Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELOISE-21
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
23 Jan 2021 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELOISE-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 54 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.3 m (23 Jan 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 54 km/h 1.3 m 67 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 137 km/h 2.2 m 608 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

137 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 23 Jan 2021 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 17 Jan 2021 06:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 17 Jan 2021 12:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 17 Jan 2021 18:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 18 Jan 2021 00:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 18 Jan 2021 06:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 18 Jan 2021 12:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 18 Jan 2021 18:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 19 Jan 2021 00:00 122 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 19 Jan 2021 06:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 19 Jan 2021 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 19 Jan 2021 18:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 20 Jan 2021 00:00 61 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 13 20 Jan 2021 06:00 65 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 14 20 Jan 2021 12:00 76 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 15 20 Jan 2021 18:00 83 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 16 21 Jan 2021 00:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 21 Jan 2021 06:00 68 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 18 21 Jan 2021 12:00 101 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 19 21 Jan 2021 18:00 130 - - - - - - -
GREEN 20 22 Jan 2021 00:00 122 - - - - - - -
GREEN 21 22 Jan 2021 06:00 126 - - - - - - -
GREEN 22 22 Jan 2021 12:00 137 - - - - - - -
GREEN 23 22 Jan 2021 18:00 137 -
- - - - - Mozambique
GREEN 24 23 Jan 2021 00:00 133 -
- - - - - Mozambique
GREEN 25 23 Jan 2021 06:00 90 -
- - - - - Mozambique
GREEN 26 23 Jan 2021 12:00 61 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 23 Jan 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmTanzania, Malawi, Zambia, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, South Africa, Mozambique, Swaziland3,014,301
+
Tanzania2,844 
Zambia81,768 
Malawi11 
Mozambique11,555 
Zimbabwe8,012 
Madagascar2,108 
South Africa2,751,258 
Swaziland156,745 
50-100 mmTanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Reunion, South Africa, Swaziland15,981,964
+
Tanzania1,076,572 
Zambia648,901 
Malawi197,388 
Mozambique1,109,985 
Zimbabwe2,327,142 
Madagascar7,720,959 
Reunion564,972 
South Africa1,191,460 
Swaziland1,144,585 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 17 Jan 2021 06:00 62 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 17 Jan 2021 12:00 94 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 3 17 Jan 2021 18:00 142 -
- - - - - Zimbabwe, Mozambique
Blue 4 18 Jan 2021 00:00 281 Few people
- - - - Mozambique
Blue 5 18 Jan 2021 06:00 384 -
- - - - - Mozambique
Blue 6 18 Jan 2021 12:00 191 20 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 7 18 Jan 2021 18:00 103 Few people
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 8 19 Jan 2021 00:00 253 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 19 Jan 2021 06:00 81 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 10 19 Jan 2021 12:00 82 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 11 19 Jan 2021 18:00 201 210 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 12 20 Jan 2021 00:00 213 80 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 13 20 Jan 2021 06:00 186 180 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 14 20 Jan 2021 12:00 198 -
- - - - - Madagascar, Mozambique
Blue 15 20 Jan 2021 18:00 150 3 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 16 21 Jan 2021 00:00 54 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 17 21 Jan 2021 06:00 86 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 18 21 Jan 2021 12:00 99 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 19 21 Jan 2021 18:00 89 -
- - - - - Zambia
Blue 20 22 Jan 2021 00:00 140 -
- - - - - Mozambique
Blue 21 22 Jan 2021 06:00 160 70 thousand
- - - - Mozambique
Blue 22 22 Jan 2021 12:00 117 -
- - - - - Mozambique
Blue 23 22 Jan 2021 18:00 138 7 thousand
- - - - Mozambique, Madagascar
Blue 24 23 Jan 2021 00:00 102 Few people
- - - - Mozambique
Blue 25 23 Jan 2021 06:00 80 -
- - - - - Mozambique
Blue 26 23 Jan 2021 12:00 238 3 million
- - - - Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Reunion, South Africa, Swaziland




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

1.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  1.3m in Chiloane, Mozambique. This height is estimated for 23 Jan 2021 12:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 23 Jan 2021 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
23 Jan 2021 12:00 Chiloane Mozambique  1.3
26 Jan 2021 11:00 Voloina Madagascar  0.3
26 Jan 2021 11:00 Manambia Madagascar  0.3
26 Jan 2021 11:00 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.3
26 Jan 2021 11:00 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.3
26 Jan 2021 11:00 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.3
26 Jan 2021 05:30 Mahalevona Madagascar  0.3
26 Jan 2021 11:00 Ambanizana Madagascar  0.3
26 Jan 2021 11:00 Benjana Madagascar  0.3
26 Jan 2021 11:00 Rantabe Madagascar  0.3
26 Jan 2021 11:00 Tampolo Madagascar  0.3
26 Jan 2021 05:30 Maintimbato Madagascar  0.3
23 Jan 2021 15:15 Natalia Mozambique  0.3
23 Jan 2021 15:15 Inhassoro Mozambique  0.3
23 Jan 2021 15:15 Catine Mozambique  0.3
26 Jan 2021 11:00 Antalavia Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 15:30 Afonso Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 15:30 Asneira Mozambique  0.2
26 Jan 2021 11:00 Fananehana Madagascar  0.2
24 Jan 2021 14:15 Marovoha Madagascar  0.2
24 Jan 2021 14:15 Ampitily Madagascar  0.2
24 Jan 2021 14:15 Ambalatsingy Madagascar  0.2
24 Jan 2021 14:15 Ankinganomby Madagascar  0.2
24 Jan 2021 14:15 Singalana Madagascar  0.2
24 Jan 2021 14:15 Antaribao Madagascar  0.2
24 Jan 2021 14:15 Anjiajia Madagascar  0.2
24 Jan 2021 14:15 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.2
24 Jan 2021 14:15 Tsaratanana Madagascar  0.2
24 Jan 2021 14:15 Ampasindava Madagascar  0.2
24 Jan 2021 14:15 Ankinganifahatelo Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 16:00 Divinhe Mozambique  0.2
24 Jan 2021 14:00 Antetikireja Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 16:30 Ambanhe Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 16:30 Metambanhe Mozambique  0.2
26 Jan 2021 11:00 Anoromby Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 16:45 Ampara Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 16:45 Nova Sofala Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 15:00 Dinguiduane Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 15:00 Jo Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 15:00 Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 15:00 Laisse Mozambique  0.2
26 Jan 2021 11:15 Rantranavona Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 14:45 Castigo Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 14:45 Xetoquica Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 14:45 Vilanculos Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 14:45 China Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 14:45 Mariano Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 17:00 Manica Mozambique  0.2
24 Jan 2021 13:45 Ambodiadabo Madagascar  0.2
24 Jan 2021 13:45 Androlavy Madagascar  0.2
26 Jan 2021 11:15 Fampotabe Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 15:15 Caulino Mozambique  0.2
26 Jan 2021 11:15 Manambolosy Madagascar  0.2
26 Jan 2021 11:15 Fahambahy Madagascar  0.2
26 Jan 2021 11:15 Tampolo Madagascar  0.2
26 Jan 2021 11:15 Andilamboahangy Madagascar  0.2
26 Jan 2021 11:15 Mananara Madagascar  0.2
26 Jan 2021 11:15 Ambatofitarafana Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 23:15 Beula Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 23:15 Morrumbene Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 23:15 Maxixe Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 23:15 Chicoque Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 23:15 Inhambane Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 23:15 Guilande Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 23:15 Marivate Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 23:15 Banga Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 23:15 Praia do Tofo Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 23:15 Miramar Mozambique  0.2
24 Jan 2021 13:30 Ananalava Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 14:45 Chichocane Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 14:45 Mahoa Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 14:45 Uetela Mozambique  0.2
26 Jan 2021 11:00 Seranambe Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 22:00 Catembe Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 22:00 Maputo Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 22:00 Joannisse Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 22:00 Maziba Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 22:00 Aiai Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 22:00 Cimbene Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 22:00 Canhamba Mozambique  0.1
24 Jan 2021 12:00 Bejongoro Madagascar  0.1
24 Jan 2021 12:00 Ampandrano Madagascar  0.1
24 Jan 2021 12:00 Andrafialava Madagascar  0.1
24 Jan 2021 12:00 Mandrony Madagascar  0.1
24 Jan 2021 12:00 Maromanjo Madagascar  0.1
24 Jan 2021 12:00 Anompaka Madagascar  0.1
24 Jan 2021 12:00 Madirotelo Madagascar  0.1
24 Jan 2021 12:00 Mahitsihazo Madagascar  0.1
24 Jan 2021 12:00 Andamoty Madagascar  0.1
24 Jan 2021 12:00 Marokitrana Madagascar  0.1
24 Jan 2021 12:00 Bevoay Madagascar  0.1
24 Jan 2021 12:00 Maromandia Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 20:15 Vila Luisa Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 20:15 D'lhelo Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 20:15 Linchica Mozambique  0.1
24 Jan 2021 12:00 Andamoty Madagascar  0.1
24 Jan 2021 12:00 Madirobe Madagascar  0.1
24 Jan 2021 12:00 Ampapamena Madagascar  0.1
26 Jan 2021 11:15 Ambatoharana Madagascar  0.1
24 Jan 2021 13:30 Analalava Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 22:15 Bambe Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 22:15 Maguemba Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 22:15 Macashale Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 18:00 Masokoamena Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 18:00 Katsepy Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 18:00 Majunga Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 18:00 Boanamary Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 18:00 Ampitilova Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 18:00 Moraharivo Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 18:00 Antsianitia Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 19:30 Afo Mozambique  0.1
24 Jan 2021 12:45 Anjajavy Madagascar  0.1
24 Jan 2021 12:45 Ankaranakatra Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 19:15 Macanzele Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 17:45 Somanga Tanzania  0.1
23 Jan 2021 17:45 Pombwe Tanzania  0.1
23 Jan 2021 17:45 Jaja Tanzania  0.1
24 Jan 2021 12:45 Mahabo Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 22:15 Mabsil Mozambique  0.1
25 Jan 2021 14:45 Manampatra Madagascar  0.1
25 Jan 2021 14:45 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.1
25 Jan 2021 14:45 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 14:15 Ambalabao Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 14:15 Bevatry Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 14:15 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 23:15 Bela Vista Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 23:15 Machavene Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 19:45 Gueima Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 19:30 Guiducua Mozambique  0.1
24 Jan 2021 16:00 Ampombilava Madagascar  0.1
24 Jan 2021 16:00 Andriana Madagascar  0.1
24 Jan 2021 16:00 Ambatoxavavy Madagascar  0.1
24 Jan 2021 16:00 Andrafia Madagascar  0.1
24 Jan 2021 16:00 Anjiabe Madagascar  0.1
24 Jan 2021 16:00 Nosy Faly Madagascar  0.1
24 Jan 2021 16:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 19:00 Manomba Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 19:00 Maintirano Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 19:00 Belailay Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 19:00 Andemba Madagascar  0.1
24 Jan 2021 13:45 Antanamazava Madagascar  0.1
24 Jan 2021 13:45 Ambatomainty Madagascar  0.1
24 Jan 2021 13:45 Manehoko Madagascar  0.1
24 Jan 2021 13:45 Antanimandry Madagascar  0.1
24 Jan 2021 13:45 Anjabe Madagascar  0.1
24 Jan 2021 13:45 Andranomena Madagascar  0.1
25 Jan 2021 14:45 Voalavo Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 18:45 Marovazha Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 18:45 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 18:45 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 18:45 Marofototra Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 18:45 Ampanihy Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 19:00 Tambohorano Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 19:00 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 19:00 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.1
24 Jan 2021 13:30 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.1