Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for IDAI-19
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IDAI-19 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries Madagascar
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 158 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.6 m (11 Mar 10:15 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 158 km/h 0.6 m 725 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 176 km/h 3.1 m 1256 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 11 Mar 2019 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMadagascar20174 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 08 Mar 2019 12:00 126 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 09 Mar 2019 00:00 126 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 09 Mar 2019 12:00 137 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 10 Mar 2019 00:00 148 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 10 Mar 2019 12:00 155 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 11 Mar 2019 00:00 158 -
- - - - - Madagascar




Impact estimation for the next 72h

Rainfall

1256 mm

Up to 20 thousand can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 11 Mar 2019 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmTanzania, Madagascar, South Africa21362
+
Tanzania2209 
Madagascar18047 
South Africa1106 
50-100 mmTanzania, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Comoros, Madagascar, South Africa, Lesotho2125475
+
Tanzania884878 
Democratic Republic of the Congo24336 
Zambia14118 
Malawi157996 
Mozambique1997 
Comoros10002 
Madagascar328007 
South Africa171504 
Lesotho532637 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 08 Mar 2019 12:00 721 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 09 Mar 2019 00:00 678 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 09 Mar 2019 12:00 764 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 10 Mar 2019 00:00 919 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 10 Mar 2019 12:00 918 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 11 Mar 2019 00:00 725 20 thousand
- - - - Tanzania, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Comoros, Madagascar, South Africa, Lesotho




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.6 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.6m in Ankirijibe, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 11 Mar 2019 10:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 11 Mar 2019 00:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
11 Mar 2019 10:15 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.6
11 Mar 2019 10:15 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.6
11 Mar 2019 10:15 Manampea Madagascar  0.6
11 Mar 2019 10:15 Antsafy Madagascar  0.6
11 Mar 2019 10:45 Tambohorano Madagascar  0.6
11 Mar 2019 10:45 Ambatomilahy Madagascar  0.6
11 Mar 2019 09:45 Onara Madagascar  0.5
11 Mar 2019 09:45 Ankoakala Madagascar  0.5
11 Mar 2019 09:45 Ambato Madagascar  0.5
11 Mar 2019 09:30 Marovazha Madagascar  0.5
11 Mar 2019 09:15 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.5
11 Mar 2019 09:15 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.5
11 Mar 2019 09:15 Marofototra Madagascar  0.5
11 Mar 2019 09:15 Voalavo Madagascar  0.5
11 Mar 2019 09:45 Manampatra Madagascar  0.3
11 Mar 2019 09:45 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.3
11 Mar 2019 11:30 Colchester South Africa  0.3
13 Mar 2019 19:30 Tama Mozambique  0.3
13 Mar 2019 19:30 Jonja Mozambique  0.3
13 Mar 2019 19:00 Bingue Mozambique  0.3
13 Mar 2019 19:30 Chofandicho Mozambique  0.3
13 Mar 2019 19:30 Panaca Mozambique  0.3
13 Mar 2019 19:00 Machesse Mozambique  0.3
13 Mar 2019 19:30 Rupia Mozambique  0.3
13 Mar 2019 19:15 Nhangau Mozambique  0.3
13 Mar 2019 18:45 Maconharumo Mozambique  0.3
13 Mar 2019 20:15 Damiao Mozambique  0.3
11 Mar 2019 09:45 Bevatry Madagascar  0.3
11 Mar 2019 09:45 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.3
13 Mar 2019 20:45 Nova Sofala Mozambique  0.3
12 Mar 2019 04:30 Manomba Madagascar  0.2
12 Mar 2019 04:30 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.2
12 Mar 2019 04:30 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.2
12 Mar 2019 04:00 Belailay Madagascar  0.2
11 Mar 2019 17:45 Divinhe Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 17:45 Chiloane Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 10:00 Tsilambana Madagascar  0.2
12 Mar 2019 03:45 Maintirano Madagascar  0.2
13 Mar 2019 18:00 Chimuaza Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 18:00 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 18:00 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 21:00 Amado Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 10:00 Ambalabao Madagascar  0.2
11 Mar 2019 06:15 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.2
13 Mar 2019 18:15 Mulia Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 17:45 Barra Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 09:45 Andranovoribe Madagascar  0.2
12 Mar 2019 11:00 Andemba Madagascar  0.2
12 Mar 2019 11:00 Ampanihy Madagascar  0.2
12 Mar 2019 11:00 Reharaka Madagascar  0.2
11 Mar 2019 13:30 Mkadini Tanzania  0.2
11 Mar 2019 13:30 Kigongoni Tanzania  0.2
11 Mar 2019 13:30 Bagamoyo Tanzania  0.2
11 Mar 2019 10:45 Richmond South Africa  0.2
11 Mar 2019 09:15 Baly Madagascar  0.2
11 Mar 2019 09:15 Soalala Madagascar  0.2
12 Mar 2019 12:45 Boesmansriviermond South Africa  0.2
12 Mar 2019 12:45 Kasouga South Africa  0.2
12 Mar 2019 12:45 Port Alfred South Africa  0.2
12 Mar 2019 17:30 Ocone Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 17:30 Quelimane do Sal Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 20:15 Jo Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 20:15 Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 16:30 Caliua Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 16:30 Raraga Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 16:30 Metapa Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 09:15 Andanivato Madagascar  0.2
11 Mar 2019 09:15 Ambatojoby Madagascar  0.2
11 Mar 2019 09:15 Mahabo Madagascar  0.2
11 Mar 2019 09:15 Andramy Madagascar  0.2
11 Mar 2019 09:15 Marotaola Madagascar  0.2
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Sadani Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 17:30 Tomodo Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 17:30 Mutiba Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:45 Zanzibar Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:45 Kiembi Samaki Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:45 Mchamba Wima Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Bumbwini Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Bet-el-Mali Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Donge Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Kibele Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Mbweni Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Doriya Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 14:00 Ali Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 14:00 Injaca Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 14:00 Terrene Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 14:00 Calajulo Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 14:00 Mosengeri Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 08:30 Muaco Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 08:30 Quinga Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 08:30 Metula Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 03:30 Ambararata Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 03:30 Ankevo Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 03:30 Ankiliabo Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 03:30 Manometimay Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 03:30 Antsamaka Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Fumba Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 17:30 Magromane Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Mkwaja Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 16:15 Laisse Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 16:15 Dinguiduane Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:45 Lumbo Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:45 Mocambique Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 09:15 Andamoty Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 09:15 Madirobe Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 09:15 Ampapamena Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 09:15 Memba Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 09:15 Muanua Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 09:15 Nampuita Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 09:15 Formone Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 09:15 Macalopa Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 09:15 Nangata Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Uzi Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Mapopwe Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Chwaka Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Kitogani Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Kijini Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 17:15 Inhangulue Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 17:15 Mendozo Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 03:00 Mutadua Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 03:00 Murrumuana Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 02:45 Belo-sur-Mer Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 02:45 Marofihitsa Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Mkokotoni Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 13:00 Fish River Camping Site South Africa  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:00 Metuge Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:00 Mussange Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:00 Acache Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:00 Porto Amelia Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:00 Messequero Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:00 Atolo Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:00 Murrebue Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:00 Luguni Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:00 Tari Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Mauala Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Arire Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 08:15 Nantapa Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 08:15 Momade Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 08:15 Metopa Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 17:15 Quionga Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 17:15 Quiwia Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 01:15 Namacoto Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 01:15 Namuali Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:00 Sakura Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:45 Quissanga Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:45 Pangome Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:45 Arimba Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:45 Tavari Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 02:15 Natalia Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Bwereu Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Banda Kuu Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 09:30 Ecota Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 09:30 Capelelene Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 09:30 Chepa Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 01:45 Barroa Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 01:45 Coluvelane Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 02:15 Coropoa Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 03:15 Morondava Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 03:15 Antserananbondro Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 03:15 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 03:15 Kivalo Est Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 03:30 Nhiendgi Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:30 Vila de Mocimboa da Praia Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:30 Libambai Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:30 Meronvi Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:30 Quissengue Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 19:15 Vila Luisa Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 19:15 D'lhelo Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 19:15 Linchica Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 07:45 Beula Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 07:45 Morrumbene Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 07:45 Mabsil Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 07:45 Marivate Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 07:45 Miramar Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:00 Mdudu Mdogo Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:00 Dikoni Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:00 Ukongoroni Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:00 Pingwe Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:00 Paje Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 16:30 Morrua Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 16:30 Carramali Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 16:30 Pebane Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:00 Konduchi Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 08:45 Napito Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 08:45 Namorre Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:45 Miquindane Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:45 Lurio Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:45 Ombauine Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 01:15 Ambozaka Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:00 Kilwa Kivinje Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:00 Magawa Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:00 Msindaji Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:00 Kisiju Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 08:30 Soahanina Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 08:15 Andopitaly Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:45 Ushongo Mabaoni Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:15 Kipara Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:15 Dar es Salaam Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:15 Msasani Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:15 Magogoni Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:15 Mjimwema Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:15 Mboamaji Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:15 Bandarini Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:15 Kutani Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:30 Kiombani Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 04:30 Antohgo Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Kilindoni Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Mkarangama Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Kipingwe Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Kirongwe Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Jimbo Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:00 Mchungu Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 20:45 Tsiboka Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 20:45 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:00 Handeru Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:00 Pangani Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:00 Kolekole Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:00 Vumbi Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:00 Kilale Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 13:00 Mpekweni South Africa  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:00 Somanga Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:00 Matapatapa Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 08:45 Caramaca Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 08:45 Mocareja Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:15 Hiari Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:30 Mvuni Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:30 Kitambula Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:30 Petukiza Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:30 Kijamboni Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:30 Bomalandani Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:00 Mkunguni Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 08:45 Moebase Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:45 Tanga Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 01:45 Natiquinde Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 09:00 Tamotamo Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 15:00 Mtanga Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 15:00 Kilwa Kisiwani Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 15:00 Kilwa Masoko Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 15:00 Songa Manara I Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:00 Mucojo Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:00 Ingoane Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:00 Pangane Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 10:15 Ankoba Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 10:15 Antseranandaka Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 10:15 Mite Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 10:15 Manahy Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 01:00 Appontement Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 01:00 Ankoadavo Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 01:00 Soahazo Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:00 Chumbuni Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:00 Taandani Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:00 Chekea Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:00 Uchangani Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:00 Temi Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:00 Chake Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:00 Ziwani Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:00 Kijichame Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:00 Jojo Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:00 Kitwea Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:00 Dutani Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:00 Hurumuzi Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:00 Vumba Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 08:15 Larde Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:15 Kovkovu Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:00 Mkuuni Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:00 Gazija Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 15:15 Namelala Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 15:15 Maaia Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 15:15 Matiquite Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 15:15 Minhauine Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Ruvu Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Mchinga Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Mbanja Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Likonga Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:15 Kiriwani Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Madimba Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Msimbati Tanzania  0.1
13 Mar 2019 03:00 Begha Mouth South Africa  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:45 Mwera Tanzania  0.1
13 Mar 2019 12:45 Andramasay Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 12:45 Antanambao Samaka Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Kawi Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 22:45 Ankelifolo Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 03:45 Chululu Mozambique  0.1

Calculation folder at this link