Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for FELICIA-21 Off-shore from 14 Jul 2021 09:00 UTC to 21 Jul 2021 03:00 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FELICIA-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	HWRF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	198 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (16 Jul 16:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	--

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
HWRF Current	198 km/h	0.2 m	260 mm	0.5
HWRF Overall	241 km/h	0.5 m	502 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 16 Jul 2021 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	14 Jul 2021 06:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	14 Jul 2021 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	14 Jul 2021 18:00	112	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	15 Jul 2021 00:00	158	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	15 Jul 2021 06:00	155	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	15 Jul 2021 12:00	148	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	15 Jul 2021 18:00	176	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	16 Jul 2021 00:00	180	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	16 Jul 2021 06:00	191	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	16 Jul 2021 12:00	198	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

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Impact estimation for the next 72h

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N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000
1	14 Jul 2021 06:00	327	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	14 Jul 2021 12:00	153	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	14 Jul 2021 18:00	198	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	15 Jul 2021 00:00	325	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	15 Jul 2021 06:00	249	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	15 Jul 2021 12:00	169	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	15 Jul 2021 18:00	305	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	16 Jul 2021 00:00	248	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	16 Jul 2021 06:00	336	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	16 Jul 2021 12:00	313	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Dimas, Mexico. This height is estimated for 16 Jul 2021 16:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 16 Jul 2021 12:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	16 Jul 2021 16:00	Dimas	Mexico	0.2
	16 Jul 2021 16:15	La Fortuna	Mexico	0.2
	16 Jul 2021 16:15	El Cardoncito	Mexico	0.2
	16 Jul 2021 16:15	Los Frailes	Mexico	0.2
	16 Jul 2021 15:45	Marmol	Mexico	0.2
	16 Jul 2021 15:45	Perihuete	Mexico	0.2
	16 Jul 2021 17:15	Rancho Conejo	Mexico	0.2
	16 Jul 2021 17:15	El Tomale	Mexico	0.2
	16 Jul 2021 16:15	Las Palmas	Mexico	0.2
	16 Jul 2021 16:15	La Ribera	Mexico	0.2
	16 Jul 2021 16:15	Punta Colorada	Mexico	0.2
	16 Jul 2021 16:15	Punta Arena	Mexico	0.2
	16 Jul 2021 17:15	Agua Fresca	Mexico	0.2
	16 Jul 2021 17:15	Cunano	Mexico	0.2
	16 Jul 2021 17:30	Los Inocentes	Mexico	0.2
	16 Jul 2021 17:45	Florida	Mexico	0.2
	16 Jul 2021 17:45	Mazatlan	Mexico	0.2
	16 Jul 2021 16:00	Los Tesos	Mexico	0.2
	16 Jul 2021 13:30	Maalaea	United States	0.2
	16 Jul 2021 13:30	Kihei	United States	0.2
	16 Jul 2021 13:30	Keawakapu	United States	0.2
	16 Jul 2021 13:30	Makena	United States	0.2
	16 Jul 2021 13:30	Keoneoio	United States	0.2
	16 Jul 2021 13:30	Ulupalakua	United States	0.2
	16 Jul 2021 17:15	Todos Santos	Mexico	0.2
	16 Jul 2021 17:30	San Jose del Cabo	Mexico	0.1
	16 Jul 2021 15:15	Ensenada de los Muertos	Mexico	0.1
	16 Jul 2021 15:15	La Trinadad	Mexico	0.1
	16 Jul 2021 17:15	El Pescadero	Mexico	0.1
	16 Jul 2021 13:30	Olowalu	United States	0.1
	16 Jul 2021 13:30	Waihee	United States	0.1
	16 Jul 2021 13:30	Hyashi Village	United States	0.1
	16 Jul 2021 13:30	Wailuku	United States	0.1
	16 Jul 2021 13:30	Kahului	United States	0.1
	16 Jul 2021 13:30	Puunene	United States	0.1
	16 Jul 2021 13:30	Village Eight	United States	0.1
	16 Jul 2021 13:30	Hawaiian Village	United States	0.1
	16 Jul 2021 13:30	Paia	United States	0.1
	16 Jul 2021 13:30	Haiku	United States	0.1
	16 Jul 2021 13:30	Pauwela	United States	0.1
	16 Jul 2021 16:15	La Tinaja	Mexico	0.1
	16 Jul 2021 13:45	Kahakuloa	United States	0.1
	16 Jul 2021 13:45	Ulumalu	United States	0.1
	16 Jul 2021 13:45	Lahaina	United States	0.1
	16 Jul 2021 17:30	Pozo de Cota	Mexico	0.1
	16 Jul 2021 13:45	Laupahoehoe	United States	0.1
	16 Jul 2021 13:45	Papaaloa	United States	0.1
	16 Jul 2021 13:45	Weloka	United States	0.1
	16 Jul 2021 13:45	Ninole	United States	0.1
	16 Jul 2021 13:45	Hakalau	United States	0.1
	16 Jul 2021 13:45	Honomu	United States	0.1
	16 Jul 2021 13:45	Pepeekeo	United States	0.1
	16 Jul 2021 13:45	Wainaku	United States	0.1
	16 Jul 2021 13:45	Papaikou	United States	0.1
	16 Jul 2021 13:45	Paukaa	United States	0.1
	16 Jul 2021 13:45	Hilo	United States	0.1
	16 Jul 2021 16:00	El Tule	Mexico	0.1
	16 Jul 2021 13:30	Pukoo	United States	0.1
	16 Jul 2021 13:30	Kaanapali	United States	0.1
	16 Jul 2021 13:30	Puukolii	United States	0.1
	16 Jul 2021 13:30	Crater Village	United States	0.1
	16 Jul 2021 13:30	Honokahua	United States	0.1
	16 Jul 2021 13:30	Mahinahina Camp	United States	0.1
	16 Jul 2021 13:30	Kapalua	United States	0.1