Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for IDAI-19
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IDAI-19 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries Madagascar, Mozambique
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 155 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.8 m (14 Mar 11:30 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 155 km/h 0.8 m 556 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 176 km/h 3.1 m 1256 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 11 Mar 2019 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMadagascar, Mozambique45312
+
Madagascar9007 
Mozambique36305 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 08 Mar 2019 12:00 126 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 09 Mar 2019 00:00 126 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 09 Mar 2019 12:00 137 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 10 Mar 2019 00:00 148 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 10 Mar 2019 12:00 155 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 11 Mar 2019 00:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 11 Mar 2019 12:00 155 -
- - - - - Madagascar, Mozambique




Impact estimation for the next 72h

Rainfall

1256 mm

Up to 2 thousand can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 11 Mar 2019 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmMadagascar, Mozambique1968
+
Mozambique1689 
Madagascar279 
50-100 mmTanzania, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, South Africa959689
+
Tanzania204862 
Democratic Republic of the Congo2409 
Zambia41858 
Malawi37818 
Mozambique549908 
Madagascar97938 
South Africa24896 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 08 Mar 2019 12:00 721 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 09 Mar 2019 00:00 678 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 09 Mar 2019 12:00 764 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 10 Mar 2019 00:00 919 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 10 Mar 2019 12:00 918 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 11 Mar 2019 00:00 725 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 11 Mar 2019 12:00 556 2 thousand
- - - - Tanzania, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, South Africa




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.8 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.8m in Chofandicho, Mozambique. This height is estimated for 14 Mar 2019 11:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 11 Mar 2019 12:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
14 Mar 2019 11:30 Chofandicho Mozambique  0.8
14 Mar 2019 11:45 Nhangau Mozambique  0.8
14 Mar 2019 11:45 Damiao Mozambique  0.8
14 Mar 2019 11:30 Panaca Mozambique  0.8
14 Mar 2019 11:30 Tama Mozambique  0.7
14 Mar 2019 12:00 Jo Mozambique  0.7
14 Mar 2019 12:00 Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.7
14 Mar 2019 12:00 Nova Sofala Mozambique  0.6
14 Mar 2019 12:00 Chiloane Mozambique  0.6
14 Mar 2019 12:00 Laisse Mozambique  0.6
14 Mar 2019 12:00 Dinguiduane Mozambique  0.6
14 Mar 2019 10:30 Jonja Mozambique  0.6
11 Mar 2019 12:45 Tambohorano Madagascar  0.5
11 Mar 2019 12:45 Ambatomilahy Madagascar  0.5
11 Mar 2019 12:45 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.5
11 Mar 2019 12:45 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.5
11 Mar 2019 12:45 Manampea Madagascar  0.5
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Antsafy Madagascar  0.5
14 Mar 2019 12:00 Natalia Mozambique  0.4
14 Mar 2019 08:15 Bingue Mozambique  0.4
14 Mar 2019 12:00 Divinhe Mozambique  0.4
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Onara Madagascar  0.4
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Ankoakala Madagascar  0.4
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Ambato Madagascar  0.4
14 Mar 2019 08:30 Machesse Mozambique  0.4
13 Mar 2019 20:00 Maconharumo Mozambique  0.4
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Marovazha Madagascar  0.4
14 Mar 2019 08:30 Rupia Mozambique  0.4
11 Mar 2019 12:00 Colchester South Africa  0.3
11 Mar 2019 15:00 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.3
11 Mar 2019 15:00 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.3
11 Mar 2019 15:00 Marofototra Madagascar  0.3
11 Mar 2019 15:00 Voalavo Madagascar  0.3
11 Mar 2019 15:00 Manampatra Madagascar  0.3
11 Mar 2019 15:00 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.3
14 Mar 2019 12:00 Inhassoro Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 12:00 Afonso Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 12:00 Catine Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 12:00 Caulino Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 12:00 Mariano Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 12:00 Asneira Mozambique  0.3
13 Mar 2019 19:30 Amado Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 18:00 Chimuaza Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 18:00 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 11:45 Castigo Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 18:15 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 05:00 Manomba Madagascar  0.2
12 Mar 2019 05:00 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.2
12 Mar 2019 05:00 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.2
12 Mar 2019 05:15 Belailay Madagascar  0.2
13 Mar 2019 18:15 Mulia Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 18:15 Barra Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 04:15 Maintirano Madagascar  0.2
11 Mar 2019 13:45 Bevatry Madagascar  0.2
11 Mar 2019 13:45 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.2
12 Mar 2019 04:15 Andemba Madagascar  0.2
12 Mar 2019 04:15 Ampanihy Madagascar  0.2
12 Mar 2019 04:15 Reharaka Madagascar  0.2
12 Mar 2019 00:45 Richmond South Africa  0.2
11 Mar 2019 13:15 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.2
11 Mar 2019 13:15 Ambalabao Madagascar  0.2
12 Mar 2019 16:30 Caliua Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 16:30 Raraga Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 16:30 Metapa Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 11:45 Xetoquica Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 11:45 Vilanculos Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 13:15 Mkadini Tanzania  0.2
11 Mar 2019 13:15 Kigongoni Tanzania  0.2
11 Mar 2019 13:15 Bagamoyo Tanzania  0.2
11 Mar 2019 13:15 Tsilambana Madagascar  0.2
12 Mar 2019 12:45 Boesmansriviermond South Africa  0.2
13 Mar 2019 13:30 Ocone Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 13:30 Quelimane do Sal Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 13:00 Kasouga South Africa  0.2
12 Mar 2019 17:15 Tomodo Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 17:15 Mutiba Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 12:45 Port Alfred South Africa  0.2
14 Mar 2019 12:00 Chichocane Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 12:00 China Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 12:00 Mahoa Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 13:30 Andranovoribe Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 17:15 Memba Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 17:15 Muanua Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 17:15 Ecota Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 17:15 Formone Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 17:15 Capelelene Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 17:15 Nhiendgi Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 17:15 Nangata Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 17:15 Chepa Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 13:15 Magromane Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:45 Zanzibar Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:45 Kiembi Samaki Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:45 Mchamba Wima Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Sadani Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Bumbwini Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Bet-el-Mali Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Donge Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Kibele Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Mbweni Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Doriya Tanzania  0.1
13 Mar 2019 13:15 Inhangulue Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 13:15 Mendozo Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:30 Baly Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:30 Soalala Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Fumba Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Mkwaja Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Uzi Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Mapopwe Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Chwaka Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Kitogani Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Kijini Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:45 Quissanga Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:45 Pangome Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:45 Arimba Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:45 Tavari Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Mkokotoni Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:00 Cabaceira Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:00 Matibane Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:00 Alimperia Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:00 Messonta Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:00 Metuge Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:00 Mussange Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:00 Acache Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:00 Porto Amelia Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:00 Messequero Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:00 Atolo Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:00 Murrebue Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:00 Luguni Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:00 Tari Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:45 Ali Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:45 Injaca Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:45 Calajulo Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:45 Lumbo Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:45 Mosengeri Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:45 Mocambique Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 13:00 Fish River Camping Site South Africa  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:30 Vila de Mocimboa da Praia Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:30 Libambai Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:30 Meronvi Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:30 Quissengue Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 11:45 Antohgo Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 08:30 Uetela Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 15:30 Muaco Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 15:30 Quinga Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 15:30 Metula Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Bwereu Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Banda Kuu Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:00 Sakura Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 17:15 Quionga Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 17:15 Quiwia Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Mauala Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Arire Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 20:45 Tsiboka Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 20:45 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:00 Mucojo Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:00 Ingoane Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:00 Pangane Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:00 Marotaola Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:45 Nantapa Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 16:30 Morrua Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 16:30 Carramali Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 16:30 Pebane Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:15 Nampuita Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:15 Andamoty Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:15 Madirobe Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:15 Ampapamena Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 14:15 Belo-sur-Mer Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 14:00 Terrene Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 14:00 Momade Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 14:00 Metopa Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 14:15 Natiquinde Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 13:00 Mpekweni South Africa  0.1
11 Mar 2019 15:15 Namelala Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 15:15 Maaia Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 15:15 Matiquite Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 15:15 Minhauine Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 18:30 Beula Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 18:30 Morrumbene Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 18:30 Mabsil Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 18:30 Marivate Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 18:30 Miramar Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 16:30 Kiombani Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 20:45 Ankoba Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 20:45 Antseranandaka Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 20:45 Mite Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 20:45 Manahy Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:00 Miaola Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 14:15 Lurio Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 01:45 Fabiao Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:00 Kilwa Kivinje Tanzania  0.1
13 Mar 2019 12:45 Mutadua Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 12:45 Murrumuana Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:15 Konduchi Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:00 Magawa Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:00 Msindaji Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:00 Kisiju Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 16:00 Macalopa Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 11:30 Andopitaly Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 12:45 Moebase Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:15 Lindi Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:15 Mbanja Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:15 Likonga Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:15 Kitunda Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:15 Kiuleula Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 22:45 Namuali Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 14:45 Barroa Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Mdudu Mdogo Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Dikoni Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Ukongoroni Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Pingwe Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Paje Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Mboamaji Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Bandarini Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Kutani Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Kilindoni Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Mkarangama Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Kipingwe Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Kirongwe Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Jimbo Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:00 Mchungu Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:15 Andanivato Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:15 Ambatojoby Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:15 Mahabo Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:15 Andramy Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:45 Miquindane Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:45 Ombauine Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:00 Somanga Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:00 Matapatapa Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 15:00 Napito Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 15:00 Namorre Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 11:15 Ambozaka Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 11:15 Moravano Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 11:15 Andramasay Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 14:30 Coluvelane Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 20:30 Marofihitsa Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 20:30 Ambararata Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 20:30 Ankevo Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:45 Coropoa Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:45 Larde Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 12:45 Bajone Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 17:30 Kilifi Kenya  0.1
11 Mar 2019 17:30 Takaungu Kenya  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:15 Bekoropoka Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:15 Ambohibe Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Madimba Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Msimbati Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:15 Marere Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:15 Lucete Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:15 Quiterajo Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 19:15 Vila Luisa Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 19:15 D'lhelo Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 19:15 Linchica Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 11:15 Soahazo Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:00 Ushongo Mabaoni Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:45 Olumbe Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:00 Nacala Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Ruvu Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Mchinga Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 15:15 Ankiliabo Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 15:15 Manometimay Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:30 Namacoto Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Mkunguni Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 17:15 Chululu Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 17:15 Caramaca Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 17:15 Hiari Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 10:00 Bambe Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 10:00 Maguemba Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 10:00 Afo Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 15:00 Antsamaka Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 15:00 Morondava Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 15:00 Antserananbondro Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 15:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 15:00 Kivalo Est Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 14:45 Handeru Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 14:45 Pangani Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 14:45 Kolekole Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 14:45 Vumbi Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 14:45 Kilale Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 11:15 Antanambao Samaka Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 20:30 Ankelifolo Madagascar  0.1

Calculation folder at this link