Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELOISE-21
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
22 Jan 2021 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELOISE-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Mozambique, Zimbabwe, South Africa
Exposed population Few people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 140 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (22 Jan 05:30 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 140 km/h 0.4 m 286 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 158 km/h 3.2 m 1024 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

158 km/h

Up to Few people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 22 Jan 2021 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 1Mozambique04 
Tropical StormMozambique, Zimbabwe, South Africa1,483,669
+
Mozambique1,474,227 
Zimbabwe2,115 
South Africa7,327 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 17 Jan 2021 06:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 17 Jan 2021 12:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 17 Jan 2021 18:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 18 Jan 2021 00:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 18 Jan 2021 06:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 18 Jan 2021 12:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 18 Jan 2021 18:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 19 Jan 2021 00:00 94 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 9 19 Jan 2021 06:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 19 Jan 2021 12:00 101 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 11 19 Jan 2021 18:00 79 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 12 20 Jan 2021 00:00 76 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 13 20 Jan 2021 06:00 76 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 14 20 Jan 2021 12:00 101 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 15 20 Jan 2021 18:00 108 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 16 21 Jan 2021 00:00 101 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 17 21 Jan 2021 06:00 83 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 18 21 Jan 2021 12:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 19 21 Jan 2021 18:00 97 -
- - - - - Mozambique
GREEN 20 22 Jan 2021 00:00 144 Few people
- - - - Mozambique, Zimbabwe, South Africa
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 22 Jan 2021 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
500-750 mmMozambique, Zimbabwe10,831
+
Mozambique1,723 
Zimbabwe9,108 
250-500 mmMozambique, Zimbabwe, South Africa1,003,955
+
Mozambique728,986 
Zimbabwe164,176 
South Africa110,793 
100-250 mmMozambique, Malawi, Zimbabwe, South Africa4,258,626
+
Mozambique2,649,235 
Malawi1,640 
Zimbabwe762,575 
South Africa845,176 
50-100 mmMozambique, Malawi, Zimbabwe, South Africa4,686,261
+
Mozambique2,116,122 
Malawi85,228 
Zimbabwe1,347,324 
South Africa1,137,587 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 17 Jan 2021 06:00 68 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 17 Jan 2021 12:00 38 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 17 Jan 2021 18:00 127 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 18 Jan 2021 00:00 129 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 18 Jan 2021 06:00 144 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 18 Jan 2021 12:00 144 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 18 Jan 2021 18:00 181 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 8 19 Jan 2021 00:00 346 60 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 9 19 Jan 2021 06:00 483 9 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 10 19 Jan 2021 12:00 204 50 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 11 19 Jan 2021 18:00 329 580 thousand
- - - Madagascar
Blue 12 20 Jan 2021 00:00 508 290 thousand
- - Madagascar
Blue 13 20 Jan 2021 06:00 503 120 thousand
- - Madagascar
Blue 14 20 Jan 2021 12:00 282 100 thousand
- - - Madagascar
Blue 15 20 Jan 2021 18:00 612 Few people
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 16 21 Jan 2021 00:00 383 -
- - - - - Mozambique, Madagascar
Blue 17 21 Jan 2021 06:00 390 7 thousand
- - - - Mozambique, Madagascar
Blue 18 21 Jan 2021 12:00 185 30 thousand
- - - - Mozambique
Blue 19 21 Jan 2021 18:00 221 20 thousand
- - - - Mozambique
Blue 20 22 Jan 2021 00:00 628 5.3 million
- - Mozambique, Malawi, Zimbabwe, South Africa




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.4m in Mulia, Mozambique. This height is estimated for 22 Jan 2021 05:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 22 Jan 2021 00:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
22 Jan 2021 05:30 Mulia Mozambique  0.4
22 Jan 2021 05:30 Barra Mozambique  0.4
22 Jan 2021 05:15 Chimuaza Mozambique  0.4
22 Jan 2021 05:15 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.4
22 Jan 2021 05:15 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.4
22 Jan 2021 05:30 Amado Mozambique  0.4
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Maconharumo Mozambique  0.4
22 Jan 2021 05:30 Ocone Mozambique  0.4
22 Jan 2021 01:00 Voloina Madagascar  0.3
22 Jan 2021 01:00 Manambia Madagascar  0.3
22 Jan 2021 01:00 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.3
22 Jan 2021 01:00 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.3
22 Jan 2021 01:00 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.3
22 Jan 2021 01:00 Mahalevona Madagascar  0.3
22 Jan 2021 03:30 Quelimane do Sal Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 03:30 Inhangulue Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 03:30 Mendozo Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 03:30 Magromane Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 03:00 Rupia Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 03:00 Machesse Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 01:00 Ambanizana Madagascar  0.3
22 Jan 2021 01:30 Tama Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 01:30 Jonja Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 01:30 Bingue Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Benjana Madagascar  0.3
22 Jan 2021 00:30 Rantabe Madagascar  0.3
22 Jan 2021 02:00 Chofandicho Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 02:00 Panaca Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 03:30 Tomodo Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 03:30 Mutiba Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 03:30 Caliua Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 03:30 Raraga Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 04:15 Antunes Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 04:15 Chamba Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 04:15 Beira Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 04:15 Damiao Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 04:15 Nhangau Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 00:30 Maintimbato Madagascar  0.3
22 Jan 2021 00:45 Tampolo Madagascar  0.3
22 Jan 2021 00:30 Metapa Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 03:15 Morrua Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 00:30 Carramali Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 00:30 Bajone Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 00:30 Pebane Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 00:45 Antalavia Madagascar  0.3
22 Jan 2021 00:30 Fananehana Madagascar  0.3
22 Jan 2021 03:45 Manica Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 03:45 Nova Sofala Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 00:30 Anoromby Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 00:15 Mutadua Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 00:15 Murrumuana Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 00:15 Moebase Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 02:00 Mabsil Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 02:00 Guiducua Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 03:45 Ambanhe Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 03:45 Ampara Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 01:00 Beula Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 01:00 Morrumbene Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 01:00 Marivate Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Ambalabao Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Bevatry Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Chululu Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Caramaca Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Rantranavona Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 00:30 Chiloane Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 03:00 Mipande Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 03:00 Mucojo Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 03:00 Foque Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 03:00 Pangane Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Manambolosy Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 00:45 Bambe Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 00:45 Maguemba Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 00:45 Macashale Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Barroa Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Coluvelane Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Terrene Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 00:30 Fampotabe Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Fahambahy Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Tampolo Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Andilamboahangy Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Mananara Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Ambatofitarafana Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Ambohibe Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Andranopasy Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 01:00 Coropoa Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 01:00 Larde Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 00:15 Andopitaly Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 00:15 Antohgo Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 00:30 Ambatomilahy Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 00:30 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 00:30 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 00:30 Manampea Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 00:30 Antsafy Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 00:15 Dinguiduane Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 00:15 Jo Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 00:15 Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 00:30 Seranambe Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Mocareja Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Napito Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 00:15 Macanzele Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 01:30 Metambanhe Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 01:15 Namorre Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:30 Afo Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:15 Kivalo Est Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:30 Onara Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:30 Ankoakala Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:15 Manomba Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:15 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:15 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Tambohorano Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 02:45 Mauala Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 02:45 Arire Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Maintirano Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Belailay Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Andemba Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 03:00 Ecota Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 03:00 Nacala Velha Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 03:00 Namelala Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 03:00 Capelelene Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 03:00 Nhiendgi Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 03:00 Maaia Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 03:00 Nacala Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 03:00 Chepa Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 03:00 Matiquite Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 03:00 Minhauine Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 01:30 Namacoto Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 01:30 Namuali Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 01:30 Nantapa Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 01:30 Muaco Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 02:30 Sanhute Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 02:30 Lumbo Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 02:30 Mossuril Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 02:30 Miaola Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 02:30 Cabaceira Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 02:30 Matibane Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 02:30 Alimperia Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Laisse Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Natalia Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Ambatoharana Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Manampatra Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:45 Ambato Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 03:15 Tsilambana Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 03:00 Divinhe Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Inhassoro Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 03:30 Androrangambo Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 03:30 Ambohidara Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 03:30 Marosiky Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 03:30 Seranandavitra Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 01:15 Aube Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 01:15 Natiquinde Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:15 Afonso Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:15 Catine Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:15 Caulino Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:15 Asneira Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Ambozaka Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Moravano Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Andramasay Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 01:15 Angoche Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 01:30 Quinga Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Morondava Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 01:45 Miquindane Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 01:45 Lurio Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 01:30 Metula Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 01:30 Momade Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 01:30 Metopa Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Antanambao Samaka Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 01:45 Antananabe Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 01:45 Anjiamalandy Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 01:45 Mandrony Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 01:45 Anorotsangana Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 01:45 Antsahabe Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 01:45 Maromokotra Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 01:45 Marokitrana Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 01:45 Ampiambesa Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 01:45 Antetezampolaka Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 01:00 Ingoane Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 02:45 Farafangana Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 02:45 Loharano Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 01:15 Ambodimanga Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 01:15 Ivontaka Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 01:15 Antanambe Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:30 Marovazha Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:30 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:30 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:30 Marofototra Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 05:15 Andriana Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:15 Ampanakana Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:15 Fararano Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:15 Ambanisanjo Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:15 Antsorokaka Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:15 Antanifatsy Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:15 Mahatsaborimaika Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:15 Tsiboka Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:15 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Belo-sur-Mer Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Marofihitsa Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Ambararata Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Ankevo Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Ankiliabo Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Ampombilava Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Ambatoxavavy Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Andrafia Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Anjiabe Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Nosy Faly Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Soahazo Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 02:00 Macalopa Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:15 Vila Luisa Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:15 D'lhelo Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:15 Linchica Mozambique  0.1