Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FRANCISCO-20
in Madagascar, Mauritius,
15 Feb 2020 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FRANCISCO-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 68 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (15 Feb 03:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 68 km/h 0.2 m 128 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 83 km/h 0.4 m 1102 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

83 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 15 Feb 2020 00:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 04 Feb 2020 18:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 05 Feb 2020 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 05 Feb 2020 06:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 05 Feb 2020 12:00 140 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 05 Feb 2020 18:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 06 Feb 2020 00:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 06 Feb 2020 06:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 06 Feb 2020 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 14 Feb 2020 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 14 Feb 2020 06:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 14 Feb 2020 12:00 83 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 12 14 Feb 2020 18:00 65 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 13 15 Feb 2020 00:00 72 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 15 Feb 2020 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
750-1000 mmMadagascar17,738 
500-750 mmMadagascar143,184 
250-500 mmMadagascar783,630 
100-250 mmMadagascar1,695,526 
50-100 mmMadagascar1,644,646 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 04 Feb 2020 18:00 248 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 05 Feb 2020 00:00 237 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 05 Feb 2020 06:00 277 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 05 Feb 2020 12:00 308 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 05 Feb 2020 18:00 269 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 06 Feb 2020 00:00 423 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 06 Feb 2020 06:00 145 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 06 Feb 2020 12:00 196 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 14 Feb 2020 00:00 111 Few people
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 10 14 Feb 2020 06:00 265 10 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 11 14 Feb 2020 12:00 507 250 thousand
- - - Madagascar
Blue 12 14 Feb 2020 18:00 232 290 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 13 15 Feb 2020 00:00 986 2.6 million
- Madagascar




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Ampasimbe, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 15 Feb 2020 03:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 15 Feb 2020 00:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
15 Feb 2020 03:00 Ampasimbe Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 03:00 Manakalana Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 03:00 Soanierana Ivongo Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 03:00 Andrangazaha Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 04:00 Mahabo Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 04:15 Anjajavy Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 04:15 Ankaranakatra Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 06:00 Fandrarazana Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 06:00 Ambodifototra Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 06:00 Lonkintsy Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 06:00 Lokintsy Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 06:00 Lohatrozona Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 06:00 Tanambe Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 06:00 Ambodiatafa Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 06:00 Manompana Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 02:45 Vohilava Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 02:30 Antakobola Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 02:30 Analanampotsy Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 04:00 Marovoha Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 04:00 Ampitily Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 03:30 Antananabe Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 03:30 Anjiamalandy Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 03:30 Mandrony Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 03:30 Anorotsangana Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 03:30 Antsahabe Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 03:30 Maromokotra Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 01:45 Voloina Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 01:45 Manambia Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 01:45 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 01:45 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 01:45 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 01:45 Mahalevona Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 01:45 Manambolosy Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 01:45 Fahambahy Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 01:45 Tampolo Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 01:45 Andilamboahangy Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 01:45 Mananara Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 01:45 Ambatofitarafana Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 01:45 Seranambe Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 05:45 Ampasina Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 01:45 Ambanizana Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 01:15 Marosiky Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 01:15 Seranandavitra Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 01:15 Maintinandry Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 01:15 Vatomandry Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 01:45 Benjana Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 04:00 Tsianinkiro Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 02:15 Rantabe Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 02:15 Maintimbato Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 02:15 Fananehana Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 02:30 Vatobe Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 04:00 Ambalatsingy Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 04:00 Ankinganomby Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 04:00 Singalana Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 01:45 Tampolo Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 04:15 Manampatra Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 04:15 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 04:15 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 02:30 Antanetilava Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 02:30 Manambato Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 02:00 Antalavia Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 02:30 Mahavanona Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 01:30 Anoromby Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 04:15 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 04:15 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 04:15 Marofototra Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 03:15 Masokoamena Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 03:15 Katsepy Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 03:15 Majunga Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 03:15 Boanamary Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 03:15 Ampitilova Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 03:15 Moraharivo Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 03:15 Antsianitia Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 01:30 Androrangambo Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 01:30 Ambohidara Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 03:30 Ambariomena Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 01:45 Manakambahiny Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 01:45 Vohitramposina Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 01:45 Ampitabe Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 01:45 Amboditafara Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 01:45 Kalomalala Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 04:15 Ankoakala Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 04:15 Ambato Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 04:15 Marovazha Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 01:15 Mahanoro Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 02:15 Rantranavona Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 04:15 Ambondrombe Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 04:30 Tampina Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 04:30 Marofinaritra Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 04:30 Ankarefo Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 04:45 Palma Mozambique  0.1
15 Feb 2020 04:45 Bawala Mozambique  0.1
15 Feb 2020 04:45 Olumbe Mozambique  0.1
15 Feb 2020 04:45 Boala Mozambique  0.1
15 Feb 2020 04:45 Maganja Mozambique  0.1
15 Feb 2020 02:45 Nantapa Mozambique  0.1
15 Feb 2020 02:45 Muaco Mozambique  0.1
15 Feb 2020 02:45 Quinga Mozambique  0.1
15 Feb 2020 02:45 Metula Mozambique  0.1
15 Feb 2020 04:00 Onara Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 06:00 Ampanakana Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 06:00 Fararano Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 06:00 Ambanisanjo Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 06:00 Antsorokaka Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 06:00 Antanifatsy Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 06:00 Mahatsaborimaika Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 05:00 Andranira Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 05:00 Ambaliha Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 05:00 Mandrorohabe Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 05:00 Mailakapasy Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 05:00 Antsahampano Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 05:00 Ambohimena Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 02:15 Fampotabe Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 04:15 Anjiabe Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 04:15 Ambila-Lemaitso Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 04:15 Vavony Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 04:15 Ampanotoamaizina Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 04:30 Antotoro Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 04:30 Ampohana Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 05:30 Ambaliha Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 05:30 Antanamazava Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 05:30 Ambatomainty Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 05:30 Manehoko Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 02:30 Fenerive Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 04:15 Ampombilava Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 04:15 Ambatoxavavy Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 06:00 Antsikafoka Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 06:00 Mahambo Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 03:45 Antetikireja Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 03:45 Antaribao Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 01:30 Namahoaka Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 01:30 Mahatsara Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 01:30 Foulpointe Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 04:30 Ambodihariha Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 04:30 Antetezambaro Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 04:30 Ambodimanga Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 04:30 Vohitsara Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 04:30 Ambinanysahavary Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 04:30 Taratasy Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 04:15 Tsinjorano Madagascar  0.1