Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FRANCISCO-20
in Madagascar, Mauritius,
14 Feb 2020 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FRANCISCO-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 61 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (14 Feb 05:45 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 61 km/h 0.2 m 111 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 83 km/h 0.4 m 1102 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

83 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 14 Feb 2020 00:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 04 Feb 2020 18:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 05 Feb 2020 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 05 Feb 2020 06:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 05 Feb 2020 12:00 140 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 05 Feb 2020 18:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 06 Feb 2020 00:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 06 Feb 2020 06:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 06 Feb 2020 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 14 Feb 2020 00:00 83 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 14 Feb 2020 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
750-1000 mmMadagascar14,661 
500-750 mmMadagascar22,190 
250-500 mmMadagascar172,378 
100-250 mmMadagascar1,785,183 
50-100 mmMadagascar1,543,702 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 04 Feb 2020 18:00 248 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 05 Feb 2020 00:00 237 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 05 Feb 2020 06:00 277 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 05 Feb 2020 12:00 308 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 05 Feb 2020 18:00 269 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 06 Feb 2020 00:00 423 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 06 Feb 2020 06:00 145 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 06 Feb 2020 12:00 196 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 14 Feb 2020 00:00 898 2 million
- Madagascar




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Manakalana, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 14 Feb 2020 05:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 14 Feb 2020 00:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
14 Feb 2020 05:45 Manakalana Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 05:45 Soanierana Ivongo Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 05:45 Andrangazaha Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 05:45 Vohilava Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 05:45 Ampasimbe Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 05:45 Fandrarazana Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 05:45 Ambodifototra Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 05:45 Lonkintsy Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 05:45 Lokintsy Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 05:45 Lohatrozona Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 05:45 Tanambe Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 05:45 Ambodiatafa Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 05:45 Manompana Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 05:30 Antakobola Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 05:30 Analanampotsy Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 05:30 Vatobe Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 05:45 Ampasina Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 02:00 Mahavanona Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 02:00 Fenerive Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 02:00 Antsikafoka Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 02:00 Mahambo Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 03:30 Voloina Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 03:30 Manambia Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 03:30 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 03:30 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 03:30 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 03:30 Mahalevona Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 03:30 Ambanizana Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 03:30 Benjana Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 05:30 Antanetilava Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 05:30 Manambato Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 01:45 Tampina Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 01:45 Marofinaritra Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 01:45 Ankarefo Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 01:30 Namahoaka Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 01:30 Mahatsara Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 01:30 Foulpointe Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 01:30 Mahatsara Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 01:30 Ambodihariha Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 01:30 Tamatave Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 01:30 Antetezambaro Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 01:30 Ambodimanga Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 01:30 Vohitsara Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 01:30 Ambinanysahavary Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 01:30 Taratasy Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 01:30 Ambila-Lemaitso Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 01:30 Vavony Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 01:30 Ampanotoamaizina Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 06:00 Masokoamena Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 06:00 Katsepy Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 06:00 Majunga Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 06:00 Boanamary Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 06:00 Ampitilova Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 06:00 Moraharivo Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 06:00 Antsianitia Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 01:15 Amboditafara Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 01:15 Kalomalala Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 01:30 Manakambahiny Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 01:30 Vohitramposina Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 01:30 Ampitabe Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 03:15 Rantabe Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 05:45 Antanambe Madagascar  0.1