Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELOISE-21
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
16 Jan 2021 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELOISE-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 68 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (16 Jan 16:15 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 68 km/h 0.2 m 179 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 104 km/h 2.3 m 907 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

104 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 16 Jan 2021 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 16 Jan 2021 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 16 Jan 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMozambique22,315 
100-250 mmTanzania, Malawi, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, South Africa746,704
+
Tanzania24,938 
Malawi1,628 
Madagascar495 
Mozambique560,413 
Zimbabwe139,123 
South Africa20,107 
50-100 mmTanzania, Seychelles, Malawi, Madagascar, Zambia, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, South Africa, Swaziland7,614,902
+
Tanzania210,787 
Seychelles30 
Malawi195,602 
Madagascar246,439 
Zambia566 
Mozambique3,933,781 
Zimbabwe2,583,938 
South Africa436,303 
Swaziland7,456 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 16 Jan 2021 12:00 558 770 thousand
- - - Tanzania, Seychelles, Malawi, Madagascar, Zambia, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, South Africa, Swaziland




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Catembe, Mozambique. This height is estimated for 16 Jan 2021 16:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 16 Jan 2021 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
16 Jan 2021 16:15 Catembe Mozambique  0.2
16 Jan 2021 16:15 Maputo Mozambique  0.2
16 Jan 2021 16:15 Joannisse Mozambique  0.2
16 Jan 2021 16:15 Maziba Mozambique  0.2
16 Jan 2021 16:15 Aiai Mozambique  0.2
16 Jan 2021 16:15 Cimbene Mozambique  0.2
16 Jan 2021 16:00 Canhamba Mozambique  0.2
16 Jan 2021 17:45 Ambanhe Mozambique  0.2
16 Jan 2021 17:45 Metambanhe Mozambique  0.2
16 Jan 2021 18:15 Divinhe Mozambique  0.2
16 Jan 2021 18:15 Chiloane Mozambique  0.2
16 Jan 2021 15:15 Vila Luisa Mozambique  0.2
16 Jan 2021 16:30 Ampara Mozambique  0.2
16 Jan 2021 16:30 Nova Sofala Mozambique  0.2
16 Jan 2021 16:45 Manica Mozambique  0.2
16 Jan 2021 21:00 Machavene Mozambique  0.2
16 Jan 2021 17:00 Antunes Mozambique  0.2
16 Jan 2021 17:00 Chamba Mozambique  0.2
16 Jan 2021 17:00 Beira Mozambique  0.2
16 Jan 2021 17:00 Damiao Mozambique  0.2
16 Jan 2021 14:30 D'lhelo Mozambique  0.2
16 Jan 2021 17:15 Bela Vista Mozambique  0.2
16 Jan 2021 14:45 Linchica Mozambique  0.2
16 Jan 2021 17:15 Inhangulue Mozambique  0.2
16 Jan 2021 17:15 Mendozo Mozambique  0.2
16 Jan 2021 17:15 Magromane Mozambique  0.2
16 Jan 2021 16:30 Castigo Mozambique  0.2
16 Jan 2021 16:30 Xetoquica Mozambique  0.2
16 Jan 2021 16:30 Vilanculos Mozambique  0.2
16 Jan 2021 16:30 China Mozambique  0.2
16 Jan 2021 16:30 Mariano Mozambique  0.2
16 Jan 2021 17:45 Nhangau Mozambique  0.2
16 Jan 2021 17:45 Chofandicho Mozambique  0.2
16 Jan 2021 17:45 Panaca Mozambique  0.2
16 Jan 2021 21:45 Natalia Mozambique  0.1
16 Jan 2021 21:45 Inhassoro Mozambique  0.1
16 Jan 2021 18:00 Catine Mozambique  0.1
16 Jan 2021 20:30 Nangalete Mozambique  0.1
16 Jan 2021 20:30 Mahupe Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 00:00 Ambinanivolo Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 00:00 Ambalavontaka Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 00:00 Masomeloka Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 00:00 Andranotsara Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 00:00 Manampatra Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 00:00 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 00:00 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.1
16 Jan 2021 21:00 Gafaria Mozambique  0.1
16 Jan 2021 20:30 Induna Mozambique  0.1
16 Jan 2021 19:30 Befasy Madagascar  0.1
16 Jan 2021 19:30 Akondro Madagascar  0.1
16 Jan 2021 19:00 Behavoa Madagascar  0.1
16 Jan 2021 19:00 Befamata Madagascar  0.1
16 Jan 2021 20:45 Gueima Mozambique  0.1
16 Jan 2021 20:45 Inhampsi Mozambique  0.1
16 Jan 2021 20:45 Contra Costa Mozambique  0.1
16 Jan 2021 20:45 Jacob Mozambique  0.1
16 Jan 2021 20:45 Chavanine Mozambique  0.1
16 Jan 2021 22:15 Laisse Mozambique  0.1
16 Jan 2021 22:15 Dinguiduane Mozambique  0.1
16 Jan 2021 22:15 Jo Mozambique  0.1
16 Jan 2021 22:15 Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.1
16 Jan 2021 19:45 Chichocane Mozambique  0.1
16 Jan 2021 19:45 Mahoa Mozambique  0.1
16 Jan 2021 19:45 Uetela Mozambique  0.1
16 Jan 2021 22:15 Beula Mozambique  0.1
16 Jan 2021 22:15 Morrumbene Mozambique  0.1
16 Jan 2021 22:15 Mabsil Mozambique  0.1
16 Jan 2021 22:15 Marivate Mozambique  0.1
16 Jan 2021 20:15 Guiducua Mozambique  0.1
16 Jan 2021 16:15 Chicoque Mozambique  0.1
16 Jan 2021 16:15 Miramar Mozambique  0.1
16 Jan 2021 21:45 Afonso Mozambique  0.1
16 Jan 2021 21:45 Asneira Mozambique  0.1
16 Jan 2021 17:15 Tomodo Mozambique  0.1
16 Jan 2021 21:00 Maxixe Mozambique  0.1
16 Jan 2021 21:00 Inhambane Mozambique  0.1
16 Jan 2021 21:00 Guilande Mozambique  0.1
16 Jan 2021 21:00 Banga Mozambique  0.1
16 Jan 2021 21:00 Praia do Tofo Mozambique  0.1
16 Jan 2021 17:15 Amado Mozambique  0.1
16 Jan 2021 17:15 Chimuaza Mozambique  0.1
16 Jan 2021 17:15 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.1
16 Jan 2021 17:30 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.1
16 Jan 2021 15:45 Bambe Mozambique  0.1
16 Jan 2021 15:45 Maguemba Mozambique  0.1
16 Jan 2021 15:45 Macashale Mozambique  0.1
16 Jan 2021 15:45 Macanzele Mozambique  0.1
16 Jan 2021 17:15 Mutiba Mozambique  0.1
16 Jan 2021 19:00 Zavo Madagascar  0.1
16 Jan 2021 19:00 Lavanono Madagascar  0.1
16 Jan 2021 21:30 Ampasina Madagascar  0.1
16 Jan 2021 21:30 Antakobola Madagascar  0.1
16 Jan 2021 21:30 Analanampotsy Madagascar  0.1
16 Jan 2021 21:30 Ampasimbe Madagascar  0.1
16 Jan 2021 21:30 Manakalana Madagascar  0.1
16 Jan 2021 21:30 Soanierana Ivongo Madagascar  0.1
16 Jan 2021 17:00 Morrua Mozambique  0.1
16 Jan 2021 17:00 Carramali Mozambique  0.1
16 Jan 2021 17:00 Bajone Mozambique  0.1
16 Jan 2021 17:00 Pebane Mozambique  0.1
16 Jan 2021 17:00 Caliua Mozambique  0.1
16 Jan 2021 17:00 Raraga Mozambique  0.1
16 Jan 2021 17:00 Metapa Mozambique  0.1
16 Jan 2021 19:30 Caulino Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 00:00 Voalavo Madagascar  0.1
16 Jan 2021 17:15 Tama Mozambique  0.1
16 Jan 2021 17:15 Jonja Mozambique  0.1
16 Jan 2021 17:15 Bingue Mozambique  0.1
16 Jan 2021 19:00 Ambalanosy Madagascar  0.1
16 Jan 2021 21:30 Andrangazaha Madagascar  0.1
16 Jan 2021 21:30 Vohilava Madagascar  0.1
16 Jan 2021 19:00 Ampalaza Madagascar  0.1
16 Jan 2021 19:00 Bevoalavo Est Madagascar  0.1
16 Jan 2021 21:00 David Mozambique  0.1
16 Jan 2021 17:30 Mulia Mozambique  0.1
16 Jan 2021 17:30 Barra Mozambique  0.1
16 Jan 2021 20:00 Siane Mozambique  0.1
16 Jan 2021 18:15 Ocone Mozambique  0.1
16 Jan 2021 18:30 Tolanaro Madagascar  0.1
16 Jan 2021 18:30 Marokoky Madagascar  0.1
16 Jan 2021 18:30 Sainte-Luce Madagascar  0.1
16 Jan 2021 19:15 Marofototra Madagascar  0.1
16 Jan 2021 18:00 Quelimane do Sal Mozambique  0.1
16 Jan 2021 20:45 Enkovukeni South Africa  0.1
16 Jan 2021 13:15 Manambato Madagascar  0.1
16 Jan 2021 13:15 Esama Madagascar  0.1
16 Jan 2021 13:15 Ankaramanihy Madagascar  0.1
16 Jan 2021 13:15 Manantenina Madagascar  0.1
16 Jan 2021 17:15 Rupia Mozambique  0.1
16 Jan 2021 19:45 Camo Mozambique  0.1
16 Jan 2021 19:45 Guinjala Mozambique  0.1
16 Jan 2021 19:45 Ingale Mozambique  0.1
16 Jan 2021 20:30 Maniroka Madagascar  0.1
16 Jan 2021 20:30 Antanjokatafana Madagascar  0.1
16 Jan 2021 20:30 Ratsianarana Madagascar  0.1
16 Jan 2021 20:30 Ambodivato Madagascar  0.1
16 Jan 2021 17:45 Maconharumo Mozambique  0.1