Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for MATMO-19/BULBUL-19
in Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, Viet Nam
09 Nov 2019 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MATMO-19/BULBUL-19 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries Bangladesh, India
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 86 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.5 m (10 Nov 04:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Bangladesh)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 86 km/h 1.5 m 261 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 97 km/h 1.5 m 406 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

97 km/h

Up to 2.1 million can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 09 Nov 2019 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormBangladesh, India2,064,048
+
Bangladesh1,660,047 
India404,001 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 29 Oct 2019 00:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 1 06 Nov 2019 00:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 29 Oct 2019 12:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 06 Nov 2019 12:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 30 Oct 2019 00:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 07 Nov 2019 00:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 30 Oct 2019 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 07 Nov 2019 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 08 Nov 2019 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 08 Nov 2019 12:00 97 -
- - - - - India
GREEN 7 09 Nov 2019 00:00 97 -
- - - - - India
GREEN 8 09 Nov 2019 12:00 86 -
- - - - - Bangladesh, India
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 09 Nov 2019 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmBangladesh, India2,229,185
+
Bangladesh2,211,645 
India17,540 
100-250 mmBangladesh, India20,887,592
+
Bangladesh18,680,940 
India2,206,652 
50-100 mmBhutan, Burma, Bangladesh, China, India35,644,699
+
Bhutan19 
Burma129,613 
Bangladesh30,386,163 
China1,466 
India5,127,438 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 29 Oct 2019 00:00 152 - - - - - - -
Blue 1 06 Nov 2019 00:00 152 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 29 Oct 2019 12:00 207 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 06 Nov 2019 12:00 207 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 30 Oct 2019 00:00 201 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 07 Nov 2019 00:00 201 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 30 Oct 2019 12:00 182 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 07 Nov 2019 12:00 182 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 08 Nov 2019 00:00 149 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 08 Nov 2019 12:00 232 -
- - - - - India
Blue 7 09 Nov 2019 00:00 202 390 thousand
- - - - India, Burma, Bangladesh
Blue 8 09 Nov 2019 12:00 379 23.1 million
- - - Bhutan, Burma, Bangladesh, China, India




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

1.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  1.5m in Kalipur, Bangladesh. This height is estimated for 10 Nov 2019 04:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 09 Nov 2019 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
10 Nov 2019 04:00 Kalipur Bangladesh  1.5
10 Nov 2019 04:00 Bara Patharghata Bangladesh  1.5
10 Nov 2019 04:00 Jnanpara Bangladesh  1.5
10 Nov 2019 04:00 Chhota Nishanbaria Chak Bangladesh  1.5
10 Nov 2019 04:00 Dhalua Bangladesh  1.5
10 Nov 2019 04:00 Bara Bagi Bangladesh  1.5
10 Nov 2019 04:00 Chhota Bagi Bangladesh  1.5
10 Nov 2019 04:00 Mahipur Bangladesh  1.5
10 Nov 2019 04:00 Chandkhali Bangladesh  1.5
10 Nov 2019 04:00 Burir Char Bangladesh  1.5
10 Nov 2019 04:00 Kachupatra Bangladesh  1.5
10 Nov 2019 04:00 Arpangasia Bangladesh  1.5
10 Nov 2019 04:00 Bara Baliatali Bangladesh  1.5
10 Nov 2019 04:00 Kalapara Bangladesh  1.5
10 Nov 2019 10:45 Bara Pata Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 10:45 Dakshin Char Fasson Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 10:45 Char Pyarimohan Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 10:45 Char Annadaprasad Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 10:45 Chandpur Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 10:45 Char Lakshmi Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 10:45 Kanchanpur Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 10:45 Rabipur Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 10:45 Char Faizuddin Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 10:45 Char Krishnaprasad Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 10:45 Char Manpura Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 15:30 Bamnia Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 15:30 Charparbati Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 15:30 Munshir Hat Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 15:30 Tulatali Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 15:30 Char Fakura Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 15:30 Char Chandia Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 15:30 Bara Ahmadpur Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 15:30 Banskhali Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 15:30 Bariakhali Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 15:30 Ghoshbagh Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 15:30 Sandwip Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 15:30 Akbar Hat Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 15:30 Dhalapara Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 15:45 Jafarnagar Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 16:00 Chandhuri Hat Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 16:00 Hatia Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 16:00 Khaser Hat Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 16:00 Nalchira Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 16:00 Ewazbalia Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 15:45 Nayamasti Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 16:00 Barabkunda Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 16:00 Bansbaria Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 16:15 Kumira Bangladesh  0.9
10 Nov 2019 06:30 Jahajmara Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 06:30 Maijchara Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 06:30 Sagaria Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 20:45 Char Chandra Prasad Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 20:45 Chandpur Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 20:45 Char Kali Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 20:45 Pangasia Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 20:45 Harni Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 20:45 Goal Bhaor Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 20:45 Char Medua Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 20:45 South Dighaldi Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 20:45 Kalupura Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 20:45 Char Munsi Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 20:45 Hazari Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 20:45 Hazipur Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 20:45 Jagannathpur Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 20:45 Char Lawrence Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 20:45 Char Falcon Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 20:45 Sakusia Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 20:45 Char Madhyam Lamchhidhali Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 20:45 Char Kadira Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 20:45 Char Algi Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 20:00 Baga Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 19:30 Char Gazi Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 19:30 Char Ramiz Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 19:30 Char Bedama Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 21:30 Miar Hat Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 20:00 Dasher Hat Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 20:00 Char Ishwar Ray Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 12:45 Bhatiari Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 12:45 Dakhin Kattali Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 12:45 Dakhin Patenga Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 12:45 Chittagong Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 12:45 Char Lakshia Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 12:45 Gahira Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 12:45 Janali Hat Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 12:45 Kalapul Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 12:45 Khankhanabad Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 12:45 Anowara Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 12:45 Noapara Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Ali Akbardeil Bangladesh  0.4
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Dhurung Bangladesh  0.4
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Lemsikhali Bangladesh  0.4
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Magnama Bangladesh  0.4
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Napura Bangladesh  0.4
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Uttar Nalbila Bangladesh  0.4
10 Nov 2019 11:00 Dhalghata Bangladesh  0.4
10 Nov 2019 11:00 Kalarmarchara Bangladesh  0.4
10 Nov 2019 11:00 Saflapur Bangladesh  0.4
10 Nov 2019 10:45 Amavasyakhali Bangladesh  0.3
10 Nov 2019 10:30 Ghatibhanga Bangladesh  0.3
10 Nov 2019 10:30 Coxs Bazar Bangladesh  0.3
10 Nov 2019 11:00 Kelatali Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 11:00 Khurushkul Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 11:00 Fasiakhali Bangladesh  0.2
09 Nov 2019 12:00 Chetpauk Myanmar  0.2
09 Nov 2019 12:00 Shwe-o Myanmar  0.2
09 Nov 2019 12:00 Alanbya Myanmar  0.2
09 Nov 2019 12:00 Mokkamu Myanmar  0.2
09 Nov 2019 12:00 Boyagyi Myanmar  0.2
09 Nov 2019 12:00 Kyaikto Myanmar  0.2
09 Nov 2019 12:00 Kyaikpi Myanmar  0.2
09 Nov 2019 12:00 Kawbein Myanmar  0.2
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Pechardwip Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Jaliapalong Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Dhoapalong Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Inani Bangladesh  0.2
09 Nov 2019 12:00 Damathat Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 18:15 Geonkhali India  0.1
09 Nov 2019 18:15 Nurpur India  0.1
09 Nov 2019 18:15 Diamond Harbor India  0.1
09 Nov 2019 12:00 Pauktaw Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 12:00 Zokali Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 12:00 Taungxun Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 10:30 Monakhali Bangladesh  0.1
10 Nov 2019 10:30 Silkhali Bangladesh  0.1
10 Nov 2019 10:45 Tumbru Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 10:45 Whaikhyang Bangladesh  0.1
10 Nov 2019 10:30 Bardeil Bangladesh  0.1
09 Nov 2019 12:30 Kakinada India  0.1
09 Nov 2019 17:45 Konarak India  0.1
10 Nov 2019 08:30 Dakshim Nhila Bangladesh  0.1
10 Nov 2019 08:30 Atikhalipara Bangladesh  0.1
10 Nov 2019 08:30 Teknaf Bangladesh  0.1
10 Nov 2019 08:30 Kyunbouk Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 08:30 Sabaigon Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 08:30 Ale Kalaywa Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 08:30 Kanyinchaung Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 12:00 Taunggyi Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 12:00 Budin Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 17:45 Nuliasahi India  0.1
09 Nov 2019 17:45 Nuagan India  0.1
11 Nov 2019 13:45 Kadaik Myanmar  0.1
11 Nov 2019 13:45 Donwun Myanmar  0.1