Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for MARIAN-21
in Cocos (Keeling) Islands,

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MARIAN-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 115 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (28 Feb 03:45 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Cocos Is.)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 115 km/h 0.2 m 177 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 169 km/h 0.2 m 1111 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

169 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 28 Feb 2021 00:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 25 Feb 2021 12:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 26 Feb 2021 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 26 Feb 2021 12:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 27 Feb 2021 00:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 27 Feb 2021 12:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 28 Feb 2021 00:00 151 - - - - - - -




Impact estimation for the next 72h
Download:





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 28 Feb 2021 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
50-100 mmCocos (Keeling) Islands596 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 25 Feb 2021 12:00 252 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 26 Feb 2021 00:00 188 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 26 Feb 2021 12:00 246 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 27 Feb 2021 00:00 315 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 27 Feb 2021 12:00 295 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 28 Feb 2021 00:00 1140 -
- - - - - Cocos (Keeling) Islands




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in The Settlement, Christmas Island. This height is estimated for 28 Feb 2021 03:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 28 Feb 2021 00:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
28 Feb 2021 03:45 The Settlement Christmas Island  0.2