Mar 19:30 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 144 km/h 1.9 m 756 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 176 km/h 3.1 m 1256 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 14 Mar 2019 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMozambique1059261 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 08 Mar 2019 12:00 126 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 09 Mar 2019 00:00 126 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 09 Mar 2019 12:00 137 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 10 Mar 2019 00:00 148 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 10 Mar 2019 12:00 155 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 11 Mar 2019 00:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 11 Mar 2019 12:00 155 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 12 Mar 2019 00:00 166 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 12 Mar 2019 12:00 176 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 13 Mar 2019 00:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 13 Mar 2019 12:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 14 Mar 2019 00:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 14 Mar 2019 12:00 144 -
- - - - - Mozambique




Impact estimation for the next 72h

Rainfall

1256 mm

Up to 10 million can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 14 Mar 2019 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
750-1000 mmMozambique16 
500-750 mmZimbabwe, Mozambique157772
+
Mozambique135397 
Zimbabwe22375 
250-500 mmZimbabwe, Mozambique1849270
+
Mozambique956242 
Zimbabwe893028 
100-250 mmMozambique, Zimbabwe7957686
+
Mozambique1803454 
Zimbabwe6154232 
50-100 mmTanzania, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, South Africa3066141
+
Tanzania44 
Mozambique576912 
Zimbabwe2488219 
South Africa966 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 08 Mar 2019 12:00 721 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 09 Mar 2019 00:00 678 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 09 Mar 2019 12:00 764 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 10 Mar 2019 00:00 919 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 10 Mar 2019 12:00 918 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 11 Mar 2019 00:00 725 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 11 Mar 2019 12:00 556 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 12 Mar 2019 00:00 585 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 12 Mar 2019 12:00 522 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 13 Mar 2019 00:00 548 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 13 Mar 2019 12:00 731 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 14 Mar 2019 00:00 878 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 14 Mar 2019 12:00 756 10 million
- Tanzania, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, South Africa




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

1.9 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  1.9m in Nhangau, Mozambique. This height is estimated for 14 Mar 2019 19:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 14 Mar 2019 12:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
14 Mar 2019 19:30 Nhangau Mozambique  1.9
14 Mar 2019 19:30 Chofandicho Mozambique  1.9
14 Mar 2019 19:30 Panaca Mozambique  1.9
14 Mar 2019 21:00 Damiao Mozambique  1.8
14 Mar 2019 18:15 Tama Mozambique  1.8
14 Mar 2019 22:30 Nova Sofala Mozambique  1.7
14 Mar 2019 18:15 Jonja Mozambique  1.6
14 Mar 2019 20:30 Divinhe Mozambique  1.3
14 Mar 2019 20:30 Chiloane Mozambique  1.3
14 Mar 2019 16:45 Bingue Mozambique  1.1
14 Mar 2019 12:30 Rupia Mozambique  0.8
14 Mar 2019 12:30 Machesse Mozambique  0.8
14 Mar 2019 19:45 Jo Mozambique  0.5
14 Mar 2019 19:45 Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.5
14 Mar 2019 20:00 Laisse Mozambique  0.5
14 Mar 2019 20:00 Dinguiduane Mozambique  0.5
14 Mar 2019 12:00 Maconharumo Mozambique  0.4
14 Mar 2019 20:00 Natalia Mozambique  0.4
14 Mar 2019 20:15 Inhassoro Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 20:15 Afonso Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 20:15 Catine Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 20:15 Caulino Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 20:15 Mariano Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 20:15 Asneira Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 13:45 Castigo Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 20:45 Bevatry Madagascar  0.2
14 Mar 2019 20:45 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.2
15 Mar 2019 00:30 Colchester South Africa  0.2
14 Mar 2019 15:45 Bambe Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 15:45 Maguemba Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 15:45 Macashale Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 15:45 Macanzele Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 13:15 Mahoa Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 13:15 Uetela Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 15:15 Beula Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 15:15 Morrumbene Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 15:15 Mabsil Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 15:15 Marivate Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 15:15 Miramar Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 13:30 Afo Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 21:00 Tsilambana Madagascar  0.2
14 Mar 2019 19:30 Xetoquica Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 19:30 Vilanculos Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 14:00 Amado Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 16:30 Chichocane Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 16:30 China Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 17:15 Caliua Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 17:15 Raraga Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 17:15 Metapa Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 20:45 Ambalabao Madagascar  0.2
14 Mar 2019 14:30 Fabiao Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 14:00 Tomodo Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 14:00 Mutiba Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 23:45 Memba Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 23:45 Muanua Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 23:45 Ecota Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 23:45 Formone Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 23:45 Capelelene Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 23:45 Nhiendgi Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 23:45 Nangata Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 23:45 Chepa Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 18:45 Richmond South Africa  0.1
14 Mar 2019 20:45 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 13:45 Chimuaza Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 13:45 Guiducua Mozambique  0.1
17 Mar 2019 01:00 Boesmansriviermond South Africa  0.1
17 Mar 2019 01:00 Kasouga South Africa  0.1
14 Mar 2019 20:45 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:30 Manampatra Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 23:30 Vila Luisa Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 23:30 D'lhelo Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 23:30 Linchica Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 13:30 Mulia Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 14:15 Mutadua Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 14:15 Murrumuana Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 20:45 Andranovoribe Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:45 Marofototra Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:45 Voalavo Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 15:00 Manometimay Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 15:00 Antsamaka Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 15:00 Morondava Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 15:00 Antserananbondro Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 15:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 15:00 Kivalo Est Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 13:30 Morrua Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 14:00 Ocone Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 14:00 Quelimane do Sal Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 14:00 Quinga Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 14:00 Metula Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 13:30 Pebane Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:30 Mkadini Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:30 Kigongoni Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:30 Bagamoyo Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 14:30 Inhangulue Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 14:30 Mendozo Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 14:30 Magromane Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 12:15 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.1
16 Mar 2019 20:00 Port Alfred South Africa  0.1
15 Mar 2019 03:30 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 21:15 Nampuita Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 22:00 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 14:45 Bajone Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:15 Manomba Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:15 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:15 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 15:45 Antohgo Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 14:15 Barra Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Mombasa Kenya  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Mto Panga Kenya  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Mtwapa Kenya  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Kijipwa Kenya  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Kijangwani Kenya  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:45 Mboamaji Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:45 Bandarini Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:45 Kutani Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:45 Buuni Village Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 13:45 Moebase Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 13:45 Inhambane Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 13:45 Guilande Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 13:45 Banga Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 13:45 Ingale Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 13:45 Praia do Tofo Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 14:45 Catembe Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 14:45 Joannisse Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 14:45 Maziba Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:30 Ali Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:30 Injaca Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:30 Calajulo Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:30 Lumbo Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:30 Mosengeri Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:30 Mocambique Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 15:00 Carramali Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:00 Nantapa Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:00 Muaco Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 23:00 Namuali Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 20:30 Kilifi Kenya  0.1
14 Mar 2019 20:30 Takaungu Kenya  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:30 Mbweni Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:30 Doriya Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 17:45 Mahupe Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 17:45 Induna Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 08:30 Tambohorano Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 08:30 Ambatomilahy Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 13:30 Namorre Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:45 Ndumbwe Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:45 Kiswa Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:45 Mikindani Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:45 Naumba Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:45 Mtwara Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:45 Msangamkuu Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:45 Momade Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:45 Metopa Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 22:15 Barroa Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 22:15 Coluvelane Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 20:30 Baly Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 08:15 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 08:15 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 08:15 Manampea Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 15:00 Mocareja Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:30 Bopwe Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:30 Konde Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:30 Kijichame Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:30 Dutani Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:30 Vumba Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:30 Chokaningayo Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:30 Kiuyu Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:15 Zanzibar Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:15 Kiembi Samaki Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:15 Mchamba Wima Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:15 Fumba Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:15 Kibele Tanzania  0.1
17 Mar 2019 07:30 Port Shepstone South Africa  0.1
17 Mar 2019 07:30 Glanfield South Africa  0.1
17 Mar 2019 07:30 Mtwalume South Africa  0.1
17 Mar 2019 07:30 Sezela South Africa  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:15 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:45 Maintirano Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:45 Andemba Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:45 Ampanihy Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:45 Reharaka Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Magesani Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Rushungi Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Lihimalyao Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Mkoe Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:30 Belailay Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 20:30 Soalala Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 15:00 Caramaca Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 15:00 Napito Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 17:45 Kuwea Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Watamu Kenya  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Malindi Kenya  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Marikebuni Kenya  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Gongoni Kenya  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Mkunguni Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Ukongoroni Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Paje Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Kipandoni Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Hiari Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Tongoni Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:15 Metuge Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:15 Mussange Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:15 Acache Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:15 Porto Amelia Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:15 Messequero Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:15 Atolo Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:15 Murrebue Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:15 Luguni Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:15 Tari Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 15:15 Terrene Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 10:45 Andopitaly Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 10:45 Ambozaka Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 10:45 Andramasay Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 10:45 Antanambao Samaka Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Mapopwe Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Mdudu Mdogo Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Dikoni Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Chwaka Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Kitogani Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Pingwe Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:15 Kitambula Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:15 Petukiza Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:15 Kijamboni Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:15 Bomalandani Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:15 Vanga Kenya  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:15 Mkwiro Kenya  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:30 Mvuni Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 15:45 Natiquinde Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Ukunda Kenya  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Tiwi Kenya  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Waa Kenya  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Mkunguni Kenya  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Mwandoni Kenya  0.1
15 Mar 2019 08:00 Antsafy Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 15:00 Chululu Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:45 Uzi Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:45 Kijini Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 15:15 Ngomeni Kenya  0.1

Calculation folder at this link