Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for MATMO-19/BULBUL-19
in Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, Viet Nam
29 Oct 2019 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MATMO-19/BULBUL-19 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 68 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (06 Nov 22:30 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Bangladesh)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 68 km/h 0.4 m 156 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 97 km/h 1.5 m 406 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

97 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 29 Oct 2019 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 29 Oct 2019 00:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 1 06 Nov 2019 00:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 29 Oct 2019 12:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 06 Nov 2019 12:00 101 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 29 Oct 2019 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmBurma125 
50-100 mmBhutan, Nepal, Burma, India, Bangladesh, Thailand1,614,115
+
Bhutan304 
Nepal61 
Burma1,191,338 
India420,177 
Bangladesh2,174 
Thailand61 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 29 Oct 2019 00:00 152 - - - - - - -
Blue 1 06 Nov 2019 00:00 152 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 29 Oct 2019 12:00 407 Few people
- - - - Bhutan, Nepal, Burma, India, Bangladesh, Thailand
Blue 2 06 Nov 2019 12:00 407 Few people
- - - - Bhutan, Nepal, Burma, India, Bangladesh, Thailand




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Karen, India. This height is estimated for 06 Nov 2019 22:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 29 Oct 2019 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
06 Nov 2019 22:30 Karen India  0.2
06 Nov 2019 18:30 Kakinada India  0.2
06 Nov 2019 14:15 Shangyaung Myanmar  0.2
06 Nov 2019 14:15 Mahameik Myanmar  0.2
06 Nov 2019 17:15 Shwe-o Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 17:15 Alanbya Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 17:15 Mokkamu Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 17:15 Boyagyi Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 17:15 Kyaikto Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 17:15 Kyaikpi Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 17:15 Kawbein Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 13:45 Pyapon Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 13:45 Apaung Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 13:45 Akechaungwa Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 13:45 Ase Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 13:30 Tawgyaik Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 16:45 Zokali Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 16:45 Taunggyi Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 16:45 Budin Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 16:45 Kadaik Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 16:45 Donwun Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 15:45 Thamaseikta Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 17:15 Damathat Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 16:30 Pauktaw Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 16:30 Taungxun Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 16:30 Kangyisu Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 22:15 Anin Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 22:15 Thinbawzeik Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 15:15 Tanbingyaung Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 15:15 Khindan Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 15:15 Darein Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 15:15 Paung Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 13:30 Ale-ywa Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 23:00 Kyaikkami Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 23:00 Kayindaung Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 23:00 Wagaru Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 23:00 Wegalaung Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 23:00 Karokpi Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 00:00 Kwanhla Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 00:00 Tagukana Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 23:30 Saluzeik Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 23:30 Thingangyi Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 23:30 Seikkyi Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 23:30 Thingangon Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 23:30 Kyauktazi Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 15:30 Munaing Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 15:30 Kawpamagon Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 22:15 Andin Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 20:15 Dawnvein Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 22:00 Duya Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 17:00 Thetkethaung Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 17:00 Okkan Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 17:00 Pyinkayaing Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 17:00 Wagon Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 17:00 Ledaung Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 17:00 Chaunggwa Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 17:00 Magyigyaing Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 00:00 Kadonkani Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 00:00 Yegyawgyi Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 00:00 Ama Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 13:30 Ilichar India  0.1