Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELOISE-21
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
17 Jan 2021 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELOISE-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 76 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (17 Jan 02:45 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 76 km/h 0.2 m 390 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 104 km/h 2.3 m 907 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

104 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 17 Jan 2021 00:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 16 Jan 2021 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 17 Jan 2021 00:00 101 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 17 Jan 2021 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMozambique, Madagascar105,908
+
Madagascar2,966 
Mozambique102,942 
100-250 mmMalawi, Tanzania, Madagascar, Mozambique, Zimbabwe914,400
+
Tanzania3,139 
Malawi25,702 
Madagascar92,679 
Mozambique608,850 
Zimbabwe184,030 
50-100 mmTanzania, Malawi, Zambia, Madagascar, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, South Africa7,950,104
+
Tanzania182,116 
Malawi271,567 
Zambia29,645 
Madagascar1,449,172 
Mozambique2,488,175 
Zimbabwe2,988,827 
South Africa540,602 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 16 Jan 2021 12:00 179 -
- - - - - Madagascar, Mozambique, South Africa
Blue 2 17 Jan 2021 00:00 542 1 million
- - - Tanzania, Malawi, Zambia, Madagascar, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, South Africa




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Voloina, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 17 Jan 2021 02:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 17 Jan 2021 00:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
17 Jan 2021 02:45 Voloina Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 02:45 Manambia Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 02:45 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 02:45 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 02:45 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 02:45 Mahalevona Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 02:45 Ambanizana Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 02:45 Benjana Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 11:15 Ampasimbe Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 11:15 Manakalana Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 11:15 Soanierana Ivongo Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 11:15 Andrangazaha Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 03:00 Rantabe Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 01:15 Ampasina Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 01:15 Antakobola Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 01:15 Analanampotsy Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 08:00 Vohilava Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 02:45 Tampolo Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 08:00 Ambodifototra Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 08:00 Lonkintsy Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 08:00 Lokintsy Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 08:00 Lohatrozona Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 08:00 Tanambe Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 10:45 Beula Mozambique  0.2
17 Jan 2021 10:45 Morrumbene Mozambique  0.2
17 Jan 2021 10:45 Mabsil Mozambique  0.2
17 Jan 2021 10:45 Marivate Mozambique  0.2
17 Jan 2021 08:00 Fandrarazana Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 08:30 Marovoha Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 08:30 Ampitily Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 08:30 Ambalatsingy Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 08:30 Ankinganomby Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 08:30 Singalana Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 08:30 Antaribao Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 08:30 Anjiajia Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 08:30 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 08:30 Tsaratanana Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 08:30 Ampasindava Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 08:30 Ankinganifahatelo Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 03:00 Maintimbato Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 08:45 Ambanhe Mozambique  0.2
17 Jan 2021 08:45 Ampara Mozambique  0.2
17 Jan 2021 08:45 Manica Mozambique  0.2
17 Jan 2021 08:45 Nova Sofala Mozambique  0.2
17 Jan 2021 08:00 Ambodiatafa Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 09:30 Antunes Mozambique  0.2
17 Jan 2021 09:30 Chamba Mozambique  0.2
17 Jan 2021 09:30 Beira Mozambique  0.2
17 Jan 2021 09:30 Damiao Mozambique  0.2
17 Jan 2021 07:30 Ambinanivolo Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 07:30 Ambalavontaka Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 07:30 Masomeloka Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 07:30 Andranotsara Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 08:00 Manompana Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 02:45 Antalavia Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 09:30 Nhangau Mozambique  0.2
17 Jan 2021 02:30 Befasy Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 02:30 Akondro Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 02:30 Manambondro Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 03:00 Fananehana Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 08:00 Metambanhe Mozambique  0.2
17 Jan 2021 08:15 Andilamboahangy Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 08:15 Mananara Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 08:15 Ambatofitarafana Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 08:15 Ambodimanga Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 08:15 Ivontaka Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 08:15 Antanambe Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 08:15 Seranambe Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 10:30 Bejongoro Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 10:30 Ampandrano Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 10:30 Andrafialava Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 10:30 Mandrony Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 10:30 Maromanjo Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 10:30 Anompaka Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 10:30 Madirotelo Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 10:30 Mahitsihazo Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 10:30 Andamoty Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 10:30 Marokitrana Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 10:30 Bevoay Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 10:30 Maromandia Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 08:15 Antetikireja Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 08:15 Anoromby Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 00:15 Manampatra Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 00:45 Mahavanona Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 00:45 Fenerive Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 00:45 Antsikafoka Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 00:45 Mahambo Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 07:15 Ampataka Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 07:15 Amboboka Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 07:15 Tsaratanana Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 07:15 Tsivala Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 07:15 Manambotra Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 00:00 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 00:00 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 07:15 Ampanotoamaizina Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 07:15 Tampina Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 08:45 Manambolosy Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 08:45 Fahambahy Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 08:45 Tampolo Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 08:00 Vatobe Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 08:30 Ambodiadabo Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 08:30 Androlavy Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 11:45 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 11:45 Marofototra Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 11:45 Voalavo Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 09:00 Contra Costa Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 09:00 Jacob Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 09:00 Chavanine Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 11:45 Masokoamena Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 11:45 Katsepy Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 11:45 Majunga Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 11:45 Boanamary Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 11:45 Ampitilova Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 11:45 Moraharivo Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 11:45 Antsianitia Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 07:45 Antanetilava Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 07:45 Manambato Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 06:00 D'lhelo Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 06:00 Linchica Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 06:15 Vila Luisa Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 08:30 Rantranavona Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 08:30 Fampotabe Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 11:15 Natalia Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 11:15 Inhassoro Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 11:15 Catine Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 02:45 Tataho Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 02:45 Manakara Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 02:45 Loharano Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 10:00 Catembe Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 10:00 Maputo Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 10:30 Nangalete Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 10:30 Mahupe Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 07:45 Namahoaka Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 07:45 Mahatsara Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 07:45 Foulpointe Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 11:30 Marovazha Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 11:30 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 10:30 Induna Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 09:45 Gafaria Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 10:15 Guiducua Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 08:30 Chofandicho Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 08:30 Panaca Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 10:15 Antananabe Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 10:15 Anorotsangana Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 10:15 Maromokotra Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 10:15 Ampiambesa Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 10:15 Antetezampolaka Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 02:30 Itenina Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 11:00 Afonso Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 11:00 Asneira Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 09:00 Ananalava Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 01:45 Ambaliha Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 01:45 Antanamazava Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 01:45 Ambatomainty Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 01:45 Manehoko Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 10:00 Joannisse Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 11:30 Ambatomilahy Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 11:30 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 11:30 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 11:30 Manampea Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 11:30 Antsafy Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 09:30 Machavene Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 08:00 Chiloane Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 09:30 Mahabo Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 09:30 Anjajavy Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 07:00 Vatomandry Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 07:00 Manakambahiny Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 07:00 Vohitramposina Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 07:00 Ampitabe Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 07:00 Amboditafara Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 11:15 Angoche Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 11:15 Namacoto Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 11:15 Namuali Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 11:15 Nantapa Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 02:45 Marofinaritra Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 02:45 Ankarefo Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 08:45 Divinhe Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 09:30 Gueima Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 03:00 Maniroka Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 03:00 Antanjokatafana Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 03:00 Ratsianarana Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 03:00 Ambodivato Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 07:00 Tolanaro Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 07:00 Marokoky Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 07:00 Sainte-Luce Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 02:00 Antanimandry Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 02:00 Anjabe Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 02:00 Andranomena Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 02:00 Nosy Faly Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 02:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 11:15 Ambato Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 11:15 Maziba Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 09:30 Inhampsi Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 11:30 Onara Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 11:30 Ankoakala Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 10:30 Caulino Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 10:45 Andamoty Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 10:45 Madirobe Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 10:45 Ampapamena Madagascar  0.1